Clotty Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 To give a very brief introduction, I'm fairly new to betting as anything more than a hobby and I specialise in football. Now the introduction is over, I'll get to the point. The rest of the season will basically be an experiment for me to bed into this market. I'm going to begin with a safe a steady strategy at first and after a month of two I might reasses my success and begin to take a few more risks, such as double bets, trixie bets,possible raising the stakes, or adding more categories (you'll know what I mean by categories within a minute of further reading). My basic strategy to begin with will be to rate my bets in either one of two categories. Category one, I'm calling 'confident of outcome' and category two, I've named 'larger risk of losing, but risk worth taking'. Obviously, it wouldn't be sound money management from me to put equal stakes into both categories with category one bets having a higher chance of success that category two bets, so I will be placing 2% of my start bank on category one bets and half that on category two bets. It's simple and I hope it works. Being realistic, I'm not expecting a great deal from the rest of the season. If I manage to break even, but learn some very important lessons along the way that should help bring profits next year, I'll be thrilled. Maybe this isn't strictly a strategy or system as such, more the trials and triumphs of a relative newbie, but I decided to make this post anyway. Hopefully I'll be able to learn things for you along the way and you may even learn a few things from me. Bets for this weekend will follow shortly. Wish me luck, I'll need it. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Good luck, Clotty - hope you get some winners! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Clotty's System For this weekend I'm backing the following... Catergory 1 Bets - 'Confident of outcome' Date: 4th Feb. 2006 14:30 Kick-Off Bayern Munich v. Leverkusen - Bayern Munich to win (1.36) Werder Bremen v. Mainz - Werder Bremen to win (1.30) 15:00 Kick-Off Bolton v. Wigan - Bolton to win (1.90) Man. Utd v Fulham - Man. Utd to win (1.30) WBA v. Blackburn - Blackburn to win or draw (1.38) West Ham v. Sunderland (1.50) - West Hame to win (1.50) 19:00 Kick-Off R. Madrid v. Espanyol - Madrid to win (1.33) Date: 5th Feb. 2006 14:00 Kick-Off Fiorentina v. Leece - Fiorentina to win (1.30) Inter v. Chievo - Inter to win (1.33) Juventus v. Udinese - Juventus to win (1.25) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Category 2 Bets - 'Larger risks, but worth it' Date: 4th Feb. 2006 14:30 Kick-Off Bayern Munich v. Leverkusen - over 2.5 goals (1.60) Schalke v. Dortmund - Schalke to win (1.80) 15:00 Kick-Off Crewe v. Reading - Reading to win (1.44) Leeds v. QPR - Leeds to win (1.66) Stoke v. Preston - Preston to win or draw (1.36) 19:00 Kick-Off R. Madrid v. Espanyol - over 2.5 goals (1.65) 21:00 Kick-Off Deportivo v. Valencia - Valencia to win, draw no bet (1.83) Date: 5th Feb. 2006 14:00 Kick-Off Bari v. Avellino - under 2.5 goals (1.60) I'm using Bet365 as my reference for the odds, by the way. Some of you might also find it parculiar that I've placed some of the Championship matches under category two, but generally, my expertise is with the top european leagues and although I know a good amount about the Championship, I find the lower down you go, the more unpredictable the outcomes can be. (Swansea's loss to struggling Gillingham earlier this week is a prime example of this). :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citizen Kane Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Good luck Clotty. Played around with staking plans myself last year and settled on categorising by sports (Rugby, Cricket, Football, Other) and by competitions (Six Nations, Super14, EPL etc ....). Then decided on a "bank" for each sport and betting level stakes at based on that bank. Found it useful to be able to review profitability of various sports, competitions and bet types. As with all strategies you still have to consistently pick winners to succeed but staking disciplines do help to manage risk. Will watch with interest. Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Thanks for the support, and I'll be posting the results of this weekend later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Catergory 1 Bets - 'Confident of outcome' Date: 4th Feb. 2006 14:30 Kick-Off Bayern Munich v. Leverkusen - Bayern Munich to win (1.36) :D Werder Bremen v. Mainz - Werder Bremen to win (1.30) :D 15:00 Kick-Off Bolton v. Wigan - Bolton to win (1.90) :wall Man. Utd v Fulham - Man. Utd to win (1.30) :D WBA v. Blackburn - Blackburn to win or draw (1.38) :wall West Ham v. Sunderland - West Hame to win (1.50) :D 19:00 Kick-Off R. Madrid v. Espanyol - Madrid to win (1.33) :D Date: 5th Feb. 2006 14:00 Kick-Off Fiorentina v. Leece - Fiorentina to win (1.30) :D Inter v. Chievo - Inter to win (1.33) :D Juventus v. Udinese - Juventus to win (1.25) :D ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Category 2 Bets - 'Larger risks, but worth it' Date: 4th Feb. 2006 14:30 Kick-Off Bayern Munich v. Leverkusen - over 2.5 goals (1.60) :wall Schalke v. Dortmund - Schalke to win (1.80) :wall 15:00 Kick-Off Crewe v. Reading - Reading to win (1.44) :D Leeds v. QPR - Leeds to win (1.66) :D Stoke v. Preston - Preston to win or draw (1.36) :D 19:00 Kick-Off R. Madrid v. Espanyol - over 2.5 goals (1.65) :D 21:00 Kick-Off Deportivo v. Valencia - Valencia to win, draw no bet (1.83) :D Date: 5th Feb. 2006 14:00 Kick-Off Bari v. Avellino - under 2.5 goals (1.60) :D Week 1 Results... Total staked28 Total returned30.88 Yield10%Winners14 Losers4 Strike Rate78% Current bank102.88 Profit/Loss2.88 :cow Overall, I'm pleased. With a level staking system of 10 units per bets (a strategy I was considering before) my profits would be higher, but I'd be much more susceptable to bankruptcy if a losing streak occurs. Long may the profits continue ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Good start Clotty:ok I think this thread is a good idea, if a rookie bettor is brave enough to post his selections & strategies & accept guidance/constructive criticism along the way from the wealth of experience we have at PL, then it can only help that person with his betting in the future & perhaps be a reference for other rookies.perhaps we can all learn something along the way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 14, 2006 Author Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Almost forgot about this thread! I decided not to bet on Saturday as I had a very bad feeling that shock results could be on the cards. Anyway, just in time for tonights games. Here are my bets for tonight. Redbridge vs. Chelmsford City (away win at 1.90) Carlisle vs. Shrewsbury (home win at 1.61) Wrexham vs. Rushden (home win at 1.72) Norwich City vs. Brighton (home win at 1.80) Colchester vs. Walsall (home win at 1.57) Swansea vs. Bradford (home win at 1.75) Real Madrid vs Zaragoza (over 2.5 goals at 1.57) *Sorry the details like game times and game competitions weren't posted, but I had to do this in a rush. Hopefully profit to follow ... :hope EDIT: forgot to mention I have backed Ipswich and Palace too. The Copa Del Ray and all Championship games are Category 1, with all of the rest category 2. (EDIT MADE JUST AFTER HALF NINE) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 14, 2006 Author Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Firstly, I haven't included the Crystal Palace and Ipswich games in the results simply because I didn't post it early enough and don't want to leave myself open to the criticism it might bring for bad etiquette. Now onto the main part ... Catergory 1 Bets - 'Confident of outcome' Date: 14th Feb. 2006 19:45 Kick-Off Real Madrid v. Zaragoza - over 2.5 goals (1.57) :D Norwich v. Brighton - Norwich to win (1.80) :D ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Category 2 Bets - 'Larger risks, but worth it' Date: 14th Feb. 2006 19:45 Kick-Off Colchester v. Walsall - Colchester to win (1.57) :wall Swansea v. Bradford - Swansea to win (1.75) :wall Carlisle v. Shrewsbury - Carlisle to win (1.61) :wall Wrexham v. Rushden - Wrexham to win (1.72) :) Redbridge v. Chemlsford - Chelmsford to win (1.90) :D Bank Details After Week 2: Bet Record Total staked37 Total returned41.24 Yield11.5%Winners18 Losers7 Strike Rate72% Current bank104.24 Profit/Loss4.24 So, I've managed to make a profit today even without the two discounted games (which I would have won money on). I'm pleased not only because of the increased in profit and yield improvement, but also because I've learned a few key lessons already. However, I still think I can improve and expect that now (and also when I take more risks) I am not making the profit I could because of silly blunders. I'll go into those lessons later on when I have a good amount to make a decent lengthy post, instead of scattering them all over this thread. Decent evenings work methinks. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 15, 2006 Author Share Posted February 15, 2006 Re: Clotty's System I've got several games on for tonight. Rosenborg v. Zenit (backing Zenit on asian handicap) @ 1.75 Rosenborg v. Zenit (double chance X2) @ 2 Schalke v. Espanyol (home win) @ 1.8 Schalke v. Espanyol (double chance 1X) @ 1.2 Udinese v. Lens (double chance 1X) @ 1.25 Bolton v. Marseille (double chance 1X) @ 1.25 The Rosenborg v. Zenit games will be have 2 unit stake on them and the rest will have 5. (Decided to change the staking plan slightly as I'm fairly convinced now that my picks are stable enough for a slightly higher risk staking plan). :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 15, 2006 Share Posted February 15, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Hi Clotty - I've been using a similar system splitting bets into almost dead cert/seems to have value. The almost dead certs system has been slow but profitable, the seems to have value bets have flowed but in a negative way (although this may be just down to poor picks, rather than the system). Good luck mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 15, 2006 Author Share Posted February 15, 2006 Re: Clotty's System I've got several games on for tonight. Rosenborg v. Zenit (double chance X2) @ 2 At second glance it looks as if I might have written down the actual odds for this result incorrectly. It looks far too good. Is there a way to check what the odds were for games once they have been played? Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 15, 2006 Author Share Posted February 15, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Category 1 Bets - ' Confident of Outcome' (stake of 5 units) Schalke v. Espanyol (home win) @ 1.8 / Schalke 2 - 1 victors, but down a goal at half time, they made me sweat. KERCHING! :D Schalke v. Espanyol (double chance 1X) @ 1.2 / As stated above Schalke won ... :D Udinese v. Lens (double chance 1X) @ 1.25 / An emphatic 3-0 demolision brings the money home to papa :D Bolton v. Marseille (double chance 1X) @ 1.25 / Close 0-0 draw earning me a whopping 1.25 units :lol Category 2 - ' Bigger Risk But Worth Taking' (stake of 2 units) Rosenborg v. Zenit (backing Zenit on asian handicap) @ 1.75 / 2-0 to Zenit and I'm pleased with it :D Rosenborg v. Zenit (double chance X2) @ 2 / 100% success today. :clap ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good success tonight, although I'm pished I forgot about the Blackburn game on tonight. Would have had them down and got a bit more $. With hindsight I wonder why I didn't spot a bet for the Bolton game to be under 2.5, but oh well. The raising of the stakes has paid off for me thus far. Results are now as follows ... Actual bet record Total staked61 Total returned76.24 Yield1.24983625%Winners24 Losers7 Strike Rate77% Current bank115.24 Profit/Loss15.24 Also interesting to note that with the level staking system of 10 units per bet that DataPunter adopts in his very successful Hot Favourite thread I would be looking at results like this ... Level stakes Total staked310 Total returned364.5 Yield1.17580618%Current bank154.5 Profit/Loss54.5 Still, I'll keep my stakes as they are to protect myself if I get a losing streak. I'm desperately wanting to take more risks with doubles and trips, but will keep going like this for another few weeks before making another evaluation. :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porta Posted February 16, 2006 Share Posted February 16, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Hi Clotty, Nice results tonight mate,I see you are looking for a way of doing trebles ect,why not have a look at rempoli's double chance system where hes getting 3 solid selections and putting them in a treble you would of hit it tonight with the 3 that you picked Schalke v. Espanyol (double chance 1X) @ 1.2 / As stated above Schalke won ... :D Udinese v. Lens (double chance 1X) @ 1.25 / An emphatic 3-0 demolision brings the money home to papa :D Bolton v. Marseille (double chance 1X) @ 1.25 / Close 0-0 draw earning me a whopping 1.25 units :lol not to sure what you would do with the stakes for this wether you would do 5 units or maybe put the full 15 that you had on 3 singles onto the treble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 16, 2006 Author Share Posted February 16, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Thanks for that input. If I was going to use triples I think they'd definately be double chance. Every week I get several shocks from looking at the final scores, and so many punters probably get caught out with these bets. I wonder how many people lost money on Middlesbrough v. Chelsea last weekend, for example. To attempt to predict three outcomes and combine is not worth the risk in my opinion. If I did do triples, it most certainly eould be double chance or some other more 'secure' bets. I'm also thinking about laying bets, but for now I'll leave my system as it is and re-asses in a week or two. Still, thanks for the input. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 16, 2006 Share Posted February 16, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Things are looking good here Clotty, good luck when you return with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Cheers David. Righto, I haven't decided what picks I'm going for at the moment, but here is a list of the bets I'm currently considering. FA Cup Bolton to beat West Ham at 1.90 (I'm beginning to dislike this bet the more I see it). Bolton to eat West Ham at 1.5 (draw no bet) Charlton to beat Brentford at 1.51 Chelsea to beat Colchester at 1.13 English Championship Reading to beat Luton (away from home) at 1.45 (draw no bet). German Bundesliga Stuttgart to beat Mainz at 1.80 Dormund and Bremen both to score in their match at 1.61 La Liga Barcelona to beat Betis at 1.32 Real Madrid to beat Alaves at 1.28 Real Sociedad and Valencia to both score in their match at 1.83 Getafe and Atletico Madrid to both score in their match at 1.83 Le Championnat Lyon to beat Nantes at 1.46 Serie A AC Milan to beat Cagliari at 1.25 Juventus to beat Messina (away from home) at 1.66 Roma to beat Empoli at 1.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 17, 2006 Author Share Posted February 17, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Final Decision on weekend bets ... FA Cup 5 unit stake on Charlton to beat Brentford at 1.51 5 unit stake on Chelsea to beat Colchester at 1.13 5 unit stake on Newcastle to beat Southampton at 1.50 La Liga 5 units on Barcelona to beat Betis at 1.32 5 units on Real Madrid to beat Alaves at 1.28 5 units on Getafe and Atletico Madrid to both score in their match at 1.83 Serie A 5 units on AC Milan to beat Cagliari at 1.25 5 units on Roma to beat Empoli at 1.40 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 21, 2006 Author Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Clotty's System FA Cup 5 unit stake on Charlton to beat Brentford at 1.51 :D 5 unit stake on Chelsea to beat Colchester at 1.13 :D 5 unit stake on Newcastle to beat Southampton at 1.50 :D La Liga 5 units on Barcelona to beat Betis at 1.32 :D 5 units on Real Madrid to beat Alaves at 1.28 :D 5 units on Getafe and Atletico Madrid to both score in their match at 1.83 :spank Serie A 5 units on AC Milan to beat Cagliari at 1.25 :D 5 units on Roma to beat Empoli at 1.40 :D ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I'm not going to lie, that Getafe v. Atletico result really, really pissed me off. Last game of the weekend and an end to a 14 game winning streak! Really affect the look of my profits, too. :@ Still, I made money this weekend and beat the bookie, so the aim of the game was fulfilled. :clap I learned another few lessons this weekend too, well it might be too early, but I think they are reasonable conclusions... Anyway, I'll probably write a post with the whole list of lessons/notes I've made about what not to do and what to do as well as some interesting mental notes about the different mindsets of the types of gambler I believe exist in this forum. :D This week a tidy profit of about 7 units was made and my results now look like so .... Actual bet recordTotal staked101Total returned123.19Yield1.21970322%Winners31Losers8Strike Rate79%Current bank122.19Profit/Loss22.19 And also, with level stakes of 10 units per bet (a staking system that seems to be used by a good number of threads around) my results look like this ... Level stakes Total staked390 Total returned458.4 Yield1.17538518%Current bank168.4 Profit/Loss68.4 Now, I know the results are nothing to shout home about, but there ain't to bad a start for a newbie like myself, methinks. :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 21, 2006 Author Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Some bets I've got in for tonight ... 1. Madrid to lose or draw against Arsenal (double chance) 2. Thierry Henry to score at anytime vs. Madrid 3. Liverpool to get a result by way of win or draw against Benfica. 4. Liverpool Benfica to have under 2.5 goals :hope Hopefully I'll report the changes in the bank details later tonight ... EDIT: I'm having difficulties with my account and none of those bets could be made, hopefully it'll be sorted out for the weekend :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted February 23, 2006 Author Share Posted February 23, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Unfortunately the bets above didn't go through for some reason but the account issues were resolved and normality can resume... On a few occassions I've mentioned that I'm already learning one or two things about betting, which I'm putting into practice. Below are the ones I can remember after a bit of a long, tiring day... 1. You have to find value. There is no point in looking for the winner if the price you are going to get is bad. You have to set your value price and choose if you should bet or not. A prime example of this can be seen from this weekends game featuring Chelsea and Portsmouth. Chelsea will probably win, but the chances are measly odds will be offered, odds that aren't worth risking a stake of five units. Barcelona proved Chelsea lose, Middlesbrough proved Chelsea lose. I was thinking of starting to post odds I'd accept the bet at, before looking at the bookies prices, but came to the conclusion that to attempt it off the top of my head would be fairly inaccurate, but I'll see what happens and hopefully develop a method to obtain odds I'm happy to take bets at. 2. Be wary of the lower leagues. Colchester, Swansea and Carlisle are all strong teams in relation to their division, but I've lost bets with all of them. I've come to the conclusion that the lower leagues one goes have higher chances of upsets and are less predictable. 3. Don't be afraid to take calculated risks when I feel a surprise could occur. Somewhere in the European Football section of this forum I posted that I fancied Lazio to beat Fiorentina in Serie A, but didn't bet. The same happened with Arsenal to beat Real Madrid. However, I guess because the odds for these games differed from the average odds I bet at in this thread, I discarded them. I also didn't bet on Juve because I fancied Messina to get a result last week ... maybe I should have taken the risk of back Messina on a X2 double chance. I accept that I won't win all of the longer odd bets, but bets on them at Category 2 stakes could potentially win me a lot of money, without risking too much damage to profits. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ There are some others, but I don't want to say anything too prematurely, so I'll wait and seebefore posting anything other conclusions I've come to. I'm happy with my staking plan at the moment, I don't want to increase it yet, but I'll attempt double and maybe triple bets now and maybe even laying. Which brings me to ask... those of you who know about laying, is it something youy'd recommend only in a laying system ... or can it work well being mixed with backing, too. Clotty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Clotty's System results going well, keep it up! points 1 & 3 above i defintely agree with, it is finding value and not winners which is important. i have to disagree with point 2. if you are basing this only on your 3 bad games, you'd be making the mistake of wrongly cutting yourself off from potentially profitable markets in the long term. why not paper trade in these leagues for at least 100 bets and see if your opinion is still the same. one of the hardest lessons i'm trying to learn is not to write off systems / strategies just because the first few results are bad - its funny how all the systems i use now are the ones which got off to good starts - yet there are periods in all of them where if i had started at a certain point i would definitely have given them up due to a bad run. to try and avoid this problem i now try to develop systems i can back test (i'm unable to paper trade - i have to have something on every selection, pretty stupid really, its cost me!) good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Value? Absolutely! I'd rather lose a bet with value odds knowing it will land every so often, rather than chase a short-priced return. Chelsea last weekend were 1/7! Ok they won - suppose they'd got a red card and conceded a penalty in the early minutes and ended up only drawing? It can happen - so I'm with you on that. Value matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted March 1, 2006 Author Share Posted March 1, 2006 Re: Clotty's System i have to disagree with point 2. if you are basing this only on your 3 bad games, you'd be making the mistake of wrongly cutting yourself off from potentially profitable markets in the long term. why not paper trade in these leagues for at least 100 bets and see if your opinion is still the same. I did think I may have been a little to rash to come to that conclusion, but the three examples aren't the only games. Recently Reading lost to Luton and I had Sheff. Utd down to beat QPR last weekend for the PL Fantasy Competition. :spank I just find I'm much better when it comes to predicting games in the top flight, probably because I'm very familiar with those teams. I won't completely write off non top league matches, but I'll be more cautious with them. Hopefully, my bets for this weekend will be up by Friday.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Sorry, I didn't manage to get anything posted for Firday .... apologies. Anywho I've got one bet tonight in the form of a double. Chelsea + Juventus to win (both under draw no bet conditions) @ 1.6 under catagory 1 stakes. Wolves also tempts me, but I think if it wasn't for the lack of matches midweek, I wouldn't give it much thought and would class it as a no bet, so I won't bet on it just because there are few matches to choose from. :hope Clotty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Clotty's System Well, I've made profit tonight, but I can't help but feel like I've been robbed. With not long to go Juve, are down a goal and Barca drawing. Suddenly Juve equalise and things start to perk up. God's gift to football then scores for Barca and Juve take the lead in their game. Then in the dying seconds .... well you know what happened. :@ Mind, I'd be thrilled with this outcome 60 minutes into both games. So instead of winning slightly over 2.5 units, I get .5. :\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New Bank: 122.69 UNITS P/L: 22.69 UNITS Winners: 32 Losers: 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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