jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Backing the favorit horsesystem Is there anyone that had heard of this I have it and if you whant i can reveal it here my questions is that it sound like a good system but it has a type of matingale staking plan?? Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Martingale can cause serious discomfort and pain. Do not use. Just my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Yes i share your thouts but on this system i maybee think different because favorits win about 30% and if you a careful maybe we dont have a long losing streak. Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Agree with georgej. Bets on favourites, if you don't have a way of picking out the good ones, will lose money on average. If you make bets with negative expectation, then a year from now you will on average be behind, whatever clever staking plan you use. That's a mathematical theorem. All that systems like Martingale can do is make you very likely to be slightly ahead, at the expense of a small possibility of being a long way behind, but still behind on average. If you start with a bank of 100 points and make negative expectation bets, then whatever your staking plan is there is more than a 50% chance that you will lose your entire bank before you make a profit of 100 points (another mathematical theorem). On the other hand, if this system does pick out profitable favourites to back (which I doubt) then you'll be better off backing them at level stakes and ignoring the Martingale staking plan. Sadly, to make money on average from betting, there's no short cut. You have to identify profitable betting opportunities. There's no way of turning sow's ear bets into a silk purse with a fancy staking plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem John there's nearly a 3% chance that you could hit 10 losers in a row if you've only got a 30% chance of winning. Could your staking plan survive such a losing streak ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem John there's nearly a 3% chance that you could hit 10 losers in a row if you've only got a 30% chance of winning. Could your staking plan survive such a losing streak ? And that's only the chance that you'll start with 10 losers in a row. The losing streak could come later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem maybe i have been wron maybe it is not a martingale here is a link to the free book if someone is intrested ? http://www.xxxxxxxxx.com/ Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem removed the link, the ebook may be free but you need to join a subscription email, the site and email contains advertising, therefore permission to post the link must be given by PL's owner Paul Ross. I know you are not spamming but we must have some consistency in what links are posted and which ones not. People interested can send you a PM to get the link/site. Its probably nothing more than a trick to get you on the email list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem ok, but ill get the free book and it describeds the system i am asking about. And they get my email bet i use hotmail so if the bore me i just get a new one. But it has not happend yet. it ok to pm me if annybody is intrested in the link. Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem ok, i had a quick look, which is all the amount of time i'm willing to spend on this kind of stuff, the system is a simple selection method on favourites, backing using progressive staking, AND stop at a winner. noticed a few things: a) there is no historical data available, b) there is no statistical proof provided, c) there is no name on the site, no person or company ( i do not consider [email protected] to be a name ) d) there is quite a bit of advertising ( in fact the very first email already has ANOTHER ebook link ) e) the LINKS page contains nothing but commercial links are you getting the picture here ? Let me spell it out for you, The owner of this site has affiliate accounts with the advertised bookies, if you sign up through his site you become his player, he gets a % on your losses. let me repeat that, he gets a % on your losses. In short, before anything else, do your homework, your own homework. Now there is nothing wrong with affiliate accounts, I have a site, I have affiliate accounts, sign up through my links and i make some money from your losses. Hopefully. My point is that losing is part of the betting game, so instead of giving it all back to the bookie, give some to me. This is clearly mentioned on my site. But on my site you find my full, real name, direct email, even my address. That in itself says it all. btw. i've got a small site with only a few sign-ups, and they are actually winning. :cry :lol :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem it ok to pm me if annybody is intrested in the link. yes, if they want a link anywhere on PL they need to contact Paul and get permission, if you want to share the info amongs those individuals that ask for it go right ahead :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem I am most intrested in the system and the staking described in the book. a have hear elswhere that 30% of the favourites wins so ill be intrested in the system and the stakingplan that seemed to adjust the fact that only 30% of the favourites wins. Is the stakingplan a martingale or have i missunderstand it? Best Regards john Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem btw. i've got a small site with only a few sign-ups, and they are actually winning. :cry I'd expect nothing less from the calibre of punter likely to visit your site, DP. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem btw. i've got a small site with only a few sign-ups, and they are actually winning. :cry I can change that if you want DP:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem John - Paper test this system for a few months before you commit any money to it. Just set up a spreadsheet and keep a log of the horse, odds, stake an win/lose. You should then be able to see whether it is woth persuing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Yes it is a good ideer to paper trade it. But i am still i little bet scared that i run in to a losing streak that will make me bankruppt. Have at look at it if you got the time pm you the link. Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Ah thank you Mr I, i appreciate the thought ;) jgadefelth, no need for a long test, simply go to The Racing Post and use the results database they have. Pick a day to start and see how it goes. But i am still i little bet scared that i run in to a losing streak that will make me bankruppt fear makes you lose your objectivity, a losing streak is always possible, with any system, so... 1) are you betting with money you can afford to lose ? You know the answer, the real answer, no need to reply. 2) if you have bancruptcy as a real possibility, should you even start ? I wouldn't, do the homework it takes to estimate the probability of actually going bancrupt. Then ask yourself if you are willing to take the risk. Considering you are already scared you probably aren't. Yes, the staking is a variation to Martingale, every next bet tries to recover all the losses from the previous bet. Sites and systems like these are 13 in a dozen. There is nothing new here, all been done before, as long as there has been horse racing. I'll leave you with a quote from the ebook; notice the bold words :lol The selection methodology should identify strongly fancied runners with the theory being that because they are "strongly fancied" they should win more often than not and by covering three each day, one should win meaning the profit target is met. and the page end with: Don't forget to check out the Free bets and Free casino chips pages. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem You have the chanse to face bancrupsy with every system martingale or not direct or over some time the trick is to find the system that lives throu time. And i shall do as you say and go to the racing post to check past results. :ok Ps. is there anyone that also can answear my post in my other thread i think it is called lay or somthing. Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem theory being that because they are "strongly fancied" they should win more often than not Is 30% "more often than not"?:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgadefelth Posted December 21, 2005 Author Share Posted December 21, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Ok have thinking little more about it what about using this system and add the 2 and the 3 favorites and dutching that shall be a winning system about 65 % or so of the time. :loon Best Regards John Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem But then the cost will also go up and the profit down. Be sure to paper test the system for a while before committing funds to it. George Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem My honest advice is don't go down this road. If you dutch the first three in the betting, you'll probably be on the equivalent of a 1-3 short or much worse. You'll still get runs of 5,6 or 7 where none of the top 3 win, and chasing at odds of 1-3 or worse means you'll need a huge bank. The best system I ever had for backing specific favourites in certain types of race was around a 45% strike rate but this still produced a losing run of 13 :lol Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem Hi John; I`ve heard of 2 systems based on backing favourites and both of them based on a form of retrieval in which you stake to win a fixed amount per day. If hit a losing day you then try and claw back losses over a week. You may be interested. 1.Non handicap System. This is chosen because non handicaps yield in percentage terms the highest number of winning favourites. You use the first 3 non handicaps of the day for this system only. It gets complicated due to joint favourites,co favourites as you are backing the unknown fav. 2.The other system was you waited till a favourite won and backed the unknown favourite in the next race and repeated another twice during the day. Both systems of coure are SAW(Stop at Winner) Personally I`m not a great advocate of systems but thought this may be of interest. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 30, 2005 Share Posted December 30, 2005 Re: Backing favorit horse sytem I have a number of systems that use the favourite and are profitable. But they are backed up with variious form/rating/days since last run etc to decide selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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