QPRMinty Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 Just now, QPRMinty said: RESULTS Bet 10: Lost (-1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 96.96 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £234.79 (after 5% commission) =================================================== On a bit of a losing run here, but 1 or 2 winners will put everything back on track. Should say 'Bet 16' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 BET 17 League: Irish Premier Division Date: 15-Aug-17 Time: 19:45 GMT Fixture: Limerick v Shamrock Rovers Bet: 1 Point on Limerick @ 3.35 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.54 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 BET 18 League: Brazilian Serie B Date: 16-Aug-17 Time: 01:30 GMT Fixture: Nautico v Figueirense Bet: 1 Point on Figueirense @ 4.00 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.60 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.92. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 16, 2017 Author Share Posted August 16, 2017 RESULTS Bet 17: Lost (-1 pt) Bet 18: Lost (-1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 94.96 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £224.79 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 BET 19 League: Colombian Liga Aguila Date: 17-Aug-17 Time: 21:15 GMT Fixture: Huila v Junior Bet: 1 Point on Huila @ 3.85 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.19 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.81. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 BET 20 League: Colombian Liga Aguila Date: 18-Aug-17 Time: 02:00 GMT Fixture: Milionarios v Jaguares de Cordoba Bet: 1 Point on Jaguares de Cordoba @ 10.00 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 4.52 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 4.96. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 RESULTS Bet 19: Lost (-1 pt) Bet 20: Lost (-1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 92.96 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £214.79 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Notes On Progress So Far So, this strategy has entered another losing run but, as per the introductory post, this has happened before. I'm now looking to see if it recovers as well as it did last time. Based on the current strike rate of 33% (for all my selections going back to February), the 'Expected Losing Sequence' is around 12 bets. Also, At these odds, a -7.04 point deficit can easily be overturned with 2 to 3 wins. Also to be noted is that many of the high-odds selections have ended in draws or lost by just one goal. For example, Bet 20 (Jaguares de Cordoba) at odds of 10 ended just 1-0 - hardly the whitewash that the odds suggested would occur. A few of those going my way and I'm back on track. As a 'value' strategy', I'm not concentrating on which team is going to win, but on the probabilities and whether my calculations indicate that the available odds have value. Because of that, this is a long-term strategy. Something also worthy of a mention is that the odds of recent selections seem to have been much higher than the norm. I'm not sure why this is, but I haven't changed anything, and the selections are thrown up mechanically. But it is so typical that this goes into free-fall as soon as I begin publishing the selections!! But it's happened before and then gone on a huge winning run. I've noticed a link between this strategy and another one I've been looking at - when one is booming the other is busting and vice versa. If I can work out the connection that would be very useful indeed. I did mention higher up in this thread that I wondered if this could be a 'Summer' league only strategy, and the downturn does seem to have again coincided with the starting up of the winter leagues. None of my recent selections have been from the winter leagues, but I'm wondering if punters and traders have turned their attention to those leagues and this may be having an effect on the value I'm finding (or not finding) in the summer leagues that I'm still working with. I may be looking at that all wrong and tying myself in mental knots with that theory, but it could be a thing! So, to summarise, it's not pretty at the moment, but I'm sticking with it purely because I've witnessed this behaviour before and I want to see if it's going to be a 'normal' pattern for this strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 BET 21 League: Irish Premier League Date: 18-Aug-17 Time: 19:45 GMT Fixture: St. Patricks v Finn Harps Bet: 1 Point on Finn Harps @ 5.90 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.41 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 4.89. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 BET 22 League: Japanese J-League Date: 19-Aug-17 Time: 10:30 GMT Fixture: Iwata v C-Osaka Bet: 1 Point on Iwata @ 3.15 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.78 would still represent value, according to my calculations. I would not take odds below 2.78. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 19, 2017 Author Share Posted August 19, 2017 BET 23 League: Chinese Jia League Date: 19-Aug-17 Time: 12:30 GMT Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai v Shenzhen Bet: 1 Point on Qingdao Huanghai @ 3.60 (William Hill - No commission). Notes: Odds as low as 2.12 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.87. BET 24 League: Finnish Veikkausliiga Date: 19-Aug-17 Time: 15:00 GMT Fixture: PS Kemi v Inter Turku Bet: 1 Point on PS Kemi @ 3.25 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.79 would still represent value, according to my calculations. I would not take odds below 2.91. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 19, 2017 Author Share Posted August 19, 2017 RESULTS Bet 21: Lost (-1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 91.96 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £209.79 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 RESULTS Bet 22: Lost (-1 pt) Bet 23: Won (+2.6 pts) - No Commission (William Hill) Bet 24: Lost (-1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 92.56 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £212.79 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 BET 25 League: Japanese J-League 2 Date: 20-Aug-17 Time: 10:00 GMT Fixture: Yamagata v Jef Utd Chiba Bet: 1 Point on Yamagata @ 3.20 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.31 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.95. BET 26 League: Japanese J-League Date: 20-Aug-17 Time: 10:30 GMT Fixture: Kobe v Yokohama FM Bet: 1 Point on Yokohama @ 2.90 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.54 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.89. BET 27 League: Norwegian OBOS-Ligaen Date: 20-Aug-17 Time: 17:00 GMT Fixture: Asane v Ullensaker Kisa Bet: 1 Point on Ull/Kisa @ 4.50 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.47 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 RESULTS Bet 25: Lost (-1 pt) Bet 26: Lost (- 1pt) Bet 27: Won (+ 3.15 pts) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 93.88 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £234.70 (after 5% commission) *** =================================================== ***The above Current Cash Balance has been adjusted, as I was inadvertently working off a point size of £5, whereas the 100 point bank of £250 bank represents a point size of £2.50. I just noticed it! Apologies. (my own spreadsheet over the last 7 months is using a £5 point size) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
novn Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Belarusin Vysshaya Liga? You're really going off the beaten track to find these. I imagine the prices are soft but I can't scrape together enough data to assess these lower profile leagues adequately, so I'm interested in seeing if you can make it work. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 21, 2017 Author Share Posted August 21, 2017 Thanks novn. The only data I'm using is results data, and obviously goals data from that. I manually update my results data by copying from 'Flashscores' and pasting into a special spreadsheet that extracts the data into a format I can use and then I paste it into my selection workbook. It's really quite quick to do. I've tried importing from the web to Excel, but every now and then it fouls up and lets you down, so I work manually. It takes me about an hour or two on a busy weekend to update the raw data and obtain selections. But I am selecting for 5 different systems at the same time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 21, 2017 Author Share Posted August 21, 2017 BET 28 League: Swedish Superettan Date: 21-Aug-17 Time: 18:00 GMT Fixture: Gefle v Trelleborgs Bet: 1 Point on Trelleborgs @ 3.20 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.34 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.79. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 21, 2017 Author Share Posted August 21, 2017 RESULTS Bet 28: Won (+ 2.20 pts) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 95.97 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £239.93 (after 5% commission) *** =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 26, 2017 Author Share Posted August 26, 2017 BET 29 League: Japanese J-League Date: 26-Aug-17 Time: 11:00 GMT Fixture: C-Osaka v Kashima Bet: 1 Point on C-Osaka @ 3.00 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.45 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.80. BET 30 League: Japanese J-League Date: 26-Aug-17 Time: 11:00 GMT Fixture: Iwata v Kobe Bet: 1 Point on Iwata @ 2.34 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.22 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.33, so not a lot of wriggle room on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 26, 2017 Author Share Posted August 26, 2017 BET 31 League: Chinese Jia League Date: 26-Aug-17 Time: 12:45 GMT Fixture: Shanghai Shenxin v Meizhou Hakka Bet: 1 Point on Shanghai Shenxin @ 3.79 (Average Bookie Price, but available as high as 4.20). Notes: Odds as low as 1.85 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.19. BET 32 League: Swedish Superettan Date: 26-Aug-17 Time: 15:00 GMT Fixture: IK Frej v Norrby IF Bet: 1 Point on Norrby @ 4.40 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.89 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 4.21. BET 33 League: Swedish Allsvenskan Date: 26-Aug-17 Time: 15:00 GMT Fixture: AFC Utd v Hammarby Bet: 1 Point on AFC Utd @ 4.30 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.67 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.82. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 26, 2017 Author Share Posted August 26, 2017 RESULTS Bet 29: Lost (- 1 pt) Bet 30: Won (+ 1.34 pts) Bet 31: Lost (- 1 pt) Bet 32: Won (+ 3.4 pts) Bet 33: Lost (- 1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 97.47 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £243.68 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted August 27, 2017 Author Share Posted August 27, 2017 BET 34 League: Belarusian Vysshaya Liga Date: 27-Aug-17 Time: 14:00 GMT Fixture: Slavia Mozyr v Dinamo Brest Bet: 1 Point on Slavia Mozyr @ 4.70 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.88 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.59. BET 35 League: Swedish Allsvenskan Date: 27-Aug-17 Time: 14:00 GMT Fixture: Kalmar FF v Sirius Bet: 1 Point on Sirius @ 3.65 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.26 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.50. BET 36 League: Icelandic Pepsideildin Date: 27-Aug-17 Time: 18:00 GMT Fixture: Grindavik v KR Reykjavik Bet: 1 Point on Grindavik @ 4.60 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.82 would still represent value, according to my calculations. I would not take odds below 2.82. BET 37 League: Brazilian Serie A Date: 27-Aug-17 Time: 20:00 GMT Fixture: Flamengo v Atletico PR Bet: 1 Point on Atletico-PR @ 6.60 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 4.47 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 6.30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 RESULTS Bet 34: Lost (- 1 pt) Bet 35: Lost (- 1 pt) Bet 36: Lost (- 1 pt) Bet 37: Lost (- 1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 93.47 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £233.68 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 BET 38 League: Chinese Jia League Date: 02-Sept-17 Time: 08:30 GMT Fixture: Meizhou Hakka v Dalian Transcend Bet: 1 Point on Dalian Transcend @ 7.09 (Average available at the Bookies). Notes: Odds as low as 3.22 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.86. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Correction: Bet 38 start time is 12:45 GMT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 RESULTS Bet 38: Lost (- 1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 92.47 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £231.18 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Still hoping for a reversal, as has happened in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 BET 39 League: Estonian Meistriliiga Date: 08-Sept-17 Time: 17:00 GMT Fixture: Parnu JK Vaprus v Tulevik Viljandi Bet: 1 Point on Degerfors @ 3.95 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.45 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.54. BET 40 League: Swedish Superettan Date: 08-Sept-17 Time: 18:00 GMT Fixture: Degerfors v Osters Bet: 1 Point on Degerfors @ 2.94 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.38 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 BET 41 League: Icelandic Pepsidieldin Date: 09-Sept-17 Time: 17:30 GMT Fixture: Olafsvik v Fjolnir Bet: 1 Point on Olafsvik @ 3.40 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.64 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.82 BET 42 League: Brazilian Serie B Date: 09-Sept-17 Time: 20:30 GMT Fixture: Londrina v Ceara Bet: 1 Point on Ceara @ 3.65 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 2.66 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.51. BET 43 League: Brazilian Serie B Date: 09-Sept-17 Time: 20:30 GMT Fixture: Juventude v Internacional Bet: 1 Point on Juventude @ 4.70 (Betfair). Notes: Odds as low as 3.55 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 4.19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPRMinty Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 RESULTS Bet 39: Lost (- 1 pt) Bet 40: Lost (- 1 pt) =================================================== Start Points Balance: 100 ptsCurrent Points Balance: 90.44 pts (after 5% commission) Start Cash Balance: £250Current Cash Balance: £226.11 (after 5% commission) =================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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