Newton-Heath Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Well, I've been thinking for a while about how to pick a good object to bet on. Some times it's easy to just pick the object from the list without even doing a full analyse of it. And sometimes it's more difficult than ever picking a object to fit your hard earned money. So, my idea for doing the pick easier is as followed: Pick the objects by the odds offered. It all depends of what odds you like. Personally I like the odds between 1.60 and 1.85. However, I don't bet on every object with with the odds I desire. I compare the objects to see wich one of them fit the offered odds most. So, if I have 3 objects with the odds 1.60, 1.70 and 1.85 I might only bet on the object with the lowest odds if I the other object don't seem to fit the odds offered. I my oppinion, by picking the object by the odds before you analyse is a good thing. First of all, you increase the list of objects offered. That's good because with all those objects out on the market it's a difficult road to walk when trying to pick the right object. Second, as you know the odds offered it might not waste your time doing a detailed and timeconsuming analyse of the object. I think that most of us get a certain feeling about an object when we look at the odds offered. We actually decide in an instant if the object is worth analysing or not. And by increasing the list of objects to fit the odds we want we can save us self some time and effort. Instead of a list from 1.01 to 14.00 we now have a shorter list btween 1.60 and 1.85. Hope you people catch my way of thinking. Newton Heath :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. :welcome Newton Heath, I would suggest that you will be more successful if you can devise an accurate way of determining the 'value' of the odds offered, whether between 1.60 and 1.85 or 165.0 and 185.0. The actual numerical value of the odds should be irrelevant as far as being the sole 'determinant' of whether to bet or not. Value is the 'key' to profit. Feel free to disagree..... :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. I agree to your words about value. But the fact that evrey punter has their own way of analysing an object makes it difficult to get an accurat result of value. But then again my writing was only about a way to pick your objects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. Have to agree with Spreadman here, although I think I know what you're getting at. I once tried breaking the fixtures into small groups of games based on narrow odds ranges (my favourite I think was around evens), to try to make things clearer and make a mental comparison of games easier. It can't take the place of your usual method of analysis though, whatever that might be. To take it a step further I analysed each block of fixtures separately to see if there were different forces at work across odds ranges (e.g. are goals for and against a more important factor at short odds compared to long odds etc. etc.). It sort of worked, but not to any degree worth pursuing. I still like the idea though and might return to it when the current methods go pear-shaped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. Too many "objects" - I've read this word so many times now, it doesn't seem right anymore! :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. :ok Sgt.S, I have tried similar analysis, but two of the problems I encountered were insufficient data, i.e small groups of results to work with, that couldn't be judged to be 'statistically fit', and the fact that I was trying to look for trends after the event, to match a theory, what I see as 'cherry picking', or 'statistical suiting'. However, sometimes I have stumbled upon unexpected results and developed systems that were profitable in the short term. I still seek the Holy Grail of systems, though.........:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. Danny, do I detect that you object to 'object'? Would that be an objective objection? Or can the objective adjective be subjective???? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. Well, I will give it a try at this forum. This is how I will analyse my picks: a) Using home/away stats b) Using current formstats c) Using goals for and goals against to determine the strength for each team Using too much informations and stats when analysing will only screw things up. Keeping things simple and clean makes things easier. Newton Heath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. :clap ....................and not an 'object' to be seen anywhere...................:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted December 17, 2005 Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. Good luck N-H :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted December 17, 2005 Author Share Posted December 17, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. Well, this is my first pick in this project: Braunschweig - Saarbrücken (German Bundesliga 2) => Homewin, odds: 1,78. To be played: Sunday 18/12-05 at 3 pm (CET). The stats tell me that this one should be a clear homewin. Braunschweig at home: 5-2-1 11:3 Saarbrücken away: 2-1-5 6:19 I think that the stats in this game is good enough for backing the homewin. Bankroll(start): 200 units In game: 20 units Good luck! Newton Heath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted December 18, 2005 Author Share Posted December 18, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. My second pick in this project: Boavista - Guimarães (Portugal) => Homewin, Odds: 1.76 To be played: Today (Sunday 18/12-05). Although the hometeam haven't been reliable I do think that they can win this one. The awayteam seems to have to fight against relegation this season. The stats show that Boavista scores many goals at home. Bankroll(start): 200 units In play: 40 units Newton Heath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moo-e Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 Re: Picking the object by odds.. :welcome I have similar methods in some betting I do. I like odds 2.00 or higher, not much. I like to think then that if I can quess 1/2 correct, I´m making profit. To me its also time question ´cause not having it too much :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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