Asian Dabble

[Dino]

I thought i'd have a dabble at building a systematic betting approach to the asian handicaps.So here's the initial attempt. In a nut shell i've estimated the true odds with a poisson.Then i've worked out the minimum asian odds required to give a positive return if these poisson true odds were correct. If I can get better than the minimum asian odds then I make the bet. Obviously everything depends on how good is the initial poisson.I'll be working on it as the season progresses. I'll stake around a total of 1% of the current bank equally spread over each each selection & stick to the EPL & Championship.There should be between a dozen and 20 bets per weekend.Starting bank therefore will be 1000 points. Prices taken from Oddschecker although the asians are very slow to be priced up. Weekending 13-14 Aug Spurs 0 odds 1.79 @Pinnicle Mbro +0.25,odds 1.85 Bet 365 Aston Villa -0.25,odds 2.04(P) Fulham 0,odds 1.81(P) ManC -0.75,odds 2.1 Bet365 Charlton+0.25,odds 1.85 (B365) Everton +0.75,odds 1.95(B365) Blackburn 0,odds 2.05(B365) Arsenal-1,odds 1.75(B365) Chelsea-1.25,odds 1.85(B365) Leeds+0.25,odds 1.77(B365) Reading+0.5,odds 1.88(P) SheffieldU 0,odds 2.01(P) Southampton 0,odds 1.85(P) Hull +0.75,odds 2.04(P) Stoke+0.5,odds 1.82(P) Crewe+0.25,odds 1.97(P) Burnley-0.25,odds 2.03(P) Ipswich+0.25,odds2.01(P) 0.5 points on each selection. First attempt at a system so its definately a paper test i'm not really expecting too much to soon. DIno.

[Dino]

Re: Asian Dabble Profitable bets. Spurs 0,profit 0.395 units M'bro +0.25,profit 0.2125 units Charlton +0.25,profit 0.425 units Leeds +0.25,profit 0.1925 units Reading +0.5,profit 0.44 units Southampton 0,profit 0.425 units Stoke +0.5,profit 0.41 units Crewe +0.25,profit 0.2425 units Burnley-0.25,profit 0.515 units Ipswich +0.25,profit 0.2525 units. Arsenal -1,profit 0.375 units Pushes. Fulham 0 Partial returns and losses. Aston Villa-0.25,loss 0.25 units ManC-0.75,loss 0.5 Everton +0.75,loss 0.5 Blackburn 0,loss 0.5 Sheff U 0,loss 0.5 Hull+0.75,loss 0.25 Chelsea-1.25,loss 0.25 Starting Bank 1000 Current Bank 1001.35 Overall profit 1.35 units. Winning bets 11 Losing bets 7 Pushes 1 Yield =14.2% DIno