Hunter Chase - 4.10 Stratford

[Darran]

The price has obviously long gone and I think it is pretty much at the price it should be now. Golden Tobouggan was a really progressive horse in the 2017 season including beating Dido by 6L at Thorpe Lodge when winning his Intermediate. Last year wasn't so good despite still managing to win 1 of his 3 starts, but this season he looks back to being an improving horse again. I saw him finish 2nd at Chaddesley Corbett when finishing 2nd to Virak who has won both his other starts this season including on Sunday. A couple of weeks later he went to Sheriff Hutton when he finished 2nd to Haymount who is heading to Cheltenham for the Foxhunter this week. For me those two pieces of form are the strongest in the race. I don't think he will have an issue over this trip (he has won over 2m4f) and if the ground got softer it won't bother him either. He should have been favourite for me in the first place and he now heads the market.

Cyrius Moriviere was the original favourite and I am guessing that was based on his hurdle form. He was a 12L 8th in a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at the Grand National meeting last season although he then finished last at Warwick the following month. His chasing career has not gone well although he did run in a Grade 1 at the National meeting albeit he was last beaten 81L. He also made his chasing debut in the same race Might Bite did at Doncaster in December 2016 but he failed to complete. He might have won at the same track the following month, but the saddle slipped. His last chase start saw him finish 4th beaten 77L in a novice chase at Wetherby. Interestingly he has gone back to his former trainer (ignore what the Racing Post spotlight says) who trained in 3 point starts in the 2015 season when he won his maiden on the final of 3 starts. I'm not sure this trip is the best for him especially first time out and if the ground gets any softer. He probably does have the ability to win this, but his life as a chaser is clearly a massive worry and on balance he looks opposable.

I am still having nightmares about Asangy beating Drumlynn at Leicester. I don't think he will have an issue with softer ground as I think he is just a better horse than he was the last time he ran on soft (should it get that bad). I don't think that form is bad at all and although he does have to step up for me to beat the selection I can see him hitting the frame again.

Bletchley Castle's 3rd to Path To Freedom at Sheriff Hutton on his first start since July 2017 looks better since that one finished 2nd at Catterick last week. The problem is he was stuffed behind Master Baker at Taunton and it is hard to know what he really achieved that day as the rest were a poor bunch. I don't think there is anything as good as Master Baker in this, but his rules form from a couple of years ago is nothing special and I think he will have to find improvement to win this.

Brave Jaq was entered in the Leicester race on Friday which I thought would be ideal for him, but I am not surprised the dodged that race as he would not have beaten the winner. As I said after that race he wasn't as keen as he was last season and it might have been that he needed the first run more than anything. He does have 14L to make up on the winner and although we are going up in trip Stratford obviously isn't as stiff as Leicester. The ground will be softer though. He will make the running we know that much it is just a question if he can stay there. I think a place is the best he can hope for.

Hurricane Vic looks under priced by a fair way to me. Dido didn't run too badly when 5th behind Monsieur Gibraltar at Cheltenham last season and the 2nd on his seasonal return at Garthorpe a couple of weeks ago wasn't too bad. I don't think he can win this, but he can run a nice race. I backed Torran Na Dtonn at Charing last month, but he ran out of steam after making the running and it wasn't a strong race. Having said that the trainer does well when he sends one into a Hunter Chase so I respect him on that, but he has plenty to find on the face of it. The other 3 can't be fancied.

I respect Asangy, Bletchley Castle wouldn't be out of it if the 3rd to Path To Freedom is his true form, Brave Jaq should give it a good go from the front and Cyrius Moriviere could get involved if he can get his act together over fences, but first time out I am happy to oppose. For me either of Golden Tobouggan's runs this season would be good enough to take this and he is the most likely winner.

Golden Tobouggan 2.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Edited March 10, 2019 by Darran

[lyric]

wasnt 4/1  at 8.03, always a bad sign when people do  that