Early Speed & Call Points

[cosmicway]

We 're all aware that knowing how they will come out of the gates tells a great deal of the story - especially in sprints and middle distances, up to one mile. To understand how the horses will break, we need time measurements for the first 400 yards or so. There may be other ways, such as comparing pairs of horses when raced together in the past, but basically we go by the early speed fractions. So if our horse runs the first 400 yards at 22.50 seconds and his rival at 23.00 seconds, that's a good 2.5 length advantage (since 1 length = 0.20 secs approximately). If that is indeed how the two horses break and the distance is say 5 furlongs, then the horse with the 2.5 length advantage is difficult to be beaten (he only has himself to beat as is often said - meaning he can only lose because of some unexpected problem such as a nose bleed). The question is this: What is the optimum distance from the gates to measure the early fractions, to get meaningful figures. I.e. to be able to predict with some good degree of accuracy the speed patterns in future races ? If we go too far at say 600 yards that's obviously a mistake. At this point the race will have become a tactical affair, our time readings will be unstable and the margin of error high. In my opinion the first call point should be as close as possible to the start point - at 200 yards maybe. What do you think, or know from the racecourses you are following ?

[F1nut]

Re: Early Speed & Call Points Cosmic I fear that the sectional timing for the first 400yds is not as important as it is made out. In the US where they have true sprint races of 3f and 4f it takes some precident but I have always had a problem with calling any race where there is time to employ tactics a true sprint. In 5f etc over here there is plenty of time to come off the pace etc and some of this also depends on the characteristics of the track itself.. I understand the thinking that a horse with a 2.5 length lead has an advantage initially but over the distances we see run here there is normally time for a horse to reel in the leader if it has superior finishing pace. I am a great believer in speed figures but I tend more towards speed coupled with a weight advantage and tend to ignore class as such. If a horse ran 60 secs over a distance in a class g with 9st then there is no reason it cannot put up the same performance in a class C race under the same weight at the same track etc. There is always the different pace etc that will affect the overall time but it gives a basic outline to the ability of a horse. I remeber reading in Odds On magazine (if memory serves me right) about an American pro backer who bet religously in the lower class 3 and 4f races. He noted that sectional times were important over the first 400yds because there was less time to claw back any lost distance and quite often a quicker starting horse could beat an overall faster horse simply because of that fact. I am sure if you read any of the books by Beyer on speed rating it will help you out. F1