Win to Nil / An Underrated Market

[LegendMon]

Hello,

Welcome to my new system, focusing on what I believe to be an underrated market: the Win to Nil. It's something that interests me because there's often not much value in betting large favourites, especially if they play at home. The price boost that's on offer by also including a clean sheet, is what I'll attempt to profit from.

I'm using a similiar method used in my previous system: a mixture of my own (tweaked) ratings based on all results (home, away, and recent form); then combining those chances of winning with the chance of keeping a clean sheet. By looking at past results, I have a rough idea on what Win to Nil "rating" is required for the league I have ready (Swedish Allsvenskan). More leagues will be added along the way.

This is a paper trial, betting 1pt each game. I do not recommend betting money. I will track only profit/loss. 

To kick things off, here's the first game that has been identified:

Bet 1: Sat 29th July/ GIF Sundsvall vs. Malmö / 1pt @ 2.50

 

[LegendMon]

+Swedish Superettan.

Bet 2: Sat 29th July / Brommapojkarna vs. Frej / 1pt @ 2.20

Interestingly, for this game, the system has given Brommapojkarna a 63% chance of winning to nil. This is 1.58 converted to odds, so to get 2.20 represents some good value according to my ratings.