Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!!

[cavello]

Football matches often throw up lucky winners and unlucky losers. Here are my probabilities of the results of the matches based on the total amount of shots/attempts at goal by each side. I've assessed the chance of a goal from an attempted to by about 0.12 (p) and a miss 0.88 (q) with n equal to the number of atttempts and by using the binomial expansion based on this data we can model a table of probable results. We can then compare this resultant probability with the actual result to highlight "fluke results" Expansion based on (p +q)^{n<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />}

How could we use this information any ideas out there? One idea is to look for teams that have sufferrd/benefitted from 2 lucky games over a short period and then maybe they will offer betting opportuniities because they are too short/long for subsequent matches. Any ideas for a possible system here? *Blackburn under my method would be considered unlucky but because Everton had a player sent off early I have not included them here. UNLUCKY TEAMS------------------------------------------- LUCKY TEAMS

CHELSEA	62%	0-3	13%	MIDDLESBORO
COLCHESTER	47%	0-2	20%	HUDDERSFIELD
CHESTER	64%	1-2	12%	STOCKPORT
BOSTON	43%	0-1	24%	GRIMSBY
NOTTS FOREST	47%	1-2	23%	SWANSEA
STOKE	59%	0-3	15%	CARDIFF
COLCHESTER	47%	0-2	20%	HUDDERSFIELD

I will put up tomorrow the teams that where lucky/unlucky to be involved in a drawn match. I will try to keep this going till the end of the season to assess the potential of any systems/ideas. N.B. Some of last weeks unlucky teams were Mansfields,Cheltenham,Luton,Middlesboro,QPR,Bolton W,Bradford,Huddrsfield and Blackburn.

[cavello]

Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! Only one match merited consideration as a lucky/unlucky draw. Arsenal 65% 1-1 10% Bolton Wanderers % quoted are for probability of winning the match based on total attempts at goal and using this with a binomial distribution.