Card Counting......A New Angle......?

[spreadman]

Card Counting - A New Angle....? I was watching a programme recently about the American mathematics student card counters who capitalised on an existing mathematical formula that would tip the odds for a game of Blackjack in the player's favour. I wondered if this concept could be adapted and applied to sport's betting, and more specifically, betting on televised football matches. Imagine each match is a different 'card' in a pack. If during the football season there are, say, 250 televised matches, the pack would consist of 250 different cards, each with a different face, unique, but with one common numerical denominator - the number of goals scored during the match. This pack of cards would have more 'aces' and 'zeros', than 3's or 4's, but we would know, from previous seasons' goal averages, that in the pack , before it was 'dealt', (televised), there would be, a certain per centage of 0's,1's,2's, 3's, etc., just like in a real packof playing cards. Only, in our football deck, there wouldn't be four cards of each number. Which doesn't matter to us, and the blackjack card counter doesn't need to keep track of the cards' numerical values, he just assigns values, negative or psitive, to low value card numbers, (2,3,4,5,etc.), medium, (7,8,9), and high,(10 through to ace). All we would do would be to keep a record of how many 1 goal, two goal etc. matches,or 'cards' had been dealt to us, (televised), and bet accordingly. We would be applying the card counters strategy to games of football. When the counted number value is in the counter's favour, he plays, when it is not, he doesn't. Simple as that. If there are more high cards left in the dealer's pack, you have a better chance of '21', or at least a better hand than the dealer. So, stretching our imaginations, could this be applied, successfully to betting, and in particular, spread betting on low or high scoring matches? If we know during a season there will be 20% of matches with 1 goal scored, 25% with 2 goals etc. 10% with 0 goals, that tips the odds in our favour for an 'under 2.5' bet. The score% may vary, but at the moment, the Premier goal average is 2.1 per match, and most televised games that I trade on are Premier matches. Now here is the questionable premise : if a series of 3 or 4 televised match results are higher than average, e.g. 3-0,4-1,2-3,6-0, is it likely that the next match will be low scoring? To use the card counting analogy, if a sequence dealt is J,J,K,A,10,Q, will a 2 or 3, or a lower card number, be dealt next from the deck? This certainly is the premise for the card counter, who would consider sitting the hand out, or beting low stakes. The danger here, as I see it is the 'gamblers fallacy' - the misguide belief that in a lottery, roulette or two outcome random event such as coin tossing, because four heads have just been tossed, a tail will follow next. This is untrue, in a 'fair' situation, with a sound coin, there is an even chance for a head or tail to be the next outcome. What is true, however, is that the likelihood of a 3 heads sequence becoming a 6 heads sequence, in a limited coin tossing sequence of, say 250 tosses, is less likely, I make it 8/1 against, (2x2x2), though someone may correct me. So, in theory, with a set number of total goal scores expected in 250 matches, it may be possible to predict when a low score result is due, and bet accordingly, knowing the 'deck' to be dealt contains 'cards', namely 'results to come', that are low in (goal) value, and thus in our favour. I can back this theory up with my past results recorded data. I have noticed that after a set of 2 or 3 high scoring results, the next match is a low score 1-0 or 2-0. The longest losing run that I have recorded is 3 consecutive high score matches, followed,. obviously, by a low score match. Indeed, a graph of the goals scored over a season of televised matches has a 'wave' or 'rollercoaster' pattern, with very few 'plateaus'. Below I have recorded the goal totals for this season's televised Sky matches, English leagues, so far : 5,3,0,3,2,4,2,0,2,1,1,3,1,3,1,1,3,0,5,0,3,2,4,1,2,4,0,5,2,3,2,0,4,1,1,2,0,3, 4,2,1,0,4,4,1,2,1,1,2,2,1,5,4,3,2...... Interestingly, you will notice that after a high goals score, generally a low score follows. It is this factor that I hope to benefit from, just as the card counter benefits from a deck in his favour...... I will endeavour to use this 'card counting' system for a spread betting market called 'Total Goal Minutes, a highly risky, volatile market, but with the odds, (pack!), loaded in our favour, I hope to make it profitable. :hope That's enough for now, more details will be posted in a day or two's time. Look out for a new thread, probably called, 'Spreadman's TGM'S System', or something equally unoriginal. Hope the 'TGM' doesn't stand for 'Totally Gone Mad'...:\ I await your response, questions and abuse (!), thank you for listening. :ok

[davidc]

Re: Card Counting......A New Angle......? Hi Spreadman - interesting strategy, good luck with it. Just a couple of small points. Your analogy between blackjack and football looks good on the face of it but there could be a problem with using historical goal stats versus a definite (fixed chance) strategy in blackjack. Using historical stats can be problematic as there is always the possibility that the stats will change over time, for instance the premier league goal stats for the first few rounds this season were lower than in previous seasons. In blackjack, when following a strategy like card counting the odds for the next card to be dealt can be calculated exactly and you can then bet based on the odds of hitting the right cards with a reasonable chance of winning over time. Also the cards in the decks are always the same and the only outside influence on these cards is when they are shuffled whereas with your TGM system there are many outside influences which can affect the result. Have you checked the odds for the under on live sky matches this season and if so do you have an edge. There were 34 from the 55 matches listed which finished under and (if I have worked it out correctly) you would need to have odds of 1.62 or better to give you the advantage for level stake fixed odds betting. It may be a good idea to back test the system with some refinements to see if these figures can be improved. I haven't done any research but you might find that a large proportion of the over games may be teams near the top playing teams near the bottom and you could therefore rule out these games to give you an increased edge. I realise that you are not looking at the fixed odds market but I have no experience in the spread betting markets. Good luck.

[spreadman]

Re: Card Counting......A New Angle......? Cheers, David, very grateful for your input, a lot of common sense there. I agree with your very valid points, the analogy was more of a starting point from an idle moment of free, or 'lateral' thinking. Some of my best creative ideas evolve from using this thought process, not only for systems, but also life in general. I totally concur with the observation that statistics are unreliable over a period of time : I have only records for this and last season, but recall reading average goal stats. somewhere, for the last 5 or 6 seasons, and apart from one 'blip' seem reasonably constant. Point taken, though. In card counting, as you rightly point out, there are clear cut 'parameters',(52 cards, 4 cards of each number, 4 suits, etc.), on which to base your calculations. Televised matches are prone to unpredictable influences, variables, and are not clear cut events. I have considered suggesting to readers of my spreadbetting 'sell' thread that , even if they don't trade, or have no spread betting account, they might consider using my 'tips' for fixed odds 'under 2.5' bets. Funnily enough, I was writing out a brief precis on this when I received messenger notification of your post. (Honest!!).I haven't yet had a chance to check the odds offered on unders, but would guess recently they have 'dived' for Premier matches, to less than 1.8, even 1.6! As you know, the sell system is working well on the trades I make, the reason for this is mainly one of return being greater than loss, (I think it's called 'profit!' :lol ), and is variable, unlike with fixed odds betting, where losses and returns are indeed 'fixed', so before you bet you know exactly how much you will win....or lose! This is not the case with spread betting. Your suggestion for refinement is a good one, already considered by myself. Last season, admittedly in retrospect, I back tested results and 'weeded out' the teams that were loss makers, i.e. high goal scoring teams. At home, Arsenal and Charlton were loss leaders, away, Aston V, Bolton, Man.City, Southampton, Norwich. Conversely, teams to back on unders were, at home, AV,Bolton and M.C., away, Charlton, MU, and Spurs. It's a little too early in the season to form a list, especially as goal averages have been low, but as you surmised, correctly, matches in which a strong home team plays a weak away side seem, expectedly, to be ones to avoid. I will be paper testing my theory on the PL, posting results as they occur, by using it for total goal minute sell trades, which are indirectly related to goals scored in a match. Low scoring matches are again preferable to ensure a profit, with early goals scored meaning a lower goal minutes total 'make up', and hence, a greater return. Thank you, please feel free to input at any time. :ok

[spreadman]

Re: Card Counting......A New Angle......? Just an advanced warning that I will be posting full details in the next day or so of my 'Total Goal minutes' system, consisting of 3 or 4 different strategies, all have been satisfactorily paper tested. If you are not familiar with this market, you have to decide what you think the sum of how many minutes the total of all goals scored in a match will be. For example, if there are 3 goals scored, in the 10th, 25th and 85th minutes of a match, the total goal minutes will be the sum of 10+25+85, which is 120. You simply have to decide, before a match, whether you think the sum total of goal minutes will be greater or less than the offered 'spread' - the two figures that the spread firm nominate, e.g 130-140. If you think there will be less than 130 goal minutes, you will SELL at 130. If you expect a high scoring match you will 'go high' and buy at the higher number of 140. If the result, (called the 'make up'), is less than 130, and you made a 'sell' trade, you win. If it is more than 130, and you made a sell, you lose. The exact amount you lose or win is worked out by taking the 'make up' from the sell figure, ( if the make up is lower), or vice versa, if it's higher. In this instance, in the above example quoted of 120 total goal minutes, the sum is 130 - 120, which = +10. So you would win +10 points for a sell trade. If you had a buy at 140, you would have lost. The sum is : 140 - 120, (the make up), which is 20, so you lose 20 points. Strictly speaking the sum is : 120 - 140 = -20 points. You may wish to seriously consider opening a spread account, if you do not already have one. I cannot guarantee you a profit, but am confident in a positive outcome. You will need a bank of around £50 minimum, but it is possible to follow the system with minimum trades of, say, 5 pence per minute, with a £25 bank. There are some good free offers at the moment for opening accounts. Try www.sportingindex.com with the best and easiest navigable website, but for a choice of spread prices open 2 or 3 accounts, if you have the spare cash. Try www.igsport.com , www.spreadex.com , or www.sportsspread.com as well, though I prefer Sporting for most of my trades. I do hope that you will make the effort, or if wary, follow this thread for a while, and if you then feel happy, start trading. It's not so difficult as many people imagine, and I'm here most nights to answer any queries you may have. :ok

[spreadman]

Re: Card Counting......A New Angle......? IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR PUNTERS UNFAMILIAR WITH MY RECENTLY INTRODUCED SPREAD BETTING SYSTEMS..... I've edited this post for people who have been directed here from other forums, seeking information about my new spread betting systems....thank you for coming in to the punter's lounge,I trust that your visit will be an enjoyable and informative one, and lengthy.....the doors are locked!! :loon For anyone unsure of what my new thread is about, please read the information in the posts I have made, below, it will clarify the other threads I have recently started, namely the 'Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System, Trades for today - first post' and the 'Re: new system starts today' thread. Post No. 1 is a good place to start.....:D Any questions, post on any of the threads, or PM me. :ok

[spreadman]

Re: Card Counting......A New Angle......? I have just edited the post below this one, as one or two punter's are unsure about the two systems I am currently running, and are confusing the two. I will also be updating all system banks in the next day or so. Next traded match is this Friday, October 21st, spreads and trades posted on the relevant threads early that evening. Posted on Wednesday, 19th October. :D