luck vs chance calcs for b. system

[liero1]

Hey!

Does anyone use the luck versus chance calculations for any back testing? You can download the template here http://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/luck_skill_sports_betting.php Also a good read!

I find the results often very eye opening - if a system looks good just on ROI and profit, but the p-value is high and there's a chance of 1 in 20 that is was luck.. well, I bin the system!

This below system looks promising in that aspect, one of the best so far .. what do you think?

Edited October 24, 2018 by liero1

[chrisgas]

It would appear from the data you provide that you have a winning system so I hope it does go well for you. The number of bets needed to achieve 1% statistical significance level (p-value = 0.01) is only 83 and you already have placed 276 bets so the system appears to be validated.

I currently use Excel 2010 so if you have this or a later version you may like to add the following lines to the down loaded p-value-calculator:

Cell A9   'Number of bets required for significance = 

Cell B9   Type any positive number eg 500

Cell A10 'T.Dist.RT =

Cell B10 =T.DIST.RT(SQRT(B9)*B2/B4,B9 -1)

Now go to Data, What if Analysis, Goal Seek. This will highlight an input table as follows:

SET CELL to B10

TO VALUE to 0.0099

BY CHANGING CELL to B9

The resulting value in B9 will be the number of bets required for significance for any yield/betting odds pairing (for horse racing usually in the 1000's).

You may also be interested in another statistical method for evaluating systems using the Chi Squared statistic. If you wish Google "Archie a method of evaluating systems". You will find this on the roulette forum although, it was originally wrote for horse racing systems. 

Anyway, good luck with the above system.