O/U safer system

[skin8]

I noticed alot of people are trying to make a profitable O/U strategy and I'm trying in myself recently. The question is how to make the predictions and estimations. I use the last 4-5 average scoring stats for the home and away team + average total scoring for both teams in recent matches + H2H from the last years + last 4-5 O/U in the matches those teams were involved. And ofcourse teams news...if some players are missing in both teams defense it could indicate an Over or vice verse according to missing players in offence could indicate an Under. Are there other factors or stats that people here are using ? btw...I noticed that Overs are a bit more safer , sometimes sh*t happens in "sure under" (according to stats). Opinons , sharing , tips , experience , everything is welcomed. Lets try to make all of us which is interested in O/U a safer system. Best of picks, Ehud :hope

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[cains]

Re: O/U safer system :welcome to punterslounge.... :clap At the moment i cant really think of other things needed to make a good U/O calculation..

[skin8]

Re: O/U safer system Dear Cains, Cheers for the welcome party :gimme but there must be more !

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: O/U safer system Hi Ehud It's a difficult market to get right, but there are a few on here having a good go. For what it's worth, the best value can be found where team A has scored lots and conceded few recently v team B that has scored very few but let loads in and bet UNDER! This works best in popular leagues where the bookies expect most action and bias the odds towards over, e.g. Premiership. Sounds crazy but it's true.

[skin8]

Re: O/U safer system Srg, It sure sounds crazy and not statistical right...but I'll have a look at it anyway. I'm running numbers and stats only for a week but noticed that when home team's average goals for last 4-5 games is 1 or less...then Under is almost sure.

[tagalog]

Re: O/U safer system Hi There Take a look at my thread Data for a possible system. I kept data for a couple of hundred unders where the price was above 2. The % unders was about the same as you would expect 52%. I think in the long term you must make a small profit with this system. It seems to me that whatever the under/over it is indeed difficult to predict these. Hence, following the 'average' statistics should show a profit. I am working on another under/over idea at the moment and will post when I have tested it more.

[skin8]

Re: O/U safer system well with the system i mentioned above (and its not "perfect" for my taste yet) i managed to get 65% accurate O/U in a week period. but again...i'm not satisfied and think there is much to improve.

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: O/U safer system I can't remember exactly what it was, but it can be summed up as "If your goal stats point strongly towards over then bet under". Most people will bet over so the bookies adjust their odds accordingly creating value the other way. I went the usual route of doing a logistic regression of "the difference between teams" against "0 for under or 1 for over" to turn the raw numbers into an o/u probability. Multiply this by the best odds you can find and if it pointed to NO VALUE (i.e.

[skin8]

Re: O/U safer system I'm kinda afraid of reverse logic theories , but valuewise you got a point there... My interest is to find everyday and most probable picks for O/U and to place them in some sort of combo. maybe a O/U pick with a double chance on a double (to increase profit). or 2 O/U picks in a combo...which brings together an over 3 odds.