NFL MVP 2020 – Betting 6 Players To Win the Award

[ProfessorMJ]

Many sportsbooks are offering the possibility of betting who will win the MVP title in the NFL this year. In this article, I will unveil 6 players whose odds represent good value, in my opinion.

In order for a player to make my list, he had to meet two conditions:
•    Condition #1: There has to be one online sportsbook whose line on this specific player is significantly higher than other bookies.
•    Condition #2: I believe the player in question does hold a reasonable chance of becoming the 2020 MVP.

Before we dive into the candidates, here is a vital statistic to be aware of:

Over the past 30 years, the MVP award was won by: 

24 quarterbacks (80%) and 6 running backs (20%).

Keep that in mind when making your pick.

POTENTIAL MVP #1: Russell Wilson, QB, SEA

Best odds: +1400 at BetOnline.ag (i.e. 15.0 in decimal format)

Other online bookies: +580 (Pinnacle), +800 (William Hill), +800 (DraftKings), +700 (FanDuel), +700 (10Bet), +1000 (Jazz), +600 (bwin), +600 (Intertops), +650 (Bet365).
 
If not for Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Wilson would have won the MVP title in 2019. As a matter of fact, ProFootballFocus named him the MVP last year. He was spectacular with a 66% completion rate, a 31-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, 4,100 passing yards and 342 more on the ground (while adding 3 rushing TDs).

His TD-to-INT ratio has been extraordinary, especially over the past three seasons. In this time frame, he has thrown 100 touchdowns while getting intercepted just 23 times. Compare that to Jameis Winston who had 30 picks last year alone!

Wilson has a couple of good wideouts to throw to: Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The latter took huge leap towards the end of his rookie season, including 160 receiving yards in a playoff game.

At tight end, Will Dissly will be back after playing just six games last year. The organization also signed veteran Greg Olsen. I know, I know, he must be close to 75 years old, but he still caught 52 passes from awful QBs in Carolina last season.

At the running back position, the team still has Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. That being said, Penny will probably miss the first six games, but Seattle grabbed Carlos Hyde. Don’t forget he racked up over 1,000 yards on the ground last year with the Texans.

As you can see above, the vast majority of sportsbook have posted odds between +600 and +800 on Wilson to win the MVP title. At +1400, we are getting a bargain, especially considering the quality of the player.

POTENTIAL MVP #2: Matthew Stafford, QB, DET

Best odds: +6600 at William Hill (i.e. 67.0 in decimal format)

Other online bookies: +2584 (Pinnacle), +4000 (DraftKings), +4400 (FanDuel), +2500 (BetOnline), +4800 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +5000 (Intertops), +5000 (Bet365).
 
This guy is underrated because he plays for a small-market team who has been in the bottom of the standings for a long time. But don’t sleep on him.

He’s been very consistent over the years. Over the past five seasons, he has thrown 125 TD passes versus 49 interceptions. His completion rate hovers around 65% every year.

Last year, he was quietly on pace for 38 TDs, 10 picks and 5,000 passing yards! However, he got hurt and missed the half of the season. It was the first time he missed a game in eight years, which shows how durable he is.

He has a solid trio of WRs with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Golladay is another very underrated NFL player, in my opinion. Did you know he scored 11 TDS and amassed close to 1,200 receiving yards, despite catching balls from David Blough and Jeff Driskell for half the season?

Rookie tight ends tend to struggle, and that’s what happened to T.J. Hockenson. The former #8 overall pick from the 2019 draft is ready to burst onto the scene.

At running back, Kerryon Johnson was already a good option to have on your squad, but the team drafted D’Andre Swift out of Georgia. That will be a very nice duo in the backfield.

The odds on Stafford to be the 2019 MVP vary between +2500 and +5000. I trust Pinnacle’s line accuracy a lot, and their odds on Stafford are +2584. Thefore, grabbing +6600 at William Hill sounds like a wise choice.

POTENTIAL MVP #3: Josh Allen, QB, BUF

Best odds: +6000 at DraftKings (i.e. 61.0 in decimal format)

Other online bookies: +2939 (Pinnacle), +4000 (William Hill), +3800 (FanDuel), +2000 (BetOnline), +5000 (10Bet), +2500 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +4000 (Intertops), +3300 (Bet365).
 
Don’t you see some similarities with Lamar Jackson here? I’m not claiming Josh Allen will have a season comparable to Lamar’s 2019 performance; I’m just saying both guys are in a similar condition.

The Bills have a top 5 defense, while the Ravens also had a top 5 defense last year. Both Lamar and Josh can do damage with their legs. Both play in a run-oriented offense. And yet, Lamar did win the MVP honors last year.

I can envision a scenario where Buffalo ends with a 12-4 or even a 13-3 record this year. If that happens, a Bills player is likely to be the recipient of the MVP award, and the most likely player is always the QB.

The Bills have a stout defense, and their offense is likely to take a big step.

First, the team acquired Stefon Diggs, a game-breaker on offense. Secondly, they have many young budding stars on offense who have a shot at making a leap in 2020: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox. Also, the reports in camp are very optimistic regarding rookie running back Zack Moss.

Most sportsbooks have odds on Allen between +3000 and +4000. I’ll take my chances at +6000 with DraftKings.

POTENTIAL MVP #4: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL

Best odds: +10000 at DraftKings (i.e. 101.0 in decimal format)

Other online bookies: +6987 (Pinnacle), +5000 (William Hill), +6500 (FanDuel), +7500 (BetOnline), +7000 (10Bet), +4000 (Jazz), +7000 (bwin), +6600 (Intertops), +6600 (Bet365).
 
This is going to be a bit technical. If you’ve never heard of conditional probabilities, you may not fully grasp what I’m about to discuss.

As you can see above, the most lines lie between +5000 and +7000. It makes the +10000 odds at DraftKings fairly enticing. That means he is a 100 to 1 underdog to become the 2020 MVP.

That being said,

P(Zeke wins MVP) = P(Zeke wins MVP | a RB wins MVP) * P(a RB wins MVP)

I already showed that about 20% of MVPs were running backs so the above equation becomes:

P(Zeke wins MVP) = P(Zeke wins MVP | a RB wins MVP) * 20%

The recommended play above is a good bet if Elliott has at least a 1% chance of winning the award. In order for this to happen, you want P(Zeke wins MVP | a RB wins MVP) to be at least 5%, in which case you’d obtain:

P(Zeke wins MVP) = 5% * 20% = 1%

So, the vital question is: if God were to tell you in advance that a running back will be declared the 2020 MVP, do you believe Zeke’s chances are at least 5% (i.e. 1 chance out of 20)?

Personally, I think so. There are about 12-15 RBs who hold a reasonable chance of being the most valuable player in the league. Now, Elliott is better than most of them. For this reason, I estimate that Zeke would have a 10% chance of winning the MVP under such circumstances.

So, overall my personal guess is:

P(Zeke wins MVP) = 10% * 20% = 2%.

In other words, I believe he should be a 50-to-1 underdog (which is in line with most bookmakers’ odds), not a 100-to-1 underdog.

Elliott has been great in each of his first four seasons in the NFL. He’s been pretty durable. He now has a good mix of experience and youth (25 years old). What else do you want?

POTENTIAL MVP #5: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN

Best odds: +21484 at Pinnacle (i.e. 215.84 in decimal format)

Other online bookies: +8000 (William Hill), +10000 (DraftKings), +8000 (FanDuel), +9000 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +15000 (bwin), +8000 (Intertops), +8000 (Bet365).
 
This is a very long shot. But the odds at Pinnacle are so much higher than other bookies, and it’s not impossible that the #1 overall pick pulls off the improbable and wins the MVP award.

The cast around him is not bad. You could do worse at WR than having A.J. Green, John Ross, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Also, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard aren’t bad at all.

I must admit, though, that the offensive line is pretty bad and will make things difficult for Burrow. The tight end position is also a question mark with Uzomah and Sample. But hey, you cannot ask for perfect conditions when betting a 216-to-1 underdog, right?

Many college football experts have said Burrow was the most accurate passer they have ever seen. He completed 76% of his passes, and we’re not talking about short passes all the time. He was throwing down the field quite often.

One of his main strengths is above its shoulders. He is very smart, he reads defenses well and he raises his game in big nerve-wracking games. He is poised in the pocket and even though you won’t confuse him with Lamar Jackson, he knows how to avoid the rush.

Betting Joe Burrow to be the league’s MVP represents much better value than wasting your money on a lottery ticket.

POTENTIAL MVP #6: Jameis Winston, QB, NO

Best odds: +20000 at bwin (i.e. 201.0 in decimal format)

Other online bookies: +5375 (Pinnacle), +10000 (William Hill), +10000 (DraftKings), +10000 (FanDuel), +10000 (BetOnline), +5000 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +10000 (Intertops), +12500 (Bet365).
 
Here is another very long shot. It basically requires Drew Brees to get hurt within the first five weeks of the season, or else your bet is doomed.

I certainly don’t wish Brees bad luck, especially considering he seems like such a great human being. However, getting hurt at the QB position is possible, especially when you are 41 years old and not very mobile.

If Brees gets hurt, this play instantly becomes an awesome bet. Much was said about Winston’s 30 interceptions last year. But don’t forget he still threw for the 8th-most passing yards in league history with 5,109.

He did have great weapons to work with: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But the arsenal at his disposal in New Orleans is not bad either. Michael Thomas may be the best receiver in the NFL. Emmanuel Sanders is a sneaky and smart receiver. Jared Cook showed he still had gas left in the tank last year.

In the backfield, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray can be dangerous as well. Add Taysom Hill, who has been the jack-of-all-trades, and you’ve got a very potent offense!

Oh, and did I mention the Saints had one of the best offensive line last year, and all guys are returning in 2020?

The conditions would be perfect for Winston: a great supporting cast and perhaps the best mentor he could hope for in Drew Brees to help him cut down on the turnovers. Keep in mind that Winston is a former #1 overall pick with a strong arm in his mid-twenties.

IMPORTANT WARNING

I do not recommend betting the players above blindly. As is always the case in sports betting, the odds determine whether a play is a good bet or not. Therefore, I believe the picks above are good value bets, but only at the odds stated!

Thanks for reading and be ready for more NFL betting tips from me very soon!

Professor MJ