NFL Wk. 13

[TazaD]

Atlanta @ Carolina under 43 League: 4-16 under (Av. total 39.4...av. score 31.4) any away dog, off a 14+ ats win as any away fav. [Atl] (0-7 under (Av.total 40.4...av. score 28.4!!) if opp is off any ats win) (1-7 under (Av. total 44.2...av. score 35.4) if total is 40+) 1-9 under (Av. total 37.9...av. score 24.3!!!!) if opp was last away!! *** League: 1-8 under (Av. total 41.2...av. score 34.0) home 3- fav off a 3- ats win as an away 7- fav. [Caro] *** Also 1-9 SU in this spot...in the 10 games, the 10 away teams have averaged 6.6 ppg!!!! Atlanta rely heavily on their running game to move the ball, but Carolina have the number 1 run D in the league, allowing just 3.3 ypc. Only 1 of Atlanta's 5 road games has gone over this number, at NO, who are terrible defensively. Carolina also run it more times than they throw, and I suspect they will be happy to run at the Falcons who are allowing 4.6 ypc. Tennesee @ Indi over 50 Well, Indi can score!!...since wk. 4 they have averaged 35.5 ppg...and they do score when they need to.... ...When their opposition has scored just 10 or more (6 times) they've av. over 38 ppg! Realistically, Indi have played just 3 teams that are decent offensively...45-37 v. Cinci; 40-21 v. NE; & 45-28 v. SL. Tennesee now have their offense back and just about fully healthy and they have scored 28 and 33 in their last 2 games. Their defense is still crap tho!...they've allowed 30+ in 7 of 11 games!! This should be a huge shoot-out indoors in perfect conditions.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Wk. 13 Pittsburgh -3 (1.89) League: 21-9 (Av win 9.5) home 7- dog, off a 10+ ats loss as away 7+ dog, if opp was last at home. [Pits] 9-1 (Av. win 6.9) if opp was last a 3+ fav. I really like getting the 3 here. Pittsburgh were beaten badly on national tv, Monday Night, while Cinci have racked up 79 points in their last 2 games...looks easy right?? Na. Cinci run D is allowing 4.5 ypc, so Pits should have no trouble repeating their performance from Wk. 6 @ Cinci, when they ran for 226 yards @ 5.2, had the ball for more than 10 minutes longer...and won the game 27-13. Rothlesberger back (and with a game under his belt) is a BIG plus for this team, as they average over 2 ypp more with him @ QB than anyone else, which further opens up their running game. I really think Pittsburgh will control this game and win it reasonably comfortably. Jets @ NE under 42 I don't really understand this number at all. I've said before that the difference between home and road games for rookie QB's is MASSIVE!!...So just after a game where the Jets score 19 against a terrible defense at home v. NO, now suddenly they can score at will?!! They average just 7.3 ppg on the road!!...their road games av. 32.5 points, and they av. 33.7 points in all games on grass. NE's defensive problems have been against the pass, but that won't be a problem this week...their run D is actually quite good,allowing just 3.8 ypr. Somewhat surprisingly, NE have only topped 24 once since week 1, and that was indoors @ Atlanta. Their home games av. just 40.7 points...and I don't expect this one to get anywhere near that!! Strong play.