Lakhani Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Using the RFO(Racing and Football outlook) forecasted odds; I’m going to see if we can make a profit by backing value prices. Basic rules off the system are as follows:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> 1) Back a team (or draw) if the price is greater than forecasted price in the RFO. 2) Only back if the price obtained divided by the rfo forecasted price is greater than 1.25 The RFO forecasted prices are their estimation of what the true odds should be based on their unique ratings system. So hence if I obtain a price greater than that it will hopefully be a value price depending on how accurate the ratings system is. I have not back tested it as I do not have back copies of the RFO so there is no proven track record with this system what so ever. I will start with a bank of 100pts and use 1 point for each selection. Any thoughts or comments welcomed. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 6, 2005 Author Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Just a quick thought. Does anyone know if I'm actually allowed to use thier data without thier permission? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Shouldn't be a problem i would think , good advertising for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Shouldn't be a problem i would think ' date=' good advertising for them.[/quote'] especially if the system has some success! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Ive always considered doing a system using RFO true price odds, supremecy rating and maybe taking in outlook index rating too. Ill be watching with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Just a quick thought. Does anyone know if I'm actually allowed to use thier data without thier permission? You should be alright as you're only using their data as a guide. If you quote now and again, give credits. If you quote a lot, get in touch with them, just as a courtesy. Good luck. :ok :ok I'm an RFO 'fan' so I'll be watching with interest too.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2damnhype Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Lakhani I tried doing something similar a couple of years ago, didn't look at draws, but looked at home/away wins where the best odds available were 10%+ than forecast and they teams were rated 100+ index point superior . i didn't have a great deal of success and sorting out the picks was a real pain - especially when my copy didn't arrive until Thursday!! But I wish you the very best :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted September 6, 2005 Share Posted September 6, 2005 Re: RFO Value System The same as 2damnhype here, I did it almost at the beginning but quite often found myself getting "value" but no cigar. Will be watching with interest though.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgt.Sunshine Posted September 7, 2005 Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System I have always wondered if their predictions and prices proved to be value but never got round to following it through. Glad to see someone giving it a go :ok. I remember working some out one week, then finding that their predictions in the Singles Bar section went completely against the value in their forecasted odds! Are you using a threshold to select your bets, say 10% edge, or are you using all value bets? It would be good to post (and keep a record) of the projected value for each bet. Good luck :D Sorry - just re-read your post and you have put down your selection rules :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2damnhype Posted September 7, 2005 Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Just further to this: The RFO forecasted prices are their estimation of what the true odds should be based on their unique ratings system When I was doing this I did find that similar teams were qualifying week after week, one that springs to mind were Boston, and the results just didn't support this, so as you say the picks are going to be subject to any quirks in their ratings system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Great to hear from everyone! Here are the first picks (Selections In BOLD): Norway V Scotland - Price obtained 6.13 - RFO true price 4.54 - Yield on price 1.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System More picks: Liechtenstein V Luxemborg -Price Obtained 10.975 - RFO price 6.25 -Yield on price1.756 - 1pt Denmark V Georgia - PO 23.8 - RFO 5.22 - Yield on price 4.55 - 1pt Cyprus V Switzerland - PO 6.51 - RFO 3.13 - Yield on price 2.07 - 1pt Poland V Wales - PO 10.5 - RFO 3.8 - Yield on price 2.76 - 1pt All prices are with betfair and are net of commision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted September 7, 2005 Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System The Scots look set to give your system a good start, but it's one half remaining. Cross my fingers I didn't just jinx it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Bet 6: Hungary V Sweeden - Price obtained 5.27 - RFO price 3.32- Yield on price 1.58- 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 7, 2005 Author Share Posted September 7, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Not sure if "yield on price" is the right phrase here. Perhaps it should be edge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dosheroonie Posted September 8, 2005 Share Posted September 8, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Hi Lakhani I like your idea, and was thinking about doing something similar myself, having only recently become acquainted with the RFO. I was thinking about doing the AH based on value bets identified by the RFO. Is this something you have considered? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 8, 2005 Author Share Posted September 8, 2005 Re: RFO Value System I kid you not, i was going to include Northern Ireland in my selctions. Im backing these selections to small stakes with my own money and didnt back it either. Northern Ireland were comfortable qualifiers as well! But as a general rule i never bet when my own team is involved. However i might have to reconsider as England are often poor value. Results: Norway V Scotland :D £5.13 profit Liechtenstein V Luxemborg:( -£1.00 loss Denmark V Georgia :( -£1.00 loss Cyprus V Switzerland:( -£1.00 loss Poland V Wales:( -£1.00 loss Hungary V Sweeden :( -£1.00 loss Starting Bank : 100pts Profit: 0.13pts Current Bank: 100.13pts Yield: 2.16% dosheroonie: Yeah it is something i thought about but due to time restrictions i thought i would just try this one out first. Each teams match odds have a corresponding asian handicap and price. Sometimes this represents better value sometimes worse. I would be happy to give any support if you wanted to start a thread for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 8, 2005 Author Share Posted September 8, 2005 Re: RFO Value System I must stress that a lot of the qualifiers will be long shots and so it could take quite a few picks before we see any significant profits. I plan to run the system for 250 bets. Hopefully the bank doesnt go bust before then!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Bet 7: Chelsea V Sunderland, Betfair price 21.9, RFO 12.37, Edge 1.77, 1pt Bet 8: Man Utd V Man City, Betfair price 9.55, RFO 6.53, Edge 1.46, 1pt Bet 9: Newcastle V Fulham, Betfair price 6.13, RFO 3.67, Edge 1.67, 1pt Bet 10: Sheff Utd V Ipswich, Betfair price 4.8, RFO 3.67, Edge 1.3, 1pt (All prices are net commision) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 10, 2005 Author Share Posted September 10, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Bet 11: Celtic V Aberdeen, Betfair price 10.5, RFO 8.25, Edge 1.27, 1pt Bet 12: Falkirk V Rangers, Betfair price, 14.3, RFO 11, Edge 1.3, 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Bet 7: Chelsea V Sunderland, Betfair price 21.9, RFO 12.37, Edge 1.77, 1pt:( 2-0 Bet 8: Man Utd V Man City, Betfair price 9.55, RFO 6.53, Edge 1.46, 1pt:( 1-1(nearly) Bet 9: Newcastle V Fulham, Betfair price 6.13, RFO 3.67, Edge 1.67, 1pt:( 1-1(nearly) Bet 10: Sheff Utd V Ipswich, Betfair price 4.8, RFO 3.67, Edge 1.3, 1pt:( Bet 11: Celtic V Aberdeen, Betfair price 10.5, RFO 8.25, Edge 1.27, 1pt:( 2-0 Bet 12: Falkirk V Rangers, Betfair price, 14.3, RFO 11, Edge 1.3, 1pt:( (nearly Starting bank:100 Profit/Loss:-5.87pts Current Bank:94.13 Yield:-48.92% More Picks Later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 11, 2005 Author Share Posted September 11, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Bet 13: Barcleona V Mallorca 19.05, 1pt, RFO 8.25, Edge 2.30 or Bet 14: Livingston V Hearts 7.27, 1pt, RFO 3.63, Edge 2.00 Bet 15: Lecce V Ascoli 6.13, 1pt, RFO 3.27, Edge 1.87 Bet 16: Messina V Fiorentina 2.88, 1pt, RFO 2.18, Edge 1.32 Bet 17: Roma V Udinense 5.08, 1pt, RFO 2.97, Edge 1.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakhani Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Re: RFO Value System Bet 13: Barcleona V Mallorca 19.05, 1pt, RFO 8.25, Edge 2.30 :( -1pt Bet 14: Livingston V Hearts 7.27, 1pt, RFO 3.63, Edge 2.00:( -1pt Bet 15: Lecce V Ascoli 6.13, 1pt, RFO 3.27, Edge 1.87:( -1pt Bet 16: Messina V Fiorentina 2.88, 1pt, RFO 2.18, Edge 1.32:( -1pt Bet 17: Roma V Udinense 5.08, 1pt, RFO 2.97, Edge 1.7:D 4.08pt Profit on these bets +0.08pts Starting Bank 100 Profit/Loss: -5.79 Current Bank: 94.21 Yield: -34.05% More bets to come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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