Refinement

[collette38dd]

Refinement 1.30 Sandown. Has been put in at [123] for her handicap debut against a couple of seasoned handicappers today. The RP commentary on her last win when beating Pirate Flagship (a distance clear of the 3rd home). "A numerically weak turnout for a novice hurdle at this venue was explained by the presence of REFINEMENT, the runaway winner of the Grade 1 bumper at last season's Punchestown Festival but a not altogether convincing winner of her two starts over hurdles prior to this contest. Particularly on the first of those two occasions her jumping was ordinary, and while that problem has been addressed, this was still no more than a workmanlike performance. She made all and was always just about in command, butshe did seem at least a little vulnerable when Pirate Flagship ranged alongside over the final two flights. That said, she pulled clear on the run-in, and Tony McCoy was far from at full shove, but the mare has still not blossomed into the hurdle performer that her bumper form suggested was likely. A watching brief continues to be necessary."" (RP) OK so Pirate won 2 of his next 3 runs. The above race was 7 seconds slower than average, the class event that came later was the totesport.com Elite Hurdle (Class A) (A Limited Handicap) the winner was rated [150] carrying 2lb less than Refinement earlier - the time was 3 seconds faster and the gallop decribed as generous. You don't need to get your slide rule out to notice that [123] is a fair rating if the latter race was a good gallop. Refinement's spring form last year was impressive, this mare ran in all 3 of the top 2005 bumper events - springboard for many stables' most promising newcomers: 4th in the Weatherbys at Cheltenham; 4th in the John Smith's at Aintree; and then beat The Cool Guy by 9L in the Paddy Power at Punchestown and has not been beaten since.. So what do you think? fair rating? will the experienced mares outjump her? collette

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Refinement For some reason, Sardagna keeps jumping out at me for that race. If there's any suspicion that the experienced mares will outjump her then I would swerve. Especially at odds on (as suggested in some betting forecasts.) But then again, I HATE odds-on! If you're happy backing odds-on and you think it will win, then back it. Any odds are value if it's a winner.