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Football Model: Over/Under Bets

przeszczepan

By przeszczepan
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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przeszczepan

przeszczepan

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A rating based model for football utilizing previous final scores as the only information. - A couple of European Leagues covered. - Number of bookmakers used: 2 (Pinnacle and Pointbet with the latter still being considered due to my recent troubles in accessing their website) Time of publishing tips: hopefully fixed (we will see over the next 2-3 weeks when exactly) - Staking based on Kelly's formula stretched over a traditional 1-10 units scheme. It has been livetested on a different forum. Here are the results: Season 2004/2005 Staked: 1303 Return: 1446,4 Profit/Loss: 143,3 Yield: 11% ***Season 2005/2006 - flawed algorythm period (read more on page 2) Staked: 542.4 Return: 447 Profit/Loss: -95.3 Season 2005/2006 - the rest Staked: 527.8 Return: 514.3 Profit/Loss: -13.4 Total including *** Staked: 2373 Return: 2407.8 Profit/Loss: 34.7 Total without *** Staked: 1830.8 Return: 1960.7 Profit/Loss: 130 Yield: 7.1% last update: 06.11.2005 Lucas

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przeszczepan

przeszczepan

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets

Birmingham Liverpool >2.25 @ 2.15 for 10
West Ham Arsenal @ 1.95 for 8.3
Everton Wigan >2.25 @ 2.07 for 6.3
Chelsea Aston Villa @ 1.98 for 10
West Brom Charlton @ 2.04 for 7.2
Man United Blackburn @ 2.03 for 10
Middlesboro Sunderland >2.25 @ 1.92 for 3.6
Tottenham Fulham >2.25 @ 1.91 for 2.7
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przeszczepan

przeszczepan

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets Hodgey removed a link to another forum in the first post of this topic having let me know about this in advance. Even though I understand it's the policy of this board not to add traffic to a different website in the race for the 'best betting forum' title, I see no other way to make my current record seem legitimate to the readers than pointing to the place where it has been live tested so far. An idea to start from scratch (which is what I considered and which has also been suggested by the authorities) isn't very appealing since the aim of live testing is to prove a method successful over as big a sample of games as possible thus throwing away a record of over 200 bets dos not seem reasonable. For the above reasons, I stop the strategy before I even started it. Sorry for the fuss and for breaking the rules. Lucas

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Hodgey

Hodgey

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets Lucas, You don't need to stop posting your picks. As I said, write a short preview of your model and put up the summary record of the 200 previous bets. It is up to individuals whether they believe it or not but if your system continues to be succesful (as it has been in the past) then why should they doubt you? I do hope you will reconsider and post your picks here. Cheers, Hodgey.

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przeszczepan

przeszczepan

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets Blackburn West Brom >2.25 @ 2.05 for 5.2 Charlton Tottenham >2.25 @ 2.03 for 2.5 Portsmouth Newcastle >2.25 @ 2.01 for 2.3 Sunderland West Ham 2.25 @ 2.07 for 6.3 Arsenal Birmingham >2.75 @ 2.18 for 10 Aston Villa Middlesboro >2.25 @ 2.03 for 5

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przeszczepan

przeszczepan

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets Guys, During the summer break I was implementing my new idea of a rating system and attempting to automate the process of finding week-by-week selections with some help of VBA coding. This led to the new season selections being made differently to those made previously. I do not mean the method itself because it was kept the same altogether, but I have made some mistakes in coding which flawed the algorythm. Least to say, the selections I have been making week-by-week here were not even similar to those that the model turns out on the very same sample now after the bug was fixed! (How stupid it’s only now that I had time to check it!) I am not making excusess for the poor results achieved so far this season because it’s been mine mistake to post the bets here before double checking for the correctness of the algorythm, but the truth is that neither the succesful first round of the season nor the subsequent medicore rounds were produced by the model. Still, it never crossed my mind to delete those selections just for the sake of keeping only those really made by the model in the live-testing data. On the contrary, I feel it might be an interesting challenge to come back from an about 100 units loss which is the running result of the season. Starting from this week hopefully! Lucas PS -70 units previous week

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przeszczepan

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Re: Football Model: Over/Under Bets Barcelona Zaragoza >2.75 @ 2.03 for 7.6 Sevilla Espanol >2.25 @ 2.09 for 6.9 Sociedad Betis >2.5 @ 2.12 for 2.6 Santander Alaves >2.25 @ 2.13 for 2.8 Villareal Ath Bilbao >2.5 @ 2.08 for 2.3 La Coruna Osasuna >2.5 @ 2.2 for 3.8 Real Madrid Mallorca >2.75 @ 1.87 for 4.8

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