rooster Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 This idea is a bit crude but I think it has potential. Favouites win 33% of all flat races and 38% of jumps. Thats according to another site. I dont know if I can say the name but it doesnt matter really. I kept note of the number of favourites that won in December and till now in January. I figure that when the favourites win more than 40% of the races then the next day will maybe be a good day to lay them because the maths has to balance out again. This happened 11 times in December and 4 times so far this month. If you layed all the favourites on the next days this is what happened. 11.77 4.06 -4.6 20.88 -1.52 5.32 -2.48 2.16 -8.46 9.97 8.22 -13.59 2.97 7.37 12.54 That is a profit of 54.6 points for the 15 days. I know you have to commission to the betting exchange and offer a higher price than starting price. If you paid 5% commission on winnings and say offered 10% above the bookie odds then the profit would be 46.42 I think. Maybe this idea can be made better but I will keep a record and maybe some other people have good ideas or suggestions. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites I think Im right that over 40% of the favourites won today so tommorrow is a day to lay the favourites. There are only Irish meetings on Sunday but I do include them in my record keeping so we'll see what happens. I need to tell you as well that I dont count joint favourites or more. Only clear favourites. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 24, 2006 Author Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Sunday 22nd January 58% of the favourites won in the two Irish meetings Profit/Loss -5.16 (includes 5% commission & 10% above SP to lay) Running Total -5.16 Lay all favourites tomorrow Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 24, 2006 Author Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Monday 23rd January 36% of favourites won Profit/Loss 4.55 Running Total -0.61 (2 days laying) Tuesday is not a lay day Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites I can see where you are coming from with this mate. However, it's a hard operation for most people to lay all the favourites in one day though. Keep it up, I'm interested to see how you do long term! :ok DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted January 24, 2006 Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites I'd say in general the prices of the faves at the off, are pretty much the same as on the exchanges nowadays. The exchanges now dictate the markets, and so you probably wouldn't need to build in that extra 10%. Like Danny says, keep with it, it'll be interesting to see how it turns out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 25, 2006 Author Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Hello Danny and Chala. Thanks for your posts. Danny it is impractical for most people (me as well) but its just a raw idea that might lead to something more possible for most of us to do. It could be refined to race type, going, track etc but i dont have the time to record that information. It will be interesting to see how it performs over time. I think maybe I should record only UK races and forget the Irish ones because I dont know if the statistics include Irish racing. Does anybody know? Danny thanks for telling me that. If you dont have to give 10% on betfair thats good. Its better in our pocket than someone else :) Its like paying fees to a bank for letting them have your money. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 25, 2006 Author Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 27% of the favourites won today so no laying tomorrow. I will only post fwhen there is a lay day or this will become the most boring thread on the board:tongue2 Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Keep at it Rooster, don't be down about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 25, 2006 Author Share Posted January 25, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites I will David :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites HI ROOSTER NATIONAL HUNT FAVS 26370 BETS 9659WINS 36.6% if the horse was less than 1/2 on 1458 bets 1110 wins 76/1% hope this may be of some help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 26, 2006 Author Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Thank you % man. At the minute this is just a raw idea but I want to look at refining it into an approach that is more practical and realistic. Right now its sort of like a shotgun-hit everything approach but if thus shows a success rate then I can refine it into something more exact. Ill keep a note of your statistics. Thanks very much. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeryone Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Hi Rooster Good luck with this :ok Me and a couple of guys at work used a system were you layed the odds on fav’s. We set a target of £5 per day profit and then you walk away. Basic idea was you pick the first odds on horse if it wins (u lose) you move onto a second horse, if that wins you moved onto a third horse and if that wins you walk away for the day. Yes i know this is one of thos double up type of bets!!! A lot of the time the first horse of the day would lose and you would be £5 up and very happy. Turned £20 into £200 over a couple of months but lost the lot in one day being greedy by going for a lot more than the £5 :wall !!! Sorry don’t mean to hijack your link just trying to point out that laying the fav’s can work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 26, 2006 Author Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Hi Cherry. Thanks for that post. Its a pity the greed got the better of you. It happens to us all betting I think:$ I do think you are right that we can make money laying. This idea is based only on maths and the fact that the maths will always win. I got the idea from the valueplace idea. I know it needs more work but if the basic idea proves to be sound then we can look at refining it to make more profit for less work. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 26, 2006 Author Share Posted January 26, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 53% of the favourites won today so Friday will be a laying day. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites I'm also going to keep track of laying all the favourites on days following a favourite success rate of less than 20%. Since I started records in November there have been 8 days when it went below 20%. The following day gave profit/loss like this. -6.7 14.92 9.02 4.52 15.64 2.57 5.12 1.03 A profit of 46.12 points at sp prices. Lets see how it all pans out over the year. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 41% of the favourites won today. So tomorrow is another laying day. Including 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss -0.52 Running Total -1.13 (3 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss 0.43 Running Total 0.31 (3 days laying) Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 28, 2006 Author Share Posted January 28, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 38% of favourites won today. No laying tomorrow. A minor profit at sp. Rooster Including 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss -1.20 Running Total -2.33 (4 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss 1.1 Running Total 1.41 (4 days laying) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Sunday 29th January 35% of favourites won today. No laying tomorrow. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Monday 31st January 19% of favourites won today so tomorrow is a laying day. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites I'd be backing them if I were you Rooster!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted February 1, 2006 Author Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 58% of favourites won today :wall Tomorrow is a laying day. Rooster Including 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss -7.13 Running Total -9.46 (5 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss -6.17 Running Total 4.76 (5 days laying) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted February 1, 2006 Author Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 15% of favourites won today. Laying again tomorrow. Rooster Including 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss 8.63 Running Total -0.83 (6 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss 9.35 Running Total 14.11 (6 days laying) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 33% of favourites won today. No laying tomorrow. Rooster Including 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss 0.91 Running Total 0.08 (7 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss 3.37 Running Total 17.48 (7 days laying) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted February 4, 2006 Author Share Posted February 4, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites 23% of favourites won on Friday so a laying day tomorrow. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted February 4, 2006 Author Share Posted February 4, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Saturday 4th February 25% of favourites won today. Very nice profit. :D Laying again on Sunday. Rooster Including 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss 10.61 Running Total 10.69 (8 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss 12.91 Running Total 30.39 (8 days laying) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted February 6, 2006 Author Share Posted February 6, 2006 Re: Laying Favourites Sunday 5 February 27% of favourites won today. I think we've all got the idea of this thread so Im going to leave it at this. Im going to look at something more specific and not just laying across every favourite on each day and start a new thread soon. Rooster ncluding 5% commission & 10% on sp Profit/Loss 2.91 Running Total 13.60 (9 days laying) Excluding 5% commission % 10% on sp Profit/Loss 5.14 Running Total 35.53 (9 days laying) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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