Player Goal Minutes System

[Lakhani]

This is a system purely focused on Spread betting on players goal minutes. I have done no back testing. Most of the trades will be a sell of players goal minutes as i believe they are often artifically pitched high as most punters want to buy player goal minutes. However there may be the rare occasion where i do buy player goal minutes. For each trade i will give what I think should be the true price or value. Bank of 1000 units. Bet 1 Rangers V Livingston Sell Psro goal minutes 0.5pts at 31 - Sporting index True Price approx 30 Stop Loss 200 - Risk 100 pts :ok

[spreadman]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Hi, Lakhani, you are right about player goal minutes being higher than they should be....particularly in the case of teams like Man. Utd., and to some extent, Celtic and Rangers. However, it is a well known fact that at the beginning of a new season the scores and indeed, scorers, are highly unpredictable. For example, after a 6-0 loss for Celtic, who would have expected 4 goals from them...and, indeed, 4 goals put past them. O.K. their opposition was a different class and level, but none the less, an example of early season unpredictability. That said, I feel Rangers will be out to make a warning point to Celtic, and will go all out for goals.Whether Prso will contribute is debatable....as you probably know, trading in player goal minutes is very volatile. Sells tend to win more than buys, but if, for example, you had sold Hartson's PGM's yesterday, you would have been looking at a big loss. I do not follow Scottish football, so am not sure who is Ranger's penalty taker...this is something to consider before you bet, as a late penalty could cost you dearly, and these early matches could be highly competetive, with 50+ bookings points, as players, out of match practice, make clumsy fouls and inaccurate tackles. Personally, I am very tempted to buy total goals in this afternoon's match, but will probably wait and buy in running, if the price has a chance to come down, unless an early goal is scored. I noted last year that a profit could be made by buying total corners in televised Scottish matches, so that could be worth considering this afternoon. Unfortunately, I do not receive Setanta TV, so cannot watch the match live. Good luck, whatever you decide to do, I will follow this thread with interest.:ok

[Lakhani]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Cheers for your views spreadman. I will bear what you said in mind. I think your spot on about the booking points in this afternoons matches.

[spreadman]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Well tipped, Lakhani, profit all round. Bookings showed a 13 points profit on Sporting Index. Total corners, made up at a higher than average at 13, provided 1.5 points profit . An in-running total goals buy would have shown a profit, also. :ok

[Lakhani]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Bet 1:Psro Goal Minutes 23 - 3.5pts profit :ok (Good start) Updated Bank 1003.5pts Spreadman or anyone else, do you know how i should work out the yield? Should it be the return on the amount risked for every match?

[spreadman]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Hi, again Lakhani, one of the mods should be able to make a decision on this, as it is PL custom for tipsters to provide yield, profit, loss, winning/ losing/ total bets information with each results posting. The difficulty with this, specifically with spread betting which is a strange beast when it comes to assessing yield, % profitability etc., is that you cannot always predetermine your potential loss or gain. The more 'right' your trade is, the greater your profit, the more 'wrong', the greater your loss. In many instances your loss potential when selling is limitless, unless you operate a stop loss account. You could try and estimate the average risk in points, and in your case, the sell bet had a maximum win potential of 31 x 0.5pts., but the loss if Prso went on a goal scoring spree could be -100pts. or more. I have experienced the same problem trying to develop a % staking plan for spread betting. I could 'risk' 10% of a £1000 betting bank on a fixed odds bet knowing that my maximum loss will be £100. With a spread bet trade, I can bet 10% of my bank, i.e. £100 per goal, but in a total goals sell trade, where the result could be 4-4, or more, the 'risk' is far greater than £100, possibly a loss of £800 or more could occur. You could try and assess the likely loss, say 4 goals, and divide the 10% bank by 4, which would mean risking £25 per goal. But if 5 or more goals are scored, more than the preferred 10% of the bank is lost. Maybe you will just have to record your profit/loss on each bet, the total number of winning, losing bets, profit or loss on each bet, and a total running bank in points and/or £'s, whichever you find easier. I am sure that the Mods. will advise. Good luck, hope you are looking forward to the start of the football season proper, as I am! :ok

[spreadman]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Me, again....just a thought, regarding 'yield'. Just divide your profit by the original bank, which will give a per centage figure of profit on your original bank. e.g. 3.5 divided by 1000 = 0.0035% Not sure if this is strictly 'yield', and obviously if you had staked 10 points per player goal minute your profit would have been 70(?) points, giving a 'yield' of 70 divided by 1000, which is 0.07%. Alternatively, adding profit to your original bank gives 1070 divided by 1000 which is 1.07 %....profit. It doesn't sound a lot, but if you started with a 100 point bank your 3.5 points gain would be a 3.5% profit.

[Lakhani]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Bet 2Sell Peter Crouch Goal Minutes (IG) for 0.5pts at 26. I estimate true price should be no higher than 21 or 22. Peter Crouch is vastly overated. He's only proved it for half a season. I think he is a good player but wouldnt pay 7m for a player who has only proved it for half a season. He's rated far to highly by IG. :hope

[spreadman]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System "He's red, he's red, his feet stick out of bed, Peter Crouch, Peter Crouch....." As long as his feet don't 'stick' the ball in the goal, Lakhani !!! If you are lucky, Crouchy, ('the giraffe on ice'), may not play a full match, and your bet should still stand, as long as no one tells him where the goal is...("you have to look down to see it, Mr. Crouch"). :loon

[spreadman]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Crouch just taken off, 55th minute....:ok , well done, Lakhani.

[Lakhani]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Bet 2 Crouch Goal minutes = 0 Profit of 13 points New Bank: 1016.5 pts Return on Bank: 1.65% Total Risked: 400pts Total Profit: 16.5pts Yield on amount Risked: 4.125%

[Lakhani]

Re: Player Goal Minutes System Bet 3Arsenal V Chelsea Buy A Del Horno Goal minutes (Sporting index) @ 3 for 0.5 pts Risked/Stop Loss - 1.5pts Always a bit difficult with friendlies but true price should be a bit higher. Del Horno's Goal scoring record in Spain was quite good hence the true price should be closer to 4.5.