Football Model: Over/Under Bets

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A rating based model for football utilizing previous final scores as the only information. - A couple of European Leagues covered. - Number of bookmakers used: 2 (Pinnacle and Pointbet with the latter still being considered due to my recent troubles in accessing their website) Time of publishing tips: hopefully fixed (we will see over the next 2-3 weeks when exactly) - Staking based on Kelly's formula stretched over a traditional 1-10 units scheme. It has been livetested on a different forum. Here are the results: Season 2004/2005 Staked: 1303 Return: 1446,4 Profit/Loss: 143,3 Yield: 11% ***Season 2005/2006 - flawed algorythm period (read more on page 2) Staked: 542.4 Return: 447 Profit/Loss: -95.3 Season 2005/2006 - the rest Staked: 527.8 Return: 514.3 Profit/Loss: -13.4 Total including *** Staked: 2373 Return: 2407.8 Profit/Loss: 34.7 Total without *** Staked: 1830.8 Return: 1960.7 Profit/Loss: 130 Yield: 7.1% last update: 06.11.2005 Lucas

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets

Birmingham	Liverpool	>2.25	@	2.15	for	10
West Ham	Arsenal		@	1.95	for	8.3
Everton	Wigan	>2.25	@	2.07	for	6.3
Chelsea	Aston Villa		@	1.98	for	10
West Brom	Charlton		@	2.04	for	7.2
Man United	Blackburn		@	2.03	for	10
Middlesboro	Sunderland	>2.25	@	1.92	for	3.6
Tottenham	Fulham	>2.25	@	1.91	for	2.7