Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now...

[DC]

I've been messing about on a Horseracing stats website and back fitted a series of rules going back to Jan 1996. The results read as follows... Total bets to date: 3711 Wins: 1397 Strike Rate: 37.64% Return on investment: 88.36% per £100 bet: Loss of £43506 Not impressed?!!! No, but consider if you were to turn the picture upsidedown and LAY these horses. Bearing in mind, no horse was over 2/1... Total bets to date: 3711 Wins: 2314 Strike rate: 62.36% Return on investment: ??? per £100 bet: ??? would the higher prices on exchanges and commission severely reduce any profits when laying? DC

[georgej]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Even reducing by 5% for the increased odds, it's still pretty respectable, but run it through and take a note of the size of the bank you would need. Thats what can make or break a system.

[spreadman]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing?

Return on investment: 88.36% per £100 bet: Loss of £43506 DC

Danny, just a query...do you mean minus 88.36%, or 88.36% loss per £100 staked, or 11.64% loss of original bank? Either way, I'm no expert on horse racing/ exchanges, but I do know that if you are backing or laying at odds of around 3.0 or less, the difference between back and lay will rarely be more than a couple of points.So I would assume, in theory, just multiplying the number of 'correct' bets by, say 0.3 points, and then deducting that figure from your original total loss figure from your 'back' bets, will give you a final total that would represent the profit amount, (as a positive number), if you had laid all the bets. i.e., £43506 minus (2314 x 0.3), and then divided by 3711 to determine profit per bet. Or am I talking the usual cr*p ??! :unsure

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Im agreed with Spreadman. With horses at these prices the exchange price is never usually much higher. Sometimes theyre even lower for hot hot favourites. The 20% bigger prices (or whatever it is they advertise) is usually found in the outsiders for races. Definatly worth giving a follow up imo.

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Spreadman, you would end up down 11% of your TOTAL amount staked over the 10 year period had you BACKED all the horses mentioned. So for every £100 you spent you'd have lost £11.24 DC edit : isn't it (2314 x 1.3) ??? oh I dunno....head hurts...:lol

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Version II A massive reduction in bets... but the horses are lower than 6-4 so the chances of the horse being a higher price on an exchange are reduced. Bets 1634 Wins 679 (so actual wins 955) SR % 41.6% (so actual SR 58.4%) -£26669 lost over ten years, Win% at SP 83.7% Think this sounds better to me. Will check through bank needed stats tomorrow... DC

[spreadman]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing?

isn't it (2314 x 1.3) ??? oh I dunno....head hurts...:lol

The downfall of most lay systems, particularly with laying horses with win odds of 4.0 or more, is that you have to win 5 lays at 1 point, to cover any losing lays for which you have to pay the backer 4 points. With your system, if you can use selections that have a low liability, e.g. odds of 3.0 or less, then your bank can withstand more losses before your profit becomes negative. Therefore, you are correct in suggesting a higher figure to be multiplied by 2314, or whatever your total of losing bets was, when backed. An average figure would suffice for the purpose of working out a rough profit estimate. if you are laying (offering) odds of 3.0 (units) against the 1.0 unit bet by the horse backer, then your loss would be the no. of losing lay bets multiplied by 2.0, if I understand the way that the exchanges work. Good luck with the ground work. It is better to establish sound foundations at this early stage, by thorough research, than 'build' up your hopes, for them to 'fall down' at a later stage when the system fails.

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Ok i've spent a few hours tweaking and adjusting this system. Here are the results had you backed each horse to level stakes (£100) showing the overall losses each year: 1997 £5170 lost 1998 £6440 lost 1999 £7456 lost 2000 £3386 lost 2001 £8760 lost 2002 £6447 lost 2003 £11479 lost 2004 £755 lost 2005 to date £3204 lost Total lost to date £53097 I'm encouraged by the fact that if you were to back every horse you'd make a slow and steady loss over the last 9 years. Every year would've lost had you backed each horse level stakes. Every horse was 11-4 or shorter. Some months would've made a profit but overall each year resulted in an overall loss. The worst year would've been 2004 with only £755 lost (7.5points) So choosing to lay each horse would surely result in a winning system? Especially if each horse was only laid to 5% of an every increasing bank. The only problem with this system is that you have to lay each horse just before the off and I would have trouble operating this since I work during the day. Also as each horse is tested for odds of 11-4 I'd have to make sure I wasn't on any horse above 4.5 say, on the exchanges. As you know prices fluxuate and I could have layed a horse at 4.0 that suddenly drifts in the market, goes on to win and shouldn't have been a proper selecion. I suppose this is a rare occurance. I'd also have to make rules such as if two horses are battling for favouritsm then no bet etc. (Yes the horse must be a favourite to qualify) I have a break down of month-by-month loss figures if anyone is interested? DC

[georgej]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? If you want to test out your theory, you might want to try the betfair trading system by gruss (LayItYouMug) http://www.gruss.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ This system allows you to place bets off of an excel spreadsheet - so if you have all the formulas set up to place your bets before the start of a race (i think there is a countdown clock) you should be able to set this p and win all that money. Of course i wouldn't suggest leaving this running without you watching over it, but the option is definately there. It might be worth monitoring a few races to see what happens but hopefuly you're on to a winner. You would probably need a pretty large bankroll to start this though.

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Thanks George. I will post up some qualifiers when I'm totally happy, and paper trade for a month or two. The selections will probably read.... 3:15 Cheltenham LAY DONKEYONE if odds allow (i.e less than 4.50) DO NOT LAY 3LEGJOE or NAVY RUM if said horse starts favourite. This might be a bit confusing for people to understand to start with, but there was a situation today where a horse went off favourite and it's quoted odds were 10-1 in the Racing Post. DC

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed for Monday! Here is the problem I'm going to have. Some of these horses have very close rivals in the market for favouritsm but they should not be laid if the rival horse goes off favourite. For this system to work the selection MUST GO OFF FAVOURITE and be no more than 4.5 to lay. 12.50 Leicester lay ULTIMATE LIMITE/UMBRELLA MAN (if clear fav emerges) 13.10 Folkestone lay HILL FORTS HENRY (if fav) 14.10 Folkestone lay BALLYROBERT (if fav) 14.50 Leicester lay DARYAL (if fav) 15.20 Leicester lay PRINCE ROSCOE (likely fav) remember - no lay if odds are more than 4.5 Now who the hell is going to check this for me while I'm at work??? DC

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! I should also add that each horse should be layed at 5% of my bank liabilty for this paper trade. Bank 1000 units So each horse has a liabilty of 50 units should it win. DC

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Im afraid I cant help you Monday as Im working but let me know if you need help this Thurs or Friday.

[kevsul]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! dont know how this laying system works . But i can post up the odds for each race as they go off , is sporting life live betting shows anygood or do i need to go else where for u D.C. on betfair maybe no work for me monday or tue or wed let me know kev

[Datapunter]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Danny, most definitely worth persuing, been looking at favourites with a price under 2.00 myself, looks promising. As for the odds, you can use oddschecker, they keep a history of the odds on betfair but only for the day itself, so you have to look in the evening of the same day ! ( Click on a race, then click on the name of the horse ) The problem is this : you can see how much the odds went down, but at what point would you place your bet ? You can't just use the lowest odds you see because you'll probably put a bet on before they reach that point. Another source would be the historic information pubished by Betfair themselves, if you can matchup those prices with the SP's you will know if the lay makes it worth it. ( mind you i'm saying this but i haven't actually look at that Betfair data yet ! )

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Thanks guys - much apprecietated - I'll need the odds of the horse say 5 mins before the off as long as it's CLEAR CLEAR favourite - It's likely the second race will have joint favourites from what I can see (3.05 and 3.10 currently) I'll also check with oddschecker in the evenings (and add a slightly higher figure) if no-one is about. This is going to be tricky.... Thanks again, WFTE, Kev and DP DC

[georgej]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! hmmm, as gruss' software reads the odds in excel, this can be saved to a different worksheet before the race start (automatically with a macro), but you would need to constantly update the software with the most current race - not sure that he has automated this yet. Will look into it. May be a little more difficult with defining a favourite in a formula. Are you saying that just before the race starts, you want to lay a horse below 4.5 as long as there is not another below say 4.5 AND within 1 of the favourite? eg fav 3.7 next horse is 4.6 so bet should not take place unless next horse > 4.7 How would you define a clear favourite in odds terms? PS - like you i'm a working stiff, so can't help with collecting the odds etc but will try to throw any ideas i have your way. Good Luck

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Yes George, you're right. I haven't looked into this enough have I? I'd say a difference of 0.5 points would be enough to suggest clear favouritsm. Maybe I shouldn't worry about this side of it too much and just decide on the single horse I'm going to lay each morning providing odds are less than 4.5 before race off. It will be fairly obvious which markets are going to throw up confusion when I look at them in their early stages. I'll think about this while I'm at work today. See you all later. DC

[kevsul]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! hi danny hope this is of some help. 12-50 ultimate limit opened @11/4 stayed 11/4 umbrella man opened 9/2 then 5/1 then 9/2 both lost :nana 1-10 hills fort henry opened @9/4 then in order 2/1---15/8---7/4---15/8 lost:nana chancers dante opened @9/4 stayed @9/4 update other 3 later kev

[kevsul]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! 2-10 ballyrobert opened@9/2--4/1---7/2 also winsley and orient express were 7/2 and of course it lost 2.50 daryal opened 5/2 ---9/4---2/1 chames opened 11/4---3/1---10/3 daryal won 3.20 prince roscoe opened @11/10-----evens---10/11----5/6 next in betting eau pure @7/1 --13/2---6/1---13/2---6/1 prince roscoe lost hope all makes sense D.C kev

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Thanks Kev! :notworthy Really greatful mate- I'll have a good look at this later after I've finished tonight's chores!:ok (I think it may have been a profitable day....?) DC

[spreadman]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Spreadman : Danny, what's 'chores'? Danny : ....mine's a pint....... (I'll set 'em up, you knock 'em down.....:loon ) :spank

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Help needed Monday! Spread :lol , my chores include teaching the piano on a Monday - haha! Ok, firstly Kev - I've taken DP's advice and had a look on Oddschecker - low and behold they have accurate market/odds information up to the off. So, thanks for today mate, but don't worry - you won't need to post up the odds in future because I can simply check on the night of each day's racing. However, I may need your help in future i.e when I'm away, if you're willing to help me? :ok Ok, so I've got the odds up to the race off, I'll stick with Betfair because this is the largest of the online exchanges and it's also where I hold my account. To make it fair, I'll count back FIVE steps from the off and use that as a guide as to what price may have been laid. Please note I'm going to use a liabilty of 100 throughout, to make it easier for my spreadsheet and to compare to normal 100 unit backing. I'm also ignoring commission as it's getting too complex. So 12:50 Leicester - there were 2 qualifiers, ULTIMATE LIMIT (price 3.65) and UMBREALLA MAN (price 5.6) five steps from the off, so ULTIMATE LIMIT was a lay - a win of 37.74 as it lost. 13:10 Folkestone - only interested in HILL FORTS HENRY which was favourite and available at 3.65 again to lay - a win of 37.74 as it lost. 14:10 Folkestone only interested in BALLYROBERT, this was co-favourite and also a price of 5.1 (drifted out big style) so a NO BET on two counts. (Shame cos it lost!) 14:50 Leicester - only interested in DARYAL - this horse went off 2-1f and won but was a huge 3.7 five steps before the off. I lost 100 units on this horse. 15:20 Leicester - only interested in PRINCE ROSCOE which was clear favourite and avaiable at 2.10 to lay. It lost and I would've won 90.91! So total profit (no commission) +66.39 Backing every horse to win 100 units @ SP -£200.00 I think the average price will be about 3.00 - meaning that for every £100 lost I should net £30? profit. Bearing in mind this system lost over £6,200 a year on average (over the last 8 years), I'd possibly win £2000 a year (taking into account commision) for laying horses for £100 a bet. (I'd make more by increasing the liabilty in line with the bank as it gets bigger) However I'd probably need £2000 - £3000 starting bank which I don't have at the moment so I'm happy to test at level 100 bets for now. Thanks again guys for all your input. I'll post up the qualifiers for Tuesday later tonight. DC

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now... Starting bank 2000 Today's profit 66.39 New bank 2066.39 Tomorrow's lays for 100 liabilty... Fakenham 1:30 UN AUTRE ESPERE 2:30 TRESOR PREZINIERE (Providing clear favourites & available before the off @ 4.5 or less)

[kevsul]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now... well done D.C . Both clear favs and both lost could be asystem worth keeping an eye on.. as you say though you might need agood size bank to start. I bet you wish you already had :clap :nana :hope

[daftpegasus]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now... Danny I followed a similar system earlier this year laying the favourite where the odds were 2.2 or less on Betfair. It did very well for me, at it's peak it was up over 700%. However I got greedy and started adjusting the system and lost a lot of those gains. Since then I've been toying with a few different systems none of which have been as good - but with the advent of the jumps and the changing ground/weather conditions I've been looking at the number of favourites that win and it seems very low. I will follow your tips with great interest. Good Luck DP

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now... Starting bank 2066.39 Fakenham 1:30 UN AUTRE ESPERE - lost @ 3.45 (won 40.82) 2:30 TRESOR PREZINIERE - lost @ 2.92 (won 52.08) Total profit today 92.90 New bank = 2159.29 A long long way to go before I put real money on these as it's still early days. Good start tho :)

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now... Wednesday's horses that fit the criteria - nice an early for you ;) 1:20 Hexham not interested in VIC THE PILER, but if PROGRESSIVE or MARSH RUN go off clear fav I'll lay it. 1:50 Hexham ONLY interested in HUKA LODGE if favourite. 2:50 Wincanton Hmm - any horse that goes off CLEAR favourite EXCEPT BILIVERDIN is a lay - probably ATUM RE. 3:00 Hexham ONLY interested in PRINCESSS GREC if favourite. Remember 4.5 is the biggest price I'll lay at. :hope DC

[DC]

Re: Is this system worth pursuing? Testing now... 1.20 Vic The Piler went off favourite so NO BET (Texas Hold'em won HAHA) 1.50 Huka lodge went off joint favourite and was far too big so NO BET 2.50 Scott's Grey went off the 3-1 fav but was much shorter on Betfair, 5 steps back a price of 3.2 was availabe. Scott's Grey won anyway, so a loss of 100 units. 3.00 Princess Grec went off favourite and layed @ 2.66. The horse lost meaning a win of 60.24 A loss of 39.76 today Start bank = 2159.29 New bank = 2119.53 Guys, I'm away for a week now so I won't be able to sustain this thread I'm afraid. See you when I return :ok DC