jose_felisberto Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 This strategy is based on SOCCER LIVE BETTING. Basically the scheme is to bet in NO MORE GOALS in the match last minutes. Since beginning May until now my account has increased from 60 € to 275€, more than 300 %. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comGood Bets and No Goals… after 85 minutes! Greetings, Felisberto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 11, 2005 Author Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month There is an In-Play game at this time.. Sundsvall v Djurgardens (Swedish Championship) are playing since 18h (London time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month :welcome Jose, an interesting thread, I have used a similar betting strategy for my spread betting, though for me, I have made good profit on goals TO BE SCORED inthe 80th to 90th+ minutes, because in english soccer, this is one of the periods with a higher goal scoring chance, which sounds like the OPPOSITE to your bets. Are your statistics based on European match results? Good luck in the Swedish match.:ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Did you make a bet then ? How did the last minute goal affect this bet ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galea78 Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Did you make a bet then ? How did the last minute goal affect this bet ? It would have lost i would think less i read this all wrong...:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewworks Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Lost me a bundle:@ :@ nothing to do with this system but just felt like a moan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Was there really a last minute goal? thats shocking luck for a first post :lol sorry, shouldnt laugh....hard luck to anyone who lost money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month lol - it was a 94th minute goal........ http://www.dif.se/sidor/match/matchstatistikview.asp?id=2165 :rollin ul m8...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month :( Bad luck on the last minute goal....Jose, if your stats are accurate and can be used as a guide, then, having unfortunately hit the 5 to 1 chance, (21%), of a goal being scored in the last 5+ minutes, according to the laws of averages, (according to Jose's quoted figures), you should win 4 times out of the next 5 bets, though I would, with respect, question the accuracy of the quoted figures, or at least the application and validity of using these statistics to justify this type of bet. Not wishing to pour cold water on a 'surething', I have dug up some stats, a bit old, but still applicable, (Rothman's year book, 2001-2), that illustrate the point I made in my earlier post, concerning goal scoring periods in English league matches. The most important fact is that out of a test sample of 100 games, 264 goals were scored, 24 of which were scored in the 86th-90th minutes, ( approx. 9%), in fact, the highest scoring '5' minute period of all match periods, an apparently complete reversal of the European goal times stats provided by Jose, so his betting strategy would certainly not work if applied to English matches, in fact I suspect the opposite type of bet would show a profit. Gentlemen, it could be that you are chasing a surething that does not exist for the reasons you expect it should. Time will tell............... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month spreadman - it's generally the same all over Europe and I supect it is the same case for the whole world. You are also less likely to get the right price because of moneybuyers who are willing to bet at any cost, more like 1.21 with 5 minutes to go if I remember well - I always lay the next goal in the dying minutes and this is a strategy that pays - if you wanna back no goal you should do so at the beginning or just after ten minutes, but I'm afraid laying towards the end may cost you a packet (unless it's a lay back of a previus bet at nice odds);) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month I've moved this over to systems and strategy, as it seems a more suitable location than the britian forum, although I've left a redirect there. Interesting idea btw, but I'd be concerned about the liquidity of some of these markets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Cheers, Tulenos, it seems to be a contradiction of the stats, but what I suppose you are really betting on, or taking advantage of, is the discrepancy, the difference, between the odds offered and the 'true' odds, which provides the 'value' in the bet, and thus proves to be profitable, if only because the odds makers on the exchange have got their odds wide of the 'true' odds. Interesting, but as Foolsgold points out, liquidity could be a problem, and I would rather bet with the stats, than against them. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Re liquidity - you might be surprised, just like me some time ago, that liquidity rises dramatically in the last 10 minutes of every match, incl. Swedish and Norwegian matches where hardly anything is traded during the whole match. It also looks like a lot of punters are trading just equipped with a livescore site (eg. an absolutely dead match where the goal is as unlikely as a second coming of Christ and yet loads are traded around the 1.2 / 1.1 mark.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 13, 2005 Author Share Posted July 13, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month I will start with 300 units [size=/> 1 (78min) - Djurgardens 1 (93min) BET MINUTE: 85 min BET ODD: 1,45 REAL ODD*: 1,43 STAKE: 35 RESULT: Lost COMMENTS: Bad luck… 3 minutes added and Djugardens scores at 93min and 30 seconds… but 1,43 odd is very good. With this odds, in long term, I will get a very good profit NEW BANK: 265 *Real Odd: Betfair takes a 5% commission on your profit winnings. So a odd of 1,45 (45% profit) is a real odd of 1,43 (45% profit X 95% = 43% profit) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 13, 2005 Author Share Posted July 13, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month In-Play game at this time [size=/> time) Liverpool vs TNS Let’s see.. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted July 13, 2005 Share Posted July 13, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Another last minute goal in that match Jose. Earlier days yet but are you sure you don't watch to change to backing goals in the last 5 minutes ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewworks Posted July 13, 2005 Share Posted July 13, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Again destroyed my day:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 14, 2005 Author Share Posted July 14, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month BET 2 [size=/> 3 (8, 21, 89min) vs TNS 0 ADDED TIME: 2 min BET MINUTE: 87 min BET ODD: 1,68 REAL ODD*: 1,65 STAKE: 35 RESULT: Lost NEW BANK: 230 *Real Odd: Betfair takes a 5% commission on your profit winnings. So a odd of 1,68 (68% profit) is a real odd of 1,65 (68% profit X 95% = 65% profit) BET 3 INITIAL BANK: 230 DATE/UK TIME: 13Jul05 – 19:45h MATCH: Champions League Qualification – Liverpool 3 (8, 21, 89min) vs TNS 0 ADDED TIME: 2 min BET MINUTE: 90 min BET ODD: 1,30 REAL ODD*: 1,29 STAKE: 35 RESULT: Win NEW BANK: 240,15 COMMENTS: Liverpool was pushing hard to score 3 rd goal. Odds were very high.. At 85 minutes there were 1,98 No Goal odds… No luck again… Anyway pick up a 1,30 odd immediately after the goal.. Luck will come :) Next post I will include all statistics that support this strategy. At this time started Mainz vs MIKA match (19:30h UK time). See you soon.. ;) In weekend I will reply you all.. I'm a bit busy these days... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 14, 2005 Author Share Posted July 14, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month BET 4 Mainz 4 (8, 35, 58, 67 min) vs FC MIKA 0 ADDED TIME: 3 min BET MINUTE: 85 min BET ODD: 1,60 REAL ODD*: 1,57 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN NEW BANK: 260,10 Next BetFair In-Play Games: 15Jul05 11h : Seongnam Ilhwa v PSV 16Jul05 11h: Sundowns v Sociedad 11h: Tottenham v Boca Juniors 18h: Liverpool v Leverkusen 17Jul05 16h: Malmo FF v Halmstads 20h: Benfica v Chelsea 18Jul05 11h: Boca Juniors v Sociedad 11h: Tottenham v Sundowns 17h: France U19 v England U19 19h: Serbia & M U19 v Germany U19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 16, 2005 Author Share Posted July 16, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month BET 5 INITIAL BANK: 260,10 DATE/UK TIME: 15Jul05 – 11:00h MATCH: Peace Cup – PSV 2 (4, 23 min) Seongnam Ilhwa (11 min) ADDED TIME: 4 min BET MINUTE: 89 min BET ODD: 1,20 REAL ODD*: 1,19 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN NEW BANK: 266,75 Comments: 1,20 at 89min is nothing special, but for a friendly game I decided to take it, 2 – 1, game more a less decided. 89 min less profit, but also less risk.. Let’s see tomorrow games.. ************************************* BET 6 INITIAL BANK: 266,75 DATE/UK TIME: 16Jul05 – 11:00h MATCH: Peace Cup – Sundowns FC 1 (59min) vs Real Sociedad 0 ADDED TIME: 3 min BET MINUTE: 87 min BET ODD: 1,30 REAL ODD*: 1,29 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN NEW BANK: 276,73 ************************************* BET 7 INITIAL BANK: 276,73 DATE/UK TIME: 16Jul05 – 11:00h MATCH: Peace Cup – Tottenham 2 (28, 32 min) vs Boca Juniors 2 (3, 70 min) ADDED TIME: 2 min BET MINUTE: 86 min BET ODD: 1,30 REAL ODD*: 1,29 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN NEW BANK: 286,71 Comments: Friendly pre season games.. At 85 min odds about 1,35.. a bit low… anyway I think these games are less dangerous than official ones.. players not in the better physical conditions, many substitutions, motivation to win not so big.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 17, 2005 Author Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month The most important fact is that out of a test sample of 100 games, 264 goals were scored, 24 of which were scored in the 86th-90th minutes, ( approx. 9%), in fact, the highest scoring '5' minute period of all match periods, an apparently complete reversal of the European goal times stats provided by Jose, so his betting strategy would certainly not work if applied to English matches, in fact I suspect the opposite type of bet would show a profit.24 goals in 100 matches is something like 1 goal in each 4 games (25%)... taking bets like 1,40 at 85 minutes seems to work, no?? .. Example: GAME1: 10 x 1,40 WIN = 4,0 profit GAME2: 10 x 1,40 WIN = 4,0 profit GAME3: 10 x 1,40 WIN = 4,0 profit GAME4: 10 x 1,40 LOST = -10,0 profit TOTAL PROFIT = 2,0 ------- 2 / 40betted = 0,05 -- 5% proffit in 4 games it seems to work... according to official stats English Premiership league have lower values of Goals/Game and Goal % from 80 minutes than the average... so this works!! let's wait for the season start.. :P greetings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted July 17, 2005 Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Jose - any chance you could do something about the formatting of your posts ? It's really quite difficult to get a handle on what's going on here because of all the white space and different text size everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted July 17, 2005 Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month I can see the logic in your system. In friendlies I think your system should work well especially if a superior team is 3-0 up the effort to score a goal in the last 5 minutes will be low. Two equal teams will not make an extra special effort in the final 5 minutes if the game is a draw . I can see tonight match between Benfica and Chelsea being a good opportiunity to make money on your system .Both look like good defensive side with excellent goalies. In competive in the football season I can see the opposite being true - how many of us have lost on the coupon due to goal in the last few minutes? cheers and good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted July 17, 2005 Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month how many of us have lost on the coupon due to goal in the last few minutes? Too many times. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 17, 2005 Author Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Jose - any chance you could do something about the formatting of your posts ? It's really quite difficult to get a handle on what's going on here because of all the white space and different text size everywhere.I don't understand... I can't format the text... strange forum.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 17, 2005 Author Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month It was a pity I didn’t play in the afternoon match Malmo 2 (8, 52 min) vs Halmstad (46 min)… I could have won 12 – 15 units more… Anyway, betting should be something like an hobby, not an obsession.. BET 10 INITIAL BANK: 311,32 DATE/UK TIME: 17Jul05 – 20:15h MATCH: Friendly – Benfica 0 vs ffice:smarttags" /> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month To make it easier to read... Please write it in this forum, instead of copy + paste from other place... Thats just what i think you doo.. Otherwise still copy+paste, but delete all the spaces in between.. Btw. Nice system.. When i got some time off work, i will take more time to look at it.. But looking forward to soccer season starts all over europe.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose_felisberto Posted July 24, 2005 Author Share Posted July 24, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Hello everyone! [font=/>Serbia & Montenegro 1, very low odds.. I think in all Peace Cup matches there weren’t goals in the end.. Anyway the match’s time wasn’t the best (11h) BET 12 INITIAL BANK: 288,56 DATE/UK TIME: 19Jul05 – 20h MATCH: TNS 0 v Liverpool 3 (26, 85, 86min) BET MINUTE: 85 min STAKE: 35 RESULT: LOST PROFIT: -35 NEW BANK: 253,56 BET 13 INITIAL BANK: 253,56 DATE/UK TIME: 19Jul05 – 20h MATCH: TNS 0 v Liverpool 3 (26, 85, 86min) BET MINUTE: 88 min BET ODD: 1,30 REAL ODD*: 1,28 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +9,98 NEW BANK: 263,54 *************************************************** BET 14 INITIAL BANK: 263,54 DATE/UK TIME: 20Jul05 – 17h MATCH: European Under 19: Greece 0 vs Germany 3 (16, 43, 46min) ADDED TIME: 4 min BET MINUTE: 85 min BET ODD: 1,51 REAL ODD*: 1,48 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +16,96 NEW BANK: 280,50 *************************************************** BET 15 INITIAL BANK: 263,54 DATE/UK TIME: 20Jul05 – 18h MATCH: IFK Goteborg 0 vs Gefle 1 (16 min) ADDED TIME: 4 min BET MINUTE: 85 min BET ODD: 1,43 REAL ODD*: 1,41 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +14,30 NEW BANK: 294,80 *************************************************** BET 16 INITIAL BANK: 263,54 DATE/UK TIME: 20Jul05 – 20h MATCH: European Under 19: France 3 (16, 29, 83min) vs Norway 1 (55 min) ADDED TIME: 2 min BET MINUTE: 89 min BET ODD: 1,18 REAL ODD*: 1,17 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +5,99 NEW BANK: 300,79 *************************************************** BET 17 INITIAL BANK: 300,79 DATE/UK TIME: 21Jul05 – 19h MATCH: Hacken 1 (84min) vs Malmo FF 0 ADDED TIME: 4 min BET MINUTE: 89 min BET ODD: 1,20 REAL ODD*: 1,19 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +6,65 NEW BANK: 307,44 *************************************************** BET 18 INITIAL BANK: 307,44 DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 11:45h MATCH: Everton 1 (52 min) vs Manchester City 1(25 min) ADDED TIME: 3 min BET MINUTE: 90 min BET ODD: 1,13 REAL ODD*: 1,12 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +4,32 NEW BANK: 311,76 *************************************************** BET 19 INITIAL BANK: 311,76 DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 14:30h MATCH: Werder Bremen 1 (19 min) vs B. Leverkusen 0 ADDED TIME: 3 min BET MINUTE: 85 min BET ODD: 1,42 REAL ODD*: 1,40 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +13,97 NEW BANK: 325,73 *************************************************** BET 20 INITIAL BANK: 325,73 DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 15h MATCH: Thailand 0 vs Bolton 1 (79 min) BET MINUTE: 85 min BET ODD: 1,42 REAL ODD*: 1,40 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +13,97 NEW BANK: 339,70 *************************************************** BET 21 INITIAL BANK: 339,70 DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 19h MATCH: Olympiakos 3 vs Liverpool 4 (can’t find goals exact time) BET MINUTE: 88 min BET ODD: 1,27 REAL ODD*: 1,26 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +9,10 NEW BANK: 348,80 *************************************************** BET 22 INITIAL BANK: 339,70 DATE/UK TIME: 23Jul05 – 19h MATCH: European Under 19: England 3 (4, 81, 84 min) vs Norway 2 (23, 79 min) BET MINUTE: 86 min BET ODD: 1,40 REAL ODD*: 1,38 STAKE: 35 RESULT: WIN PROFIT: +13,30 NEW BANK: 362,10 Today games: 24JUL: 16h: Sundsvall vs Helsingborgs 17h: Fredrikstad vs Lyn 19:15h: Aalesund vs Rosenborg I will only play in the Rosenborg game, I will not be at home during afternoon. Anyway I think Norwegian championship is not good for this kind of betting, they have a lot of goals in the last minutes, I had already bad experiences… :) maybe I will bet only at 90min or something like that.. Greetings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hindi Posted July 25, 2005 Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month good thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1980 Posted July 26, 2005 Share Posted July 26, 2005 Re: Over 300 % Profit In 2 Month Idea man! Didnt know there is such a way to bet. My only concern is with the ODDS. Since you need to win 3 to afford one lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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