WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 24, 2005 Share Posted October 24, 2005 Yes, Im sorry, but heres another system by me. This one is based on teams that either consistently win or lose. Seems simple enough I know. Last weekend I scouted through some of the European leagues looking for teams that have taken close to maximum or no points. Obviously the tactic is to back those that have a good record and oppose those with a bad one. Out of 15 teams selected, 10 won. Now it wasnt the strikerate that struck me, more the prices available. They were 1 or 2 around 1/4 and 1/5 as you may expect for teams with these records, but there were also a good deal between 1/2 and Evs and even some odds against.(including a 3.3 that came in) The yield was around 22%. So using a level stakes strategy (1pt) Im going to track these sides in single bets. If two good/bad sides play each other theres no bet. If good plays bad or vice versa the game will recieve double stakes. Teams will mostly be picked using a points per game stat. I havnt chose an exact cutoff point for qualifiers but all teams must have played 8 games or more to qualify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Selections 25th-27th-Selections to back in Bold Brechin vs Queen of South @ 2.86 (Betfair(a.c)) Gretna vs Raith @ 1.38 (Betfair(a.c)) Morton vs Stirling @ 1.28 (Bet365) East Stirling vs Berwick @ 1.33 (Betfair(a.c)) Hearts vs Kilmarnock @ 1.40 (Bet365) Juventus vs Sampdoria @ 1.45 (Betfair(a.c)) Empoli vs AC Milan @ 1.57 (Betfair(a.c)) Cagliari vs Livorno @ 3.66 (Betfair(a.c)) Reggina vs Treviso @ 1.85 (Betfair(a.c)) Mantova vs Torino @ 2.50 (Betfair(a.c) (Serie B) Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen @ 1.44 (Bet365) (Denmark) Esbjerg vs Brondby @ 1.90 (SkyBet) (Denmark) Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek @ 1.27 (SportingOdds) (Croatia) Rudar Velenje vs Primorje @ 1.90 (SportingOdds) (Slovenia) 1pt singles 14pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: Consistency is key 3 more I managed to overlook Celtic vs Motherwell @ 1.20 (Bet365) Livingston vs Rangers @ 1.22 (BlueSquare) Dunfermline vs Hibernian @ 2.00 (PaddyPower) 17pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Ill get this sorted in a min. A few extras for the 25th from the English Non League. Wealdstone vs Hampton + Richmond @ 2.00 (Bet365) Redbridge vs Slough @ 2.37 (StanJames) Windsor vs Leyton @ 2.50 (Bet365) Chesham vs Northwood @ 1.66 (B365) North Ferriby Utd vs Prescot Cables @ 1.61 (Bet365) 22pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 25, 2005 Author Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Results Brechin vs Queen of South 1-1 :( -1.00 Gretna vs Raith 5-1 :) +0.38 Morton vs Stirling 1-2 :( -1.00 East Stirling vs Berwick 1-2 :) +0.33 Wealdstone vs Hampton + Richmond 1-2 :) +1.00 Redbridge vs Slough 1-4 :) +1.37 Windsor vs Leyton 2-0 :( -1.00 Chesham vs Northwood 3-1 :) +0.66 North Ferriby Utd vs Prescot Cables 3-0 :) +0.61 Hearts vs Kilmarnock 1-0 :) +0.40 Juventus vs Sampdoria 2-0 :) +0.45 Empoli vs AC Milan 1-3 :) +0.57 Cagliari vs Livorno 1-1 :( -1.00 Reggina vs Treviso 1-2 :( -1.00 Mantova vs Torino 1-0 :) +1.50 Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen 1-4 :) +0.44 Esbjerg vs Brondby 0-0 :( -1.00 Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek 3-1 :) +0.27 Rudar Velenje vs Primorje 0-4 :) +0.90 Celtic vs Motherwell 5-0 :) +0.20 Livingston vs Rangers 2-2 :( -1.00 Dunfermline vs Hibernian 1-2 :) +1.00 22pts staked 25.08pts returned 3.08pts profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: Consistency is key WFTE, if your looking for a consistant team, your can't go wrong with the NZ Knights in the A-league, played 9 lost 8, you can still get around 1.6 - 1.7 against them most weeks. Bet365 price up this league, I think many other bookies do as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted October 25, 2005 Share Posted October 25, 2005 Re: Consistency is key no Man City in this system? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 26, 2005 Author Share Posted October 26, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Cheers Foolsgold, Ill add them to the list. Any help on where to check out the table and live scores/results? Stats Bets: 22 Wins: 15 Strikerate: 68.81% Profit: +3.08pts Yield: 14% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 27, 2005 Share Posted October 27, 2005 Re: Consistency is key www.a-league.com.au is the offical league site current table TeamPWDLFAGDPTS1. Adelaide United FC952212102172. Sydney FC951316151163. Melbourne Victory FC94321688154. Newcastle Jets FC941413121135. Perth Glory FC941414140136. Central Coast Mariners FC933312102127. Queensland Roar FC93331091128. New Zealand Knights FC9108419-153 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 28, 2005 Author Share Posted October 28, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Selections for Fri 28th Cork City vs St Patricks @ 1.36 (BlueSquare) Derry City vs Waterford @ 1.40 (Lads) Lokeren vs Anderlecht @ 1.91 (Betfair(a.c.)) Newi Cefn Druids vs TNS @ 1.28 (Bet365) 1pt singles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 28, 2005 Author Share Posted October 28, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Cork City vs St Patricks 0-1 :( -1.00 Derry City vs Waterford 0-1 :( -1.00 Lokeren vs Anderlecht 2-2 :( -1.00 Newi Cefn Druids vs TNS 0-6 :) +0.28 4pts staked 1.28pts returned -2.72pts profit Stats Bets: 26 Wins: 16 Strikerate: 61.53% Profit: +0.36pts Yield: 1.38% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 29, 2005 Author Share Posted October 29, 2005 Re: Consistency is key New Zealand Knights vs Central Coast Mariners @ 1.80 (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 29, 2005 Author Share Posted October 29, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Just noticed a mistake above. I highlighted the qualifying team , NZK, rather than the team that should be backed. The price though was for CCM and a check of the league table or FoolsGold post above would make it clear the bet should have been CCM. Due to this I will include the result as it should have been. Apoligies for any confusion. Ive slightly adjusted the needs for this system and selections are now on a win per game or losses per game basis rather than pts per game. Selections must have won or lost 75% of their games. This percentage may be moved depending on results because at the moment its selected a high amount of games. This may change naturally as the season progresses. Selections 29-31/10/05 Chelsea vs Blackburn @ 1.27 (Betfair(a.c)) Birmingham vs Everton @ 2.33 (Betfair(a.c)) Sheff Utd vs Cardiff @ 1.61 (B365) Rijeka vs D.Zagreb @ 2.30 (SportingOdds) Hibernian vs Hearts @ 2.35 (Betfair(a.c)) Dundee Utd vs Celtic @ 1.36 (B365) Dunfermline vs Motherwell @ 2.40 (Betfair(a.c)) Berwick vs Cowdenbeath @ 2.25 (Betfair(a.c)) Gretna vs Morton @ 1.66 (Lads) Excelsior vs S.Liege @ 1.72 (B365) (Belgium) Cologne vs B.Munich @ 1.50 (BlueSq) Fenerbache vs Gaziantepspor @ 1.31 (Betfair(a.c)) Genclerbirligi vs Galatasaray @ 1.66 (Betfair(a.c)) FC Copenhagen vs Midtjylland @ 1.50 (B365) Willem II vs Feyenoord @ 1.70 (SportingOdds) Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar @ 1.72 (W.Hills) FC Twente vs PSV @ 1.73 (Betfair(a.c)) Utrecht vs Roosendaal @ 1.50 (BlueSq) Braga vs Belenenses @ 1.57 (SportingOdds) (Portugal) Penefiel vs Academica @ 2.90 (Betfair(a.c)) (Portugal) Lyon vs Sochaux @ 1.36 (B365) Leece vs Messina @ 4.13 (Betfair(a.c)) Reggina vs Lazio @ 2.90 (Betfair(a.c)) Avellino vs Mantova @ 2.50 (Betfair(a.c)) (SerieB) Xamax vs Aarau @ 3.20 (Lads) (Swiss) Ried vs Admira @ 1.80 (Betfair(a,c)) (Austria) Maribor Piv Lasko vs Rudar Velenje @ 1.22 (SportingOdds) (Slovenia) East Thurrock vs Hampton @ 2.20 (B365) Salisbury vs Kings Lynn @ 1.80 (B365) Banbury vs Northwood @ 1.44 (B365) North Ferriby Utd vs Marine @ 2.00 (B365) 1pt singles 32pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 Re: Consistency is key New Zealand Knights vs Central Coast Mariners 1-3 :) +0.80 Chelsea vs Blackburn 4-2 :) +0.27 Birmingham vs Everton 0-1 :( -1.00 Sheff Utd vs Cardiff 0-0 :( -1.00 Rijeka vs D.Zagreb 0-1 :) +1.30 Hibernian vs Hearts 2-0 :( -1.00 Dundee Utd vs Celtic 2-4 :) +0.36 Dunfermline vs Motherwell 0-3 :) +1.40 Berwick vs Cowdenbeath 1-0 :) +1.25 Gretna vs Morton 3-1 :) +0.66 Excelsior vs S.Liege 2-1 :( -1.00 Cologne vs B.Munich 1-2 :) +0.50 Fenerbache vs Gaziantepspor 0-0 :( -1.00 Genclerbirligi vs Galatasaray 2-1 :( -1.00 FC Copenhagen vs Midtjylland 2-0 :) +0.50 Willem II vs Feyenoord 1-3 :) +0.70 Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar 0-2 :) +0.72 FC Twente vs PSV 0-1 :) +0.73 Utrecht vs Roosendaal 4-1 :) +0.50 Braga vs Belenenses 2-0 :) +0.57 Penefiel vs Academica 1-0 :( -1.00 Lyon vs Sochaux 1-0 :) +0.36 Leece vs Messina 0-2 :) +3.13 Reggina vs Lazio 1-0 :( -1.00 Avellino vs Mantova 0-0 :( -1.00 Xamax vs Aarau 2-0 :( -1.00 Ried vs Admira 4-0 :) +0.80 Maribor Piv Lasko vs Rudar Velenje 1-1 :( -1.00 East Thurrock vs Hampton 0-2 :) +1.20 Salisbury vs Kings Lynn 1-0 :) +0.80 Banbury vs Northwood 0-1 :( -1.00 North Ferriby Utd vs Marine 0-2 :( -1.00 1pt singles 32pts staked 35.55pts returned 3.55pts profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 2, 2005 Author Share Posted November 2, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Stats Bets: 58 Wins: 35 Strikerate: 60.34% Profit: 3.91pts Yield: 6.74% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted November 5, 2005 Author Share Posted November 5, 2005 Re: Consistency is key Due to an upheavel in job and home Im not going to be around for a while due to not having any net access. If anyone wants to continue to follow this system then the qualifying conditions are simply. Back teams that have won 75%+ of their games, back against teams who have lost 75%+ of their games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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