Anytime Goalscorer Bets - Year End Review

[harry_rag]

Bets	Stake	P/L	ROI	Period
1645	16886.07	514.77	3.05%	2023
2615	28936.66	344.33	1.19%	2024
4260	45822.73	859.10	1.87%	Total

Another profitable year but less so than 2023 which is disappointing. A decent sample size but I guess the returns are marginal rather than conclusive proof of a winning approach.

Nearly 70% of the bets were system selections which had an ROI of 2.86% dragged down by the -3.02% for "study" bets where the system said "no" but I used my "wisdom" and placed the bet anyway. To be fair those bets had a very strong December with the year to date loss being more than halved and I think I've become more selective since it became apparent that my own selections were a drag on the returns,

The big change since the back end of last year has been the transition from having 2 spread firms' prices to use as a consensus to just having the one firm. I'd speculate that they may have realised they can raise their prices to increase their profit margin which will impact my take on "true" fixed odds prices. The first quarter of this year the system was telling me to back 15.2% of all players in my data sample but for the last quarter it was 20.6%. I've made some changes to cut back on the number of selections which should hopefully improve the returns, along with a more selective approach to the "study" bets.

Will carry on and see what the returns are going forward. Hopefully something closer to the Rugby League Tryscorer variant which returned 7.63% last season.