A Draw Trend in Serie B

[psilocybin]

Hi folks! I have a system that is able to group together 136 games from Serie B since 1993 (12 seasons) where the percentage of draws is 56%, equivalent to 1.79 in odds. The Home-Draw-Away results are as follows: 32-76-28. I'm curious to know, based on the information given, if punters think that a similar percentage can be expected over the next few seasons? All responses appreciated!

[slapdash]

Re: A Draw Trend in Serie B Did you come up with system by looking at the data? That can be a dangerous thing to do. The problem is that if you look at the data and work hard enough you're almost bound to be able to cook up a rule that picks out an unusually large number of draws for that particular set of data, especially if you allow the rule to be complicated. And because the rule is designed for that set of data, there's less reason to think it will also work for a different set. A better way would be to divide the data into two halves, use one half to design the system, and then use the other half to test it.