Casino betting strategy simililar to Martingale

[KurbetiMC]

I want to test new betting strategy and want to ask if somebody has tried this and what does he think(yes, i know that we can't beat the casino, but still I want your opinions).
The idea is that we bet on red/black, odd/even or under/over with 1 dollar. If it doesn't work, we bet with 2, then if we lose with 4. If we win, we go back to 1.
And no, this isn't martingale(at least not at 100%). After we lose with 4, we start the same with 2,4,8 till we get our first bets back (1+2+3=7). Then we go back to 1,2,4. If 2,4,8 doesn't work we continue with 4,8,16 until we get our 2+4+8=14 back and return to it, After that if we lose we go to 8,16,32 and IF this doesn't work, we go back to 1+2+4 till we get our 8+16+32 back and then start from 8+16+32 till we get our last bets. Any opinions on that?

[Giantlife]

ChatGPT response ;

Let's break down the strategy and compare it to the Martingale system.

The Given Strategy

1. Initial Bet Sequence:

   • Bet 1 unit. If you lose, move to step 2.
   • Bet 2 units. If you lose, move to step 3.
   • Bet 4 units. If you win, return to step 1. If you lose, proceed to the next phase.

2. Second Phase (2, 4, 8):

   • Bet 2 units. If you lose, move to step 2.
   • Bet 4 units. If you lose, move to step 3.
   • Bet 8 units. If you win, return to step 1. If you lose, proceed to the next phase.

3. Third Phase (4, 8, 16):

   • Bet 4 units. If you lose, move to step 2.
   • Bet 8 units. If you lose, move to step 3.
   • Bet 16 units. If you win, return to step 1. If you lose, proceed to the next phase.

4. Fourth Phase (8, 16, 32):

   • Bet 8 units. If you lose, move to step 2.
   • Bet 16 units. If you lose, move to step 3.
   • Bet 32 units. If you win, return to step 1. If you lose, go back to initial phase and continue with 1, 2, 4 till you recover your 8, 16, 32 loss.

Comparison to Martingale

Martingale System:

• Double the bet after every loss.
• Goal: Recover all previous losses with a single win.
• Sequence: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.

Given Strategy:

• Increases bet incrementally through multiple phases.
• Incorporates smaller steps between larger bets.
• Attempts to recover losses over a series of smaller steps.

Analysis

1. Risk and Reward:

   • Martingale has high risk due to exponential growth in bets. A series of losses can lead to very high bets quickly.
   • The given strategy mitigates some of this risk by introducing intermediate steps (1, 2, 4) and then (2, 4, 8), etc.
   • Both systems aim to recover losses but the given strategy does so more incrementally.

2. Bankroll Requirements:

   • Martingale can deplete bankroll quickly due to exponential bet increase.
   • The given strategy still requires a substantial bankroll but grows bets more slowly.

3. Drawdown and Recovery:

   • Martingale recovers all losses with one win.
   • The given strategy requires multiple wins across phases to fully recover losses, which can reduce volatility.

4. Casino Limits:

   • Both systems are affected by table limits but the given strategy might allow for more bets within limits due to slower bet increases.

Example Scenario

Assume a sequence of 4 losses followed by a win:

Martingale:

• Bets: 1, 2, 4, 8 (Total loss if all lost: 15 units)
• Next bet: 16 units, win returns to profit of 1 unit.

Given Strategy:

• Phase 1: 1, 2, 4 (losses, total 7 units)
• Phase 2: 2, 4, 8 (win at 8 units)
• Recovery: Loss of 7 units, win 8 units, net +1 unit.

Conclusion

The given strategy is a modified Martingale system with slower progression and intermediate recovery steps. This can reduce the risk of quickly hitting table limits or exhausting the bankroll, making it potentially safer than the traditional Martingale. However, it still carries the inherent risks of any negative progression system, and long losing streaks can lead to significant losses.

Ultimately, while the strategy might be an improvement over pure Martingale due to its structured phases, it is still risky. The expected value of each bet remains negative due to the house edge, and no betting strategy can overcome this in the long run. Careful bankroll management and awareness of the risks involved are crucial when using any betting system.