cavello Posted February 11, 2006 Share Posted February 11, 2006 Football matches often throw up lucky winners and unlucky losers. Here are my probabilities of the results of the matches based on the total amount of shots/attempts at goal by each side. I've assessed the chance of a goal from an attempted to by about 0.12 (p) and a miss 0.88 (q) with n equal to the number of atttempts and by using the binomial expansion based on this data we can model a table of probable results. We can then compare this resultant probability with the actual result to highlight "fluke results" Expansion based on (p +q)n<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> How could we use this information any ideas out there? One idea is to look for teams that have sufferrd/benefitted from 2 lucky games over a short period and then maybe they will offer betting opportuniities because they are too short/long for subsequent matches. Any ideas for a possible system here? *Blackburn under my method would be considered unlucky but because Everton had a player sent off early I have not included them here. UNLUCKY TEAMS------------------------------------------- LUCKY TEAMS CHELSEA 62% 0-3 13% MIDDLESBORO COLCHESTER 47% 0-2 20% HUDDERSFIELD CHESTER 64% 1-2 12% STOCKPORT BOSTON 43% 0-1 24% GRIMSBY NOTTS FOREST 47% 1-2 23% SWANSEA STOKE 59% 0-3 15% CARDIFF COLCHESTER 47% 0-2 20% HUDDERSFIELD I will put up tomorrow the teams that where lucky/unlucky to be involved in a drawn match. I will try to keep this going till the end of the season to assess the potential of any systems/ideas. N.B. Some of last weeks unlucky teams were Mansfields,Cheltenham,Luton,Middlesboro,QPR,Bolton W,Bradford,Huddrsfield and Blackburn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 12, 2006 Author Share Posted February 12, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! Only one match merited consideration as a lucky/unlucky draw. Arsenal 65% 1-1 10% Bolton Wanderers % quoted are for probability of winning the match based on total attempts at goal and using this with a binomial distribution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 12, 2006 Author Share Posted February 12, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! will be following this - but what do you class as a lucky winner? Cardiff are 9 points above stoke!!!!!!!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! Fcuk me cavelloman, that first post was a bit big!:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 12, 2006 Author Share Posted February 12, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! I don't know what when wrong with the first post I copied and pasted form word!!! I think you can consider a team unlucky if they have loads more goal attempts but lose the match. Of course this lost could be down to having poor strikers!!! From the match you refer too -here are the bare stats Cardiff 6 attempts at goall 5 on target Stoke 12 attempts at goal 4 on target In pretty obvious form the above figures Cardiff were flattered by their 3 goal victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 12, 2006 Share Posted February 12, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! I don't know what when wrong with the first post I copied and pasted form word!!! I think you can consider a team unlucky if they have loads more goal attempts but lose the match. Of course this lost could be down to having poor strikers!!! From the match you refer too -here are the bare stats Cardiff 6 attempts at goall 5 on target Stoke 12 attempts at goal 4 on target In pretty obvious form the above figures Cardiff were flattered by their 3 goal victory. makes sense mate! Good luck. :ok I feel guilty for having beaten stoke now - Valiant, tell me I'm wrong :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 19, 2006 Author Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! UNLUCKY LOSERS TEAM % WINNING SCORE DATE CHELSEA 62 0-3 11/02/2006 COLCHESTER 47 0-2 11/02/2006 BOSTON 43 0-1 11/02/2006 NOTTS FOREST 47 1-2 11/02/2006 STOKE 59 0-3 11/02/2006 CHESTERFIELD 55 0-1 14/02/2006 BURNLEY 62 0-1 15/02/2006 SWINDON 52 2-3 18/02/2006 TRANMERE 55 0-1 18/02/2006 NOTS COUNTY 43 1-2 18/02/2006 LUCKY WINNERS TEAMS MIDDLESBORO 13 3-0 11/02/2006 HUDDERSFIELD 20 2-0 11/02/2006 STOCKPORT 12 2-1 11/02/2006 GRIMSBY 24 1-0 11/02/2006 CARDIFF 15 3-0 11/02/2006 DONCASTER 18 1-0 14/02/2006 WOLVES 12 1-0 15/02/2006 ROTHERHAM 19 3-2 18/02/2006 BARNSLEY 15 1-0 18/02/2005 PETERBORO 25 2-1 18/02/2006 UNLUCKY TO DRAW ARSENAL 65 1-1 11/02/2006 OXFORD 58 1-1 14/02/2006 LEICESTER 62 2-2 15/02/2006 SHEFFIELD U 59 1-1 15/02/2006 LEICESTER * 49 1-1 18/02/2006 SCUNTHORPE 50 2-2 18/02/2006 WYCOMBE 52 1-1 18/02/2006 CHELTENHAM 50 1-1 18/02/2006 LUCKY TO DRAW BOLTON WANDERERS 10 1-1 11/02/2006 MACCCLESFIELD 16 1-1 14/02/2006 DERBY 13 2-2 15/02/2005 READING 15 1-1 15/02/006 LEEDS* 23 1-1 18/02/2006 SWANSEA 21 2-2 18/02/2006 BOSTON 17 1-1 18/02/2006 OXFORD 21 1-1 18/02/2006 *PLAYER SENT OFF FOR LEICESTER BUT STILL MANGED TO HAVE MORE GOAL ATTEMPTS. Leicester first team to appear twice in unlucky list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! I'm sorry but I'm unwilling to support any system that classes Middlesbrough as a lucky team! :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkayer Posted February 23, 2006 Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! Very interesting. Will be watching this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 26, 2006 Author Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Unlucky Losers-lucky Winners!!! UNLUCKY LOSERS TEAM % WINNING SCORE DATE CHELSEA 62 0-3 11/02/2006 COLCHESTER 47 0-2 11/02/2006 BOSTON 43 0-1 11/02/2006 NOTTS FOREST 47 1-2 11/02/2006 STOKE 59 0-3 11/02/2006 CHESTERFIELD 55 0-1 14/02/2006 BURNLEY 62 0-1 15/02/2006 SWINDON 52 2-3 18/02/2006 TRANMERE 55 0-1 18/02/2006 NOTTS COUNTY 43 1-2 18/02/2006 COLCHESTER 46 0-1 25/02/2006 ** ARSENAL 46 0-1 25/02/2006 ** YEOVIL 46 0-2 25/02/2006 SHREWSBURY 50 0-1 25/02/2006 TORQUAY 56 0-2 25/02/2006 LUCKY WINNERS TEAMS MIDDLESBORO 13 3-0 11/02/2006 HUDDERSFIELD 20 2-0 11/02/2006 STOCKPORT 12 2-1 11/02/2006 GRIMSBY 24 1-0 11/02/2006 CARDIFF 15 3-0 11/02/2006 DONCASTER 18 1-0 14/02/2006 WOLVES 12 1-0 15/02/2006 ROTHERHAM 19 3-2 18/02/2006 BARNSLEY 15 1-0 18/02/2005 PETERBORO 25 2-1 18/02/2006 BARNSLEY 27 1-0 25/02/2006 BLACKBURN 21 1-0 25/02/2006 BLACKPOOL 21 2-0 25/02/2006 BURY 20 1-0 25/02/2006 MANSFIELD 18 2-0 25/02/2006 UNLUCKY TO DRAW ARSENAL 65 1-1 11/02/2006 OXFORD 58 1-1 14/02/2006 LEICESTER 62 2-2 15/02/2006 SHEFFIELD U 59 1-1 15/02/2006 LEICESTER 49 1-1 18/02/2006 ** SCUNTHORPE 50 2-2 18/02/2006 WYCOMBE 52 1-1 18/02/2006 CHELTENHAM 50 1-1 18/02/2006 DONCASTER 52 1-1 25/02/2006 ROCHDALE 64 1-1 25/02/2006 LUCKY TO DRAW BOLTON WANDERERS 10 1-1 11/02/2006 MACCCLESFIELD 16 1-1 14/02/2006 DERBY 13 2-2 15/02/2005 READING 15 1-1 15/02/006 LEEDS* 23 1-1 18/02/2006 SWANSEA 21 2-2 18/02/2006 BOSTON 17 1-1 18/02/2006 OXFORD 21 1-1 18/02/2006 HARTLEPOOL 17 1-1 25/02/2006 CHELTENHAM 11 1-1 25/02/2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.