Internet Sites Fixed???

[GaF]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? I disagree - it IS normal for it to happen every game - not every hand, but every game. If there is a 20% chance of a "bad beat" at the showdown, and there are 50 showdowns in a game - then it is NORMAL for there to be 10 "bad beats" in each and every game.

[Valiant23]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? An observation for me is that Betfair seems to have the 'randomness' closer to what one expects, and pocket pairs seem to hold up better. Also, misery loves company. Anyone at any table on any site starts talking about their bad beats and everyone joins in. BUT, how many people are willing to talk about the time they tilted, played 92o and flopped the boat? Thing is danno, the bad beat thread is the whinging thread, if you start a thread like this surely it is open for discussion, and it is a worthy one. :ok Incidentally I have never had so many A's in tonights dollar up, there must be 20 in their packs. :rollin

[guesswest]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed???

I disagree - it IS normal for it to happen every game - not every hand, but every game. If there is a 20% chance of a "bad beat" at the showdown, and there are 50 showdowns in a game - then it is NORMAL for there to be 10 "bad beats" in each and every game.

Have to second this. I think the perception of bad beats comes primarily from two things. First one being the obvious, that they hurt and so you remember them. Second one being more mathematical - I think many, myself included when I don't stop myself, are apt to forget just how small the margins are in poker, which is what makes it a long term expectation game. There's only 52 cards in the deck. No hand is a particularly big favourite over another - even in the most extreme and rare example of somone drawing to one single card after the turn in a heads up game, its only 44-1, which is the kind of bet you'd expect to see hitting multiple times in one night at a table. And most of these bad beats are nowhere near that unlikely. In the example of the underpair flopping a set there, that being 5/1, means that if two pocket pairs were played against each other every hand, on a 10 seater table, you'd expect to see that happen twice just from one BB to the next. If you really feel it's happening more than it should, record it and analyse it, for sure it'd do massive damage to a poker business (as it should) if you came up with mathematical proof of this happening. I think people generally don't do this because the rational part of their mind knows all this, that it's random, but the emotional part of can't reconcile the losing streak, so tries to explain the streak in terms of biased deals.

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? but that would depend on what the bad beat is. eg if it is a 72 v aa preflop. and no help to either on flop...... then the showdown would be limited to 2 cards. therefore the percentage lessens with every card look gaf... i am not trying to tell anyone what to think. you maths is all well and good but in my opinion..... most bad beats should be avoided before a showdown..... the flops and hole cards should tell a player that they have a poor hand and shouldn't be winning. so if this monkey calls and get lucky...... a bad beat........however....... bad players SHOULD be skint within a short space of time so they should not be available to be in future showdowns...or should have learnt their lessons. I have become mostly very tight when playing... sticking to premium hands or something not far behind them. almost EVERY premium hand is battered. Maths does not explain it I am afraid.the way the hands are played it irrelevant because I watched so many premium hands get stuffed if slow played. all in raised ... it makes no difference. I made a complaint to sporting odds some time ago and proceeded to get yin and yang hands. if i had 10 or above then the flop was always 234 or 375 or the like. if i had low hands/pairs.... the flop missed EVERY single hand I played. If I had kk the next bloke had aa or aces appeared on the flop. I know this is ( or should be ) random and bad luck but when this is the case for 3 months.... you lose faith. sense tells you that it probably is fair but when you keep getting struck by lightening, you begin to think god is aiming for you. What I think wasn't properly understood by my post is that .....ok..... you think it is not fixed......... and I think there is a slight possibility that it is........... what really doesn't help is when you are upset and perhaps a little twitchy about repeated bad beats is when no one will just let you have a moan and blame whoever you want.!!!! I known you are explaining what you think is happening but can't you just have a smile at what people are saying instead of taking everythign so literally and having to "prove" how wrong people are? Sometimes they know what you are telling them.... they just want to vent their spleen! An " unlucky fellah" would probably do a lot more good than " Dr Maths says.............." Ooops!! sounds like I am having a rant at you gaf!!! not so........ all tongue in cheek kidda!

[GaF]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? No worries danno - I understand the spirit in which it's being made - I'll have a good read of your post after Dollar Up

[guesswest]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? Danno, is frustrating being on a losing streak, I'm on one myself the last couple weeks - but I have to disagree with you that maths does not explain what you're describing. It does There is huge statistical variance in poker calculations, that's what makes it a long term expectation game. Like I was saying in that post before, if you're playing a loose game/with bad players, you're supposed to be able to bankroll 20x the max buy-in on that table, that's the conventional wisdom not my opinion. That means, that if you're playing a 50c/$1 table, you need a bankroll of $2000. Which is to say, that a GOOD, WINNING, SUCCESSFUL player - can be mathematically expected to be $2000 down at one point playing 50c/$1. That's the kind of variance you have to deal with in Holdem. So the kind of streaks you describe, over that kind of time period, aren't close to remarkable. And if you play correct poker long enough, the patterns you're seeing will eventually even out so that good play reflects as profit.

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? good luck mate.............. i am out........... got bad beat

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? i suspect people are growing wise to tactics about keeping debate running and sarcasm....... i will have try a new ploy!!!!! why is sporting odds crashing all the time today??? lol

[Valiant23]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed???

Mr V I keep reading that you are having the disconnection problems where the tournament tells you in advance of a software collapse that applies solely to you. I think that it is childish to keep ranting on about it as the problem is clearly at your end as no other people are disconnected on the table. I had a similar problem with sporting odds and I pursued the same line of questioning as yourself. I couldn't get a satisfactory answer initially. Eventually the answer came and it made perfect sense. The answer I recieved was straight forward and common sense. You really should stop ranting and getting upset and think about it like an adult, as I did when I recieved the following anser. " The telephone lines that you are using to connect to sporting odds poker are too thin and it takes longer to fold the cards up and send them along these thin lines. The result of playing lots of hands quickly is that the telephone lines become blocked with the cards being sent to you and you sending them back upon folding. It is usually somewhere under the mid atlantic where these blockages occur usually as the telephone line may have developed a small leak and the cards have become slightly wet and mushy, causing a paper mache (?) pulp to block the lines even more so. The thin telephone lines are owned by the telecommunications company and we, at sporting odds, are not responsible for there condition. If you insist to the telecommunications company that you are signed up with, that they install wider telephone lines so that the cards we send to you in a hand can pass more freely, then the problem should abate. In short, the thin lines that you use are the problem, along with poorly maintained under sea cables, and as a result.....it is not our fault in any way. We look forward to you joining us when you have wider phone lines so we can begin to send you straights that are beaten on the river by the most unbelievable full houses and so that people calling a raise with 7 2 can beat your aa on a regular basis, as with Danno375. Yours sincerely, Hank McBison Stretcher Sporting dogs poker. " So you see Mr V, you are at fault and not them, so smile on and get used to it. Danno375.:rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :moon

I remembered.;)

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? hoist by my own petard!!!!! damn you and that elephant memory transfer!!!!!

[PAULM03]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? Hows this for 2 statistical anomalies, both happened to me last week, not suggesting a fix of any kind (didn't really give an advantage to anyone). Although I too suspect that the cards may not be entirely random. 1) 8 of first 10 hands someone had pocket rockets (13 of first 15 someone was dealt pocket rockets or AK) 2) In my first 25 hands of an STT I had 21 that were an ace with a 4 or lower. That's got to be incredibly long odds. I know and understand the law of large numbers but these 2 games were freaky as fcuk at the time.

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? i am now being punished.... dealt qq opponant called my raise.....k 3 flop.....3 3 3! turn...a river ...a!!!!! what are you supposed to do with that lot?

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? i am now being punished.... dealt qq opponant called my raise.....k 3 flop.....3 3 3! turn...a river ...a!!!!! what are you supposed to do with that lot?:cow :cow :cow

[danno375]

Re: Internet Sites Fixed??? butcher17 is at seat 1 with 3520.00 kaffe is at seat 2 with 4795.00 gladiator1 is at seat 3 with 2390.00 klopeks is at seat 4 with 2010.00 danno375 is at seat 5 with 925.00 2osingoose is at seat 6 with 860.00 Gipbluff is at seat 7 with 6317.00 BarteLars is at seat 8 with 2990.00 gladiator1 posts the large blind 150.00 kaffe posts the small blind 75.00 kaffe: --, -- gladiator1: --, -- klopeks: --, -- danno375: 6s, 6c 2osingoose: --, -- Gipbluff: --, -- BarteLars: --, -- butcher17: --, -- Pre-flop: klopeks: Fold danno375: Call 150.00 2osingoose: Fold Gipbluff: Fold BarteLars: Fold butcher17: Fold kaffe: Call 150.00 gladiator1: Check Flop (Board: 2d, 6h, Kh): kaffe: Bet 150.00 gladiator1: Fold danno375: All in kaffe: Call 775.00 Showdown: kaffe shows: Js, 2h (a pair of Deuces) danno375 shows: 6s, 6c (three of a kind, Sixes) Turn (Board: 2d, 6h, Kh, Jc): River (Board: 2d, 6h, Kh, Jc, Jh): kaffe shows: Js, 2h (full house) Mainpot: kaffe wins the pot of 2000 with full house (0.00 rake were taken for this hand) now don't tell me that i am imagining it.