Hunter Chase - 3.55 Hexham and Cheltenham review

[Darran]

First of all I am going to look back to hunter chase night at Cheltenham before I get into the Hexham preview.

Race 1

I was surprised to see Envoye Special so strong in the market, but he was ridden more prominently just as he had been at Kempton. It was a sensible decision from James to sit off the very strong gallop set by Rafferty and Jungle Legend although I just wonder if the pace he went until he dropped off them just meant he had little left at the end to see off the winner. Having said that I'm not sure it made any difference to the result as Fumet d'Oudairies was a cosy winner in the end. He was given a good ride from Jack who didn't panic at any stage and for a horse who only cost £800 he is clearly one of the best buys we have seen in recent years. He could head to Stratford now for their 2m version on hunter chase night. As I suspected Risk And Roll's jumping let him down and he was a well beaten 4th.

Race 2

Amazing to think that Captain McGinley was going to be retired if he under performed again here. He had suffered a small bleed after the Leicester run, but going back to the race where he had put in his best ever performance worked a treat. In a normal year he wouldn't have been eligible to even run in the race. He was the easiest winner of the night, but I get the feeling he was just the only one who truly stayed the trip. The favourite Benefaktor certainly didn't stay having made the running and I don't think it is going to be a strong form race. The other two bets I put up Guttural and Hadmeathello both ran poorly as well. 

Race 3

The fact Trio For Rio jumped so poorly and still won tells you all you need to know about the strength of this contest. I suspect he will ever be kept to easier jumping tests like Ludlow or stick to pointing in future because he isn't going to get away with jumping like that in a half decent race. It was a very good ride from Tommie to get him home as well. Fixe Le Kap ran much better than I thought he would and looked the winner at one stage. I'm Wiser Now struggled round the track as I thought he might and Wick Green clearly ran miles below his best which was annoying.

Race 4

Speaking of horses running below their best my best bet of the night Garde Ville certainly did that. At least we have an excuse for the performance as he burst a blood vessel something he has done in the past. Just Cause had been the gamble of the race, but he was a lost cause pretty much the whole race. I'm surprised he didn't pull up although he did finish a distant 4th in the end. I had mentioned in the preview that Monbeg Chit Chat had been improving with every start this season and he did again here to win well from Sugar Baron. Again I don't think the form is overly strong, but he could easily find another opportunity to win a hunter chase.

Race 5

Highway Jewel's win was the most astonishing performance of the night. How on earth she got away with putting a hoof on top of the 16th fence I don't know and fair play to Bradley for staying on top. To then fight back after being headed after 3 out was impressive as well and shows that she is a quality horse. She also jumped out to right which was surprising although I was told she had a sore mouth after chewing through her bit at home and it is thought that was the cause for her jumping out to her right. Hopefully she gets a chance to run in big one next year although she might be off to Stratford first. Fishy Story didn't jump out to her right anywhere near as badly as she did at Stratford and she put up a performance which backs up my thinking that she should have won at Stratford. Miss Seagreen was a bit disappointing for the 2nd start running under rules so she might be one to keep to pointing.

Race 6

This race featured the ride of the night for me and just proves that the best rides aren't always on winners. One of my picks Ennistown had been strong in the market before the race which was a good sign, but his race seemed over at the first where he made a really bad mistake. After that he was at the back of the field jumping badly, but James King never panicked and just allowed him time to find his rhythm again. Eventually he did start to jump better and he started to pick rivals off during the final circuit. I was getting quite excited as they came down the hill because I really thought he was going to win the race and as they turned for home he was only 2L off the lead. Sadly the effort told in the end and he somehow managed to finish out of the places in 5th although he was only beaten 3L. It really was a masterful ride by James King and after his ride to win the Foxhunters at Aintree I think he has ridden the two best rides of the season. Captain Cattistock won the race and fair play to him he kept finding for his young jockey despite the fact he had been left out in front from a fair way out after Kilkishen departed. It is hard to know where he would have finished, but he was going just as well as the winner at the time. Sam Red flew home for 2nd and clearly likes this race. Navanman did well as well and reversed form with Know The Score who was only 7th. Tanit River was 4th and he put his best jumping performance of the season.

Race 7

This promised to be the best race of the night and it certainly turned out that way. On the clock Marcle Ridge put in the best performance of the evening and he was well backed throughout the day. Tommie gave him a sensible ride as he let Risk A Fine get on with it until that one began to drop away so didn't get into the pace battle which looked like could happen on paper. He's a good horse and was suited by this drop in trip. Having said that I do think he would get away with the Stratford Foxhunters' trip round there and he would be good enough to go close if they went down that route. Fair play to Clondaw Westie who backed up his Aintree run by staying on for 2nd close home. He just caught Peacocks Secret who comes out with plenty of credit as well. Barney Dwan never looked like winning, but it was a solid enough run in 4th. Risk A Fine had been a huge drifter and whilst I expected him to drift I didn't think he would get as big as 13/2. He was running a good race until he got tired, but it was a bit of a worrying performance because he dropped away with still a fair way to go. It will be interesting to see where he goes next to see if he can find his form from 2 years ago again.

Finally I have to mention Bob And Co and David Maxwell at Punchestown. It was a much needed result tipping wise as it helped mean it was only a small loss on the night, but I thought he had been beaten as they crossed the line. Luckily he had his nose down where it mattered and he battled very strongly on the run in. He made a couple of jumping errors on the way including one that David did well to survive. Clearly he would have gone close at Cheltenham if he hadn't unseated Sean and surely all roads lead to Cheltenham next March after this. I guess he could go to Stratford first, but it was good to see David get a first big hunter chase win which was deserved. It was an incredible performance from Billaway in 2nd. To run like that after a hard race at Cheltenham and Aintree just shows what a tough and quality horse he is. He really deserves to land a big prize and no doubt he will be a leading fancy for Cheltenham again next season.

On to the Heart Of All England at Hexham this afternoon and it is fair to say that Bet365 made a massive error with their prices last night. God knows why they decided Matts Commission should have been a 7/1 shot, but that price lasted a minute and it was very quickly an 11/4 shot. He should be favourite for this race as he has the best form. Watching back on his last few victories last night it was clear that he has always had a lot in hand at the finish. When he ran at Leicester in February against Chameron and Cousin Pascal I mentioned that the form didn't add up to a huge amount which was true when comparing him to Chameron, but in the context of this race the form is strong. That Leicester race saw him travel strongly in the contest only for him to tire badly in the straight. That wasn't the biggest surprise as he was trying to chase down a very good horse in Chameron and a horse who ended up winning the Aintree Foxhunters. Clearly there is nothing of that quality in this and it was his first run of the season on testing ground. He then went to Hutton Rudby at the end of March and had a very easy success in a Mens Open. He did jump to his right that day which would be a concern here, but it wasn't that bad and he has won round the point course at Hexham (on the inside of the rules track) and he jumped pretty straight that day. He's won on soft ground so the forecast run shouldn't worry him either.

Dr Kananga was on the drift last night until about 9.20 when money came in for him quickly and he was down to around 4/1 from 8/1 in about 15 minutes. He was well backed at Catterick last time when he was 3rd to Cousin Pascal and his only other run of the season was in November at Kimble where he was 4th to Porlock Bay! He made the running at Catterick and got tired in the straight, but whilst you can't knock him for being well beaten by the winner the form of that race isn't very good. The 2nd has been stuffed in two points since which doesn't exactly bode well. What also concerns me is he doesn't really look as if he really stays 3m. He won his maiden over 3m a couple of years ago, but his restricted win was over 2m4f and his runs over 3m outside of the maiden win suggest he doesn't really stay. I can see him really struggling to get up that pretty stiff final climb leaving the back straight.

Snow Castle was 2nd in this 2 years ago and was 2nd on his seasonal return at Wetherby. That race was awful though and he never got involved at all at Carlisle the following month. He was then 3rd in a point last month, but the winner did nothing for the form at Cheltenham last week. The main thing in his corner is that 2nd in this two years ago as Hexham is one of those tracks that does see course specialists.

Worcester Pearmain and Roderick Random know each other fairly well having been 2nd and 3rd at Kelso last month and they were 5th and 2nd at Alnwick back in December. That Kelso race was awful though and it would be a bit disappointing if one of them was good enough to win.

Matthew Man was an 18L 2nd in a novice chase at Catterick, but the winner was long odds on and the others were a very moderate bunch so I don't read much into that form. He was beaten in a restricted at Alnwick back in December although the winner did win a weak Catterick bumper after that. 

I've mentioned Cousin Pascal already in the preview and his trainer runs Irish Anthem here. He was pulled up at Kimble in the Porlock Bay race and then had a very easy task on his only other start on Easter Saturday at Sandon. He hasn't looked the strongest of stayers and he is another possible front runner. As much as I can't back him nothing surprises me when it comes to one of Joe's runners.

The others look to have a fair bit to find although Wayupinthebox is probably over priced and might be capable of hitting the frame after winning on Saturday.

Dr Kananga is coming a long way for this, but I have big doubts about him getting up the hill especially as there are other potential front runners. On all known form Matts Commission has clearly the best form and on point ratings he is a good few lbs clear of the rest. That Leicester run was full of promise and this is a much easier contest. I think there is scope for thinking he should be an even shorter price than he currently is so he rates a solid bet for me. 

Matts Commission 3pts @ 9/4 with Bet365

I nearly always write the preview the night before so instead of changing I am going to add this at the bottom. That gamble on Dr Kananga has continued this morning and he is now currently favourite. That's helpful for us because we now get a bigger price on the tip. For me Matts Commission should be the clear favourite and the market is now wrong.