data for a possible system

[tagalog]

I have not posted before so, if you find it boring let me know and I will refrain! <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Had an idea for a system involving the under/over which has shown moderate profits, but nothing outstanding. I am posting the data however, to see if it might prove useful to someone in the forum or perhaps lead to some suggestions. My hypothesis was that it is difficult to predict over/under 2.5 goals in some matches, but if one could keep it over two at 50% then a profit should ensure. I must admit I only have limited (paper traded) data as I became disillusioned with the up and down profits. I started on the 15/9/05 to keep track of backing the under if the odds were 2 or above, up to a maximum of 2.18. (there are a few 1.99’s). The total number of bets would have been 203 at £10 per game. I recorded the following: Home wins 56.65% Total draws 25.12% Draws at 0—0, 1—1 18.22% Below 2.5. 52.22% Over 47.78% There were 106 wins returning £1140 (not including stake). There were 960 losses. The profit was £180. Commission would have been £57 at 5% leaving £123. The initial 100 bets produced good profit, but the remaining 103 was poor. Looking at bets over 2.1 with a max of 2.18 there would have been 89. Losers 41, winners 48 with a net profit of £107.5 after commission. It would look like the 2^nd option would be best for anyone trying this. All figures come from Betfair. The under figures being ‘taken’ about 2 hours from the match (where possible) and when at least a few hundred pounds was available. Only games which also showed the correct score (not necessarily live) were used for these figures. All games had home team advantage. I have also, used the under/over idea to look at the unquoted lay bets from correct score. I don’t have many of these, just 30 from the 15/10/05 to 23/10/05. It might be worth looking at this as an add-on to other system ideas. Basically, looked at the under up to and including 2.3 and the looked at the lay price for the ‘unquoted’ in the correct scores. My reasoning behind this (rightly or wrongly) is that sometimes you see a home team say, at 1.3 and the away team at 9. Normally, the under 2.5 price is 2.5 or more, but sometimes it is under 2.3. To me, this says, someone’s not sure of what’s going to happen and are not prepared to offer too higher odds. As scores above 4 goals occur about 10% of the time for ‘normal’ games I reasoned that if the lay was kept to below 6 (5 actual) then 90 games is £900 profit at £10 stake and 10 games lose £500. Hence, a profit (minus commission) of £375! That was the theory. Of the 30 games meeting the criteria 2 were outside the unquoted range. This gave 28 winners for £280 and two losers, £39 and £41.leaving a profit of £200 from which commission would have to be paid. Hope I haven’t bored you all to sleep with this. Seriously, hope some ideas might emerge from this.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: data for a possible system :welcome to PL tagalog. Great first post, sure someone will find it useful. Are you going to proof any of the ideas on here?

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system Hi Mr Intensity Had a look through this morning at under prices for todays games, but all seem over the 2.3 limit. Arsenal was an example yesterday (about 2/2 on the under over) but the lay price for unquoted was aound 7 (actual) I might keep an eye on prices where you could lay under 5 (6) and also any that met the criteria, but that were above 5 (but under 10) Might prove interesting. best tagalog

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system Just looking through today’s games where the unquoted lay is 5 or below (actual risk) The following teams qualify. Actually, Juventus comes within the main criteria at 2.3. This may rise as the day goes on and hence the need to view this a couple of hours before the game. Juventus Treviso 2.3 under lay risk 3 (4) PSV Ado Den Haag under 2.92 lay risk 2.4 (3.4) Barcelona Santander under 2.5 lay risk 3 (4) Feyenoord Heracles under 2.82 lay risk 2.85 (3.85) Heerenveen Roosendaal under 2.76 lay risk 3 (4)

I do not have much data on unders above 2.3 so it might prove interesting to see what happens. I would imagine you would lose money, but will track these for a few games just for the hell of it!

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system Think I will call these systems A and B to avoid confusion. There were no bets that qualified yesterday for the original (2.3 or below) as the Juventus price crept up. The bet any lay results below 5 (6) had 3 winners and two losers giving a loss of £28.50 to £10 stakes. Will keep trying with this just to see what happens over a period. It is system A which I think might work and will post any games here.

27/11/2005		result	actual lay	p/l
juventus	treviso	3--1	3	10
Psv	ado den haag	3--0	2.4	10
barcelona	santander	4--1	3	-30
feyenoord	heracles	7--1	2.85	-28.5
heerenveen	roosendaal	2--0	3	10
				-28.5

Thre is one game tonight which might qualify for the above. I will post later if it meets the criteria.

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system :) Just the one qualifier tonight. just falls outside system A. olympiacos v iraklis under at 2.32. Lay unq is 4.9 actual potential loss is £39 to £10.:) Under now more stable at 2.2. Becomes a system A bet.

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system A winner tonight, so losses now stand at -£18.50. (Decided to group all bets together to save confusion) Privately, I will keep a record of those 2.3 or under.

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system one bet tonight midweek uefa cup steaua B v halmstads now available to lay at 3 (£20 risk) to £10.

[tagalog]

Re: data for a possible system A winner last night. Seven games. Now at -£8.5 to £10 stake. Will look to see what there is today and tomorrow.