lochie Posted October 3, 2006 Share Posted October 3, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Metz 1st Round: SAULNIER v Hrbaty @ 4.05 Pinnacle.....WON ASCIONE v Fish @ 3.25 Bluesq.............LOST CLEMENS v Patience @ 1.73 Pinnacle.......UP 4-3 1st set (STAKHOVSKY v Gasquet @ 9.0 Pinnacle)... Missed the start of the first one. Im off to bed .............good punting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Tokyo 2nd Round: No selections fit the system with LU too big against Robredo at 5.8 and TROICKI ever so slightly too big v Federer at 76 (matched at 110 on betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers the 2 victorious 1st round qualifiers from Metz meet in the 2nd round so no more selections for this week. quick round up: ATP Tokyo 1st Round: TROICKI v Vicente @ 2.07 Pinnacle WON CHAEN v Waske @ 4.45 Pinnacle LOST CILIC v Udomchoke @ 2.35 Pinnacle LOST ARTHURS v Burgsmuller @ 1.67 Ladbrokes LOST LU v Delgado @ 2.31 Pinnacle WON CHEN v Iwabuchi @ 2.38 SportingOdds LOST Metz 1st Round: SAULNIER v Hrbaty @ 4.05 Pinnacle WON ASCIONE v Fish @ 3.25 Bluesq LOST CLEMENS v Patience @ 1.73 Pinnacle WON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers ATP Vienna 1st Round: CILIC v Wawrinka @ 3.32 Pinnacle BOLELLI v Hrbaty @ 3.75 Pinnacle Tuesday(no prices yet): KUBOT v Grosjean FALLA v Gasquet Qualifying in Stockholm and Moscow not yet completed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiem Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Just a quick question. I have been watching this thread for some while now and think that if a selective staking plan had been used in relation to the odds on offer, winnings would have been increased quite considerably. I'm no expert at doing spread sheets and working out results / profit etc over a period of time but was wondering if any of you that are expert on this type of thing could calculate some figures for this year to date on all selections in both 1st and 2nd rounds, separately and combined using the following staking system Odds available / Stake less than evens (2.0) 7 pts evens to 2/1 (2.0 to 3.0) 5pts 2/1 to 3/1 (3.0 to 4.0) 3pts 3/1 to 5/1 (4.0 to 6.0) 2pts over 5/1 (6.0) 1 pt............with no high price limit Hope this is possible. Also would it be more profitable tweaking the stakes somewhat but keeping to the same odds brackets. I look forward to your response. By the way any news on Mr I.:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers I don't have up to date figures as i have been working away and missed many selections in the last few months but I analysed Mr I's results between 15 Jan 2006 and 17 May 2006. If you read back through the thread you'll see that Mr I uses 2pt fixed profit/variable stakes and only bets if the prices are below 5.00. I also looked at what happened when there was no cut off at 5.00. In other words providing it was a qualifier you backed it whatever the price. I also looked at what happened to the figures using 1pt level stakes. 1PT LEVEL STAKE 1ST ROUND (Ex big prices over 5) Bets/outlay: 104 p/l: 31.66 yield 30.44% 1ST ROUND (Inc big prices) Bets/outlay:118 p/l: 44.66 yield 37.84% 2ND ROUND (Ex big prices) Bets/outlay:46 p/l: 4.46 yield: 9.7 2ND ROUND (Inc big prices) Bets/outlay: 55 p/l: 18.42 yield 33.49% COMBINED 1ST AND 2ND (Inc big prices) Bets/outlay: 173 p/l: 63.08 yield 36.46% 2 PT LEVEL PROFIT These are the equivalent yields for the stakes Mr I uses. 1ST ROUND (Ex big prices): 21.29%, 1ST ROUND (Inc big prices): 24.99% 2ND ROUND (Ex big prices): 8.95% 2ND ROUND (Inc big prices): 17.09% COMBINED 1ST AND 2ND (Inc big prices): 22.87% This only goes for the first 5 months of course but up to then including the big prices and keeping to level stakes came out on top. I don't know the detailed effect of your variable staking suggestions, eddiem, but my hunch is that it would come out pretty similar to Mr I's fixed profit method. Nearly always the qualifiers are priced as the underdogs. What Mr I has so cleverly observed is that they are unfavourably priced up given that they have the advantage of having played a couple of matches usually on the courts before the regular guys get there. That's the edge Mr I has discovered. Maybe someone else has some more recent figures. No I do not know what has happened to Mr I. I emailed his personal address a while back and got no reply. I also asked the moderators of this site if they knew anything but I got no response from them. Does anyone have any news? It would be very good to know. Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers ATP Vienna 1st Round: KUBOT v Grosjean @ 4.89 Pinnacle (FALLA v Gasquet @ 7.0 Skybet) ATP Stockholm 1st Round: MARRAY v Gicquel @ 3.5 Bet Fred DEVILDER v Vinciguerra @ 2.63 Bet Fred WESSELS v Bjorkman @ 2.38 Bet Fred ATP Moscow 1st Round: ZVEREV v Clement @ 2.75 Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers A-Team thank you for updating. Best wishes Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Yes agreed, pinho, thank you A-Team and all who are helping to keep this thread going for when Mr I returns. chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers agreed, thanks to Chris001 and A-Team for thier contributions - it's a real education this thread, and it's the only one I need an atlas index and time zone map for . . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers no problem. awful week so far with just kubot winning. hopefully tomorrow will be better: ATP Moscow 1st Round: ISTOMIN v Korolev @ 4.1 Pinnacle *KRAVCHUK v Lee @ 4.5 Coral (STAKHOVSKY v Tursunov @ 10.0 Pinnacle) ATP Stockholm 1st Round: LLODRA v Nieminen @ 3.05 Pinnacle * - looks quite dodgy. most bookies have removed it. lee drifting on betfair although there hasn't been much traded yet. should probably move quickly if you fancy backing the qualifier here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers LLODRA is available at 3.2 on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Kravchuk won after being backed into favourite before the match. Looked dodgy as hell. Hope some of you got on early. Amazingly, Stakhovsky also came through at 10.0. Great day for fixed stakes taking all prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Followed the Stakhovsky game "live" on the Betfair forums and a lot of p***ed off punters were smelling a rat. Think some of them had their fingers burned on Lee-Kravchuk earlier in the day. The in-play prices on the Stakhovsky game were mad though - price on Tursonov never went over 1.9 until Match Point. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers The in-play prices on the Stakhovsky game were mad though - price on Tursonov never went over 1.9 until Match Point. :loon I have writen before on another thread that the best in-play opportunities are found in tennis, especially in women's tennis. I do believe there are really a lot of 1.05 or lower odds losers in tennis in-play, and as you said 1.9 until a match point is nuts. Great thread as always, I am only sorry that it died out a little, so I didn't back these this time. I would certainly be on the 10.0 bet, I have won some nice games in the past at these "long" odds. Good Luck everyone Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers 1st round summary: ATP Vienna 1st Round: KUBOT v Grosjean @ 4.89 Pinnacle WON CILIC v Wawrinka @ 3.32 Pinnacle LOST BOLELLI v Hrbaty @ 3.75 Pinnacle LOST (FALLA v Gasquet @ 7.0 Skybet) LOST ATP Stockholm 1st Round: MARRAY v Gicquel @ 3.5 Betfred LOST DEVILDER v Vinciguerra @ 2.63 Betfred LOST WESSELS v Bjorkman @ 2.38 Betfred LOST LLODRA v Nieminen @ 3.05 Pinnacle LOST ATP Moscow 1st Round: ZVEREV v Clement @ 2.75 Skybet LOST ISTOMIN v Korolev @ 4.1 Pinnacle LOST KRAVCHUK v Lee @ 4.5 Coral WON (STAKHOVSKY v Tursunov @ 10.0 Pinnacle) WON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers ATP Moscow 2nd Round: STAKHOVSKY v Clement @ 2.75 bet365 KRAVCHUK v Santoro @ 4.56 Pinnacle ATP Vienna 2nd Round: KUBOT v Melzer @ 4.5 bet365 I'm putting these up now because I'm not sure if I'll be around tomorrow. Only bet365 have prices up for 2 of them. There should be much better available in the morning. The price on Stakhovsky looks particularly crap. Someone else can update tomorrow if the prices are much better.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers ATP Moscow 2nd Round: STAKHOVSKY v Clement @ 2.75 bet365 KRAVCHUK v Santoro @ 4.56 Pinnacle ATP Vienna 2nd Round: KUBOT v Melzer @ 4.5 bet365 I'm putting these up now because I'm not sure if I'll be around tomorrow. Only bet365 have prices up for 2 of them. There should be much better available in the morning. The price on Stakhovsky looks particularly crap. Someone else can update tomorrow if the prices are much better.... STAKHOVSKY v Clement @ 3.25 BetFair[url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/autolink.php?id=34&script=showthread&forumid=21] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers NEW price at 11.00 BST ATP Moscow 2nd Round: STAKHOVSKY v Clement @ 3.28 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers This week was pretty good...next week : :: ATP: Masters Madrid :: WTA: Switzerland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers ATP Madrid Qualifiers: Fraile Fish Del Potro Navarro-Pastor Falla Benneteau 1st Round (Monday): FRAILE v Srichaphan FISH v Malisse NAVARRO-PASTOR v Murray No prices yet. Falla and Benneteau meet so no play there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Still no prices even though they're the first matches on court tomorrow. I won't be around in morning so if someone else could post the prices that'd be great. They start about 10am..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers FRAILE v Srichaphan 4.6 BetFair FISH v Malisse 2.2 BetFair NAVARRO-PASTOR v Murray 8 BetFair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 16, 2006 Share Posted October 16, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Thanks Pitmaster. FRAILE v Srichaphan 4.6 BetFair LOST FISH v Malisse 2.2 BetFair WON NAVARRO-PASTOR v Murray 8 BetFair LOST 1 for tomorrow: ATP Madrid 1st Round: DEL POTRO v Johansson @ 2.78 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted October 17, 2006 Share Posted October 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Not sure if it would count or not, but there's also BENNETEAU v Nalbandian scheduled for today - 2nd rnd match after Benneteau saw off his fellow qualifier Falla in the 1st rnd. Current price is 4.3 BetFair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
western skies Posted October 18, 2006 Share Posted October 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers ATP Madrid 2nd Rnd: FISH v Nadal 8 BetFair Wouldn't qualify for MR I's system due to the odds, but I know some of yous were considering backing all Qualifiers in both rnds. Not sure how wise it is against Nadal though! Unlucky for anyone who was on Benneteau yesterday - 5-2 up in the 3rd and lost 5 straight games to throw away a nice meaty profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fromhell Posted October 18, 2006 Share Posted October 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Are you playing for wta too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted October 20, 2006 Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Hi guys i have an idea about tennis system and i have a question for us ...do you know where i can find tennis historical odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Next week: :: ATP: Basel :: ATP: Lyon :: ATP: St. Petersburg :: WTA: Linz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr shrewdie Posted October 23, 2006 Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Hi guys i have an idea about tennis system and i have a question for us ...do you know where i can find tennis historical odds ? Pitmaster These have all past odds http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/ but I think they charge a fee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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