New Zealand Elections

[AJ]

Betfair are covering this market, Election is on Saturday (Friday afternoon in europe) Long term favourite Helen Clarks Labour have had a stinking week and are behind in 3 of the the last 4 polls. They have moved out from 1.4 on Betfair a couple of days ago to 1.75 (you can get 1.85 with centrebet). Don Brashs National Party, has come through a rough week, after he was caught fibbing about linkings to a wierd right wing church, and has moved in from 3.75 a couple of weeks ago to 1.9, the momentium and money seems to be with them. I still think that labour will form the next goverment, and what we are seeing is similar to the late surge of money on John Kerry in Nov. The National party may well win the largest number of seats, but there are unlikely to be any other centre right parties in parlaiment for them to form a coalition with. I think Helen Clark and Labour are great value at anything above 1.6 and are worth a punt. My gut feel is that people don't really like the goverment, but don't want to risk a change. The country is doing well, it has the lowest unemployment rates in the world, and the economy is in good shape. Goverments don't lose from this kind of position.

[AJ]

Re: New Zealand Elections This morning's Herald-DigiPoll gives Labour a substantial lead, with 44.6 per cent compared with National's 37.4 per cent. The DigiPoll was bang on the money last time round is 2002. Voting opens in 22 hours Centrebet now go 2.1 on Labour and 1.65 on National Centrebets manager guy was on the radio explaining the betting patterns They have taken just over $500K on this event, about 85% of the first $400K went on labour, but virtually all of the last $100K in the last 3 days has gone on the National party. I don't think this is driven by events, it's weight of money, I think a lot of people that made large bets on labour early on, started looking to lock in profits a few days ago with covering bets on National. The fact that they started taking money on national suddenly made the news, and since then there has been a stampede of people pilling on national and driving the price down. I think these people are just speculating based on momentum. Happens in a lot of elections. At lunchtime on the day of the US presidental election last year Betfair had the following Bush 3.45 Kerry 1.4, it was just a mug surge. I think the same is happening here.