Laying Favourites

[rooster]

This idea is a bit crude but I think it has potential. Favouites win 33% of all flat races and 38% of jumps. Thats according to another site. I dont know if I can say the name but it doesnt matter really. I kept note of the number of favourites that won in December and till now in January. I figure that when the favourites win more than 40% of the races then the next day will maybe be a good day to lay them because the maths has to balance out again. This happened 11 times in December and 4 times so far this month. If you layed all the favourites on the next days this is what happened. 11.77 4.06 -4.6 20.88 -1.52 5.32 -2.48 2.16 -8.46 9.97 8.22 -13.59 2.97 7.37 12.54 That is a profit of 54.6 points for the 15 days. I know you have to commission to the betting exchange and offer a higher price than starting price. If you paid 5% commission on winnings and say offered 10% above the bookie odds then the profit would be 46.42 I think. Maybe this idea can be made better but I will keep a record and maybe some other people have good ideas or suggestions. Rooster

[rooster]

Re: Laying Favourites I think Im right that over 40% of the favourites won today so tommorrow is a day to lay the favourites. There are only Irish meetings on Sunday but I do include them in my record keeping so we'll see what happens. I need to tell you as well that I dont count joint favourites or more. Only clear favourites. Rooster