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Racing chat-Thursday 11 Aug

Budgie 65

By Budgie 65
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Budgie 65

Budgie 65

Posted
Posted (edited)

The league's at lingfield tonight kicking off 1710.looks competitive but some big yards represented and the bet that made the brigadier nearly a celebrity jewel maker is running and looks to have a bit in hand 

610 Lin immortal beauty 

710 jewel maker 

740 neandra nap 

810 court pyle 

20 p Yankee And £15 win neandra 15/8

Edited by Budgie 65
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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

The only top-class racing in the UK today is at Lingfield where we have the very unpredictable Racing League races this evening.  I have tried to do what @calva decoy did at Donny last time, i.e. focus on the trainers with a good record at the track.

5.40 Lin Consensus De Vega 4/1 (Roger Varian 27%)

6.40 Lin Zenga 10/3 (Roger Varian 27%)

7.10 Lin Menai Bridge 4/1 (Charlie Hills 18%)

7.40 Lin Neandra 7/4 Andrew Balding (23% with his 3 year olds)

6 x 0.5 win doubles, 4 x 0.5 win trebles and 1 x 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.50 with poss return of 350.91

I have continued in this vain with trainers and jockey runners for my singles bets though there are too many stats to mention here.

5.10 Alablaq 0.3 at 12/1, Aberama Gold (longest traveller KD) 0.3 at 11/1, Cry Havoc (Rae Guest only runner) 0.30 at 20/1 and Global Humour @mick33selection 0.15 at 33/1

5.40 Neptune Legend 0.30 at 14/1 and A La Francaise 0.30 at 11/1

6.10 Kingdom Of Dreams 0.6 win at 11/2 James Tate 25% s/r with 2yo (somehow I can't bring myself to back Immortal Beauty for Richard Hannon)

6.40 Zenga 2 pts win at 10/3 (my PL Nap), He's a Gentleman 0.3 win at 18/1 and Postmark 0.60 at 9/1 with Frankie aboard (good s/r at Lingfield

7.10 Taravera 20/1, Red October 22/1, Fox Power 12/1 all for 0.30 stakes + Prydon 0.6 win at 17/2 (G Scott 29/4 though only 4 winners over last 5 years)

7.40 Pld Port 0.30 win at 10/1 and Desert Emperor 0.6 win at 17/2 Ivan Furtado's only runner (15% S/R with 4 y o +) Why oh why have the Gosdens' put Hayley Turner on Storm Castle? she has a very poor strike rate and it looks as though Frankie could have rode it!

8.10 Country Pyle 1 pt win at 9/2 (Frankies best ride of the IMO), Good Soul 0.30 win at 12/1 and Reverend Hubert 0.30 win at 16/1 (looks to be Richard Hannon's best chance of the day because he has a 20% strike rate with his 4 year old + horses at Lingfield)

Let's see how much I've spent.

Total stakes 14.65 for a full evening of entertainment

Good luck to all this evening, I think you're gonna need it ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two winners so far but not in the multiples.  Menai Bridge got beat so no chance in the multiples.  I have had a 1 pt win on Neandra at 2.58 to compensate for my 0.9 pts other bets.  No point in trying to get 5.5 points back on this as it's too short and if it gets beat I do myself no favours

15.65 total stakes now

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

Some very fancied horses lost this evening at Lingfield, not one favourite won.  Luckily for me I got two winners by utilising @richard-westwood 's strategy of backing more than one horse in my chosen races.  I believe that there is absolutely nothing wrong with this as long as one can see that there will be a decent enough profit from the outcome of the race as long as one of the horses wins the race.  Not sure what I should set the minimum profit to be on each race.  Answers on a postcard I guess.

Any way a thoroughly entertaining evening where my losses were only 3.35 points despite being let down from what looked to be some promising bets.

This makes my MTD now -37.16 and YTD -239.34

There are 5 meetings tomorrow in the UK and I am struggling to find any more than 6 class 4 and above races where the favourite is likely to go off at more than 5/2.  Pathetic 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted

Keeping my cash in pocket with the heat but the hottest trainers over last month with runners at Lingfield tonight are .

P.Evans 13/46 ( 28.3% ) + LSP £36.33

J.Camacho 8/37 ( 21.6 % ) + LSP £36.00 

Leading course seasonal trainers .

A.Balding 12/39 ( 30.8%) LSP + £5.50

R.Guest 3/16 ( 18.8% ) BEST LSP + £15.20 .

Data courtesy of at the races ( probably different elsewhere ) .

ALABLAQ 5.10 

GROUP ONE POWER 7.10 

fit the above criteria & who I've picked in £10k ITV7 .

 

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LEE-GRAYS

LEE-GRAYS

Posted
Posted (edited)

My offering for the league tonight 

5.10 street kid 8/1 2nd ?

5.40 reversion 9/1 ?

6.10 claretina 25/1 ?

6.40 he’s a gentleman 12/1  ?

7.10 Tommy g 33/1 ?

7.40 carrigillihy 25/1?

8.10 reverend Herbert 16/1 ?

all 0.25 e/w bet365 

hope one of first two comes in get money back then ??

 

Edited by LEE-GRAYS
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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted

After the sprint race in France on sunday- More evidence today of the 3yos being substandard re the older horses.

commandment 5/4 fav last of 4.

berkshire shadow last of 4


one of my main conciderations going forward for the rest of the season will be to pretty much discount the 3yo's especially in the better races.

there maybe some good value with this approach. It will be interesting.

 

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Keeping my cash in pocket with the heat but the hottest trainers over last month with runners at Lingfield tonight are .

P.Evans 13/46 ( 28.3% ) + LSP £36.33

J.Camacho 8/37 ( 21.6 % ) + LSP £36.00 

Leading course seasonal trainers .

A.Balding 12/39 ( 30.8%) LSP + £5.50

R.Guest 3/16 ( 18.8% ) BEST LSP + £15.20 .

Data courtesy of at the races ( probably different elsewhere ) .

ALABLAQ 5.10 

GROUP ONE POWER 7.10 

fit the above criteria & who I've picked in £10k ITV7 .

 

So Rae Guest with the best LSP this season at Lingfield bags a 14/1 winner with CRY HAVOC in the 5.10.

The amount of kick back with the dry surface looks like horses that race handy tonight may have an advantage.

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alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, calva decoy said:

So Rae Guest with the best LSP this season at Lingfield bags a 14/1 winner with CRY HAVOC in the 5.10.

The amount of kick back with the dry surface looks like horses that race handy tonight may have an advantage.

Where on the ATR website are you seeing thsoe stats?

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Where on the ATR website are you seeing thsoe stats?

https://www.attheraces.com/racecards/Lingfield/11-August-2022/SmartStats

Smart stats on the ATR web site Alex

I backed it too.  6.30 towards my 14.65 total stakes

Yes, that looked awfully dusty there at Lingfield; I think that the horses and jockeys need goggles

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks @calva decoy & @The Equaliser - it's now very obvious, I was looking so much that I didn't see it.  

They are not easy to spot as they are on the same tab line as the race times at the end.

What you also may care to look at is under Racing Post Race cards. When when you click on "stats" you get general information but if you scroll down to the bottom, in red you will see "statistical breakdown by race type" There are some very revealing 5 season stats in there 

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alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

They are not easy to spot as they are on the same tab line as the race times at the end.

What you also may care to look at is under Racing Post Race cards. When when you click on "stats" you get general information but if you scroll down to the bottom, in red you will see "statistical breakdown by race type" There are some very revealing 5 season stats in there 

Thanks for this handy tip.  I had never clicked on that link as I always assumed you needed a subscription to view it.  

 

 

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks for this handy tip.  I had never clicked on that link as I always assumed you needed a subscription to view it.  

 

 

Jumps season you go onto the individual type of races be it chase , hurdles or national hunt flat which is informative ie off the top of my head at Bangor Donald McCain has an excellent record over hurdles compared to his chasers , all good info when looking for a winner if you're a fan of stats ?

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alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

 

 

Course / Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result
Lingfield      
17.10 Brunel Charm 6/1 win  
19.10 Menai Bridge 4/1 win  
  Jean Baptiste 11/1 EW (5 places)  
19.40 Neandra 6/4 win  
20.10 Diamond Bay 6/1 win  

 

Good luck everyone.  ?

 

 

Course / Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result
Lingfield      
17.10 Brunel Charm 6/1 win 4th
19.10 Menai Bridge 4/1 win 2nd
  Jean Baptiste 11/1 EW (5 places) 6th
19.40 Neandra 6/4 win 8th
20.10 Diamond Bay 6/1 win 1st

 

Not too bad, I'm glad that I had one winner at least.  

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LEE-GRAYS

LEE-GRAYS

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

My offering for the league tonight 

5.10 street kid 8/1 2nd ?

5.40 reversion 9/1 ?

6.10 claretina 25/1 ?

6.40 he’s a gentleman 12/1  ?

7.10 Tommy g 33/1 ?

7.40 carrigillihy 25/1?

8.10 reverend Herbert 16/1 ?

all 0.25 e/w bet365 

hope one of first two comes in get money back then ??

 

If only the first race street kid could of got up ??

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Jumps season you go onto the individual type of races be it chase , hurdles or national hunt flat which is informative ie off the top of my head at Bangor Donald McCain has an excellent record over hurdles compared to his chasers , all good info when looking for a winner if you're a fan of stats ?

Yes, aligning the stats to fit with the "players" in a race seems to be the trick.  I know that Matt Chapman hates them. He walked off the set when Adelle Mulrennan was quoting them.  I think on that occasion she was right.  Whilst it is true what Matt Chapman says that just because a 3 year old etc has never won x type of event, for example, it is unwise to say the one that is favourite today can't win it, it is also true that the stats do have a real impact on events.  The question I guess is that one needs to be aware of when to take notice of them or dismiss them  

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