Gaelic Footie & Hurling - July 2nd & 3rd

[Footie Addict]

A good week for betting in G.Footie and Hurling IMO as a range of football and hurling qualifiers are scheduled for this weekend, in addition to a few provincial matches. There is a lot of teams with much to prove, and a couple of picks on the handicap that are very tempting, though the motivation to win big when not required is still a factor in some of the hurling games in particular. * Indicates a Saturday game. I’ll start with my G.Footie selections, and the first one I have here is probably my most confident; Leitrim vs Meath 1/6 (& Meath (-5 Pts) @ 10/11) Meath are the form team in the Championship so far and to me look capable of being a very good side on their day. After narrowly loosing vs Dublin in what was a very good game, and one where Meath played well, Meath then slaughtered Antrim by a scoreline of 5-12 (28) to 0-13 (13), a winning margin of 15 Pts. This would indicate that Meath do not have motivational issues, which have without doubt scuppered a few otherwise decent handicap picks in previous weeks. One such pick was Galway vs Leitrim in the Connaught semi-final. Galway had equalled the full games handicap of -6 Pts by half time and then totally took the foot of the accelerator, and ran out a mere 3 Pts winner. Meath will not rest up in any game, even when they get ahead in it, and further more they look well capable of bagging a few goals too – they hit 4 in the first half vs Antrim. Meath are still a team in transition, with some very impressive young players to date, which IMO is possibly an extra plus point as they tend to be out to impress as much as possible whenever they can. Meath are missing two players from the last match, but Ollie Murphy is back up front and Leitrim are also missing a couple of players. Pick – Meath to win 1/6 Confidence 10/10 Meath (-5Pts) to win 10/11, Confidence 9/10 (unless they have “motivational issuesâ€) *Louth 13/8 vs Roscommon 8/13 (& Roscommon (-2Pts @ 10/11)These two sides are very poor, with Louth advancing from round one of the playoffs by virtue of the fact that they beat possibly the only other Irish county that is weaker than them in terms of G.Footie – Waterford. Roscommon, as tipped lost on the handicap despite the headstart vs a good Mayo side in the Connaught semi final. While Mayo clearly looked more skilful and sharper than Roscommon, Roscommon played much better than when they had a narrow win vs London in round 1 and are now up against a team that is very poor – Louth have not won a Leinster game in years, and will find the step in class from Waterford to Roscommon a step too far. Roscommon are a tough, physical side with a lot to prove and if they go into this match with some determination they should win, and by more than 2 Pts. As Roscommon are an erratic team, the fact that they have lost means that they are due a good performance – they threatened it vs Mayo for a while and played well in the first half but Mayo proved too strong in the 2nd half. Pick – Roscommon to win 8/13 Confidence 9/10 *Sligo (+3Pts @ Evs) vs Kildare Kildare played very badly last time out loosing in the Leinster semi final by 23 points to 9 vs Laois, despite the fact that the match was initially viewed as being too tight to call. Sligo meanwhile had a solid enough display in an 18 points to 16 win over Leinster side Longford, a result and margin that would have been expected. What makes this price good IMO is the number of players Kildare is missing through injuries & suspensions (men off vs Laois in the last round). In total at least 5 players are out, all of which would be considered 1st team or subs likely to feature heavily. Sligo are without 2 players. Significantly Kildare only scored 9 points in their last game, and are without additional forward men for this tie. Sligo also have home advantage. It’s also worth noting that Sligo shocked Kildare by dumping them out of the Championship at the qualifier stages before (I think it was 2003). I can certaintly see them holding Kildare to 3 points on this occasion – but mainly due to Kildare missing players and being unlikely to rack up a good score, as opposed to Sligo being a good side. See link for Kildare injury worries; http://www.pigsback.com/offers/844337106/story.asp?sid=209533 Ryan & Mackenzie-Smith are the most significant blows for Kildare. Pick – Sligo (-3Pts) to win @ Evs, Confidence 8/10 Clare (+3Pts @Evs) vs Westmeath Another one I’m happy to take – Clare are a below average team in football stakes, but Westmeath have gone off the rails IMO since winning their first Leinster Championship last season and in addition to that both of their main players up front Conway and more importantly Dolan (the unquestioned star of their team) are both long term injuries. Westmeath were comfortably beaten in Leinster by Kildare – despite Kildare having played most of the game with a one man handicap due to a mid-1st half red card. Kildare since got hammered by Laois. Meanwhile Westmeath followed that up with an equally poor one point win vs Tipperary, a team not known for their football, and a side similar to Clare in terms of overall ability. Westmeath look particularly poor in front of the posts, from what I have seen of them, and I would not be at all surprised if put in another “below strength†performance vs what appears to be a steadily improving Clare side the last couple of years. I believe this game is tight enough to call, but Evs for a team with a 3 point start vs a team clearly decimated up front and in very bad form is worth a shot. Pick – Clare (+3Pts @ Evs) to win Confidence 6.5/10 Also expect *Limerick to get the better of Carlow, who surprised Offaly in the last round with a one point win. Limerick played well vs Kerry in the football the last time out, and Kerry are All-Ireland Champions. Carlow are also missing to of their starting team. Limerick @ 4/9, price is fair, as I can’t see Carlow winning, despite home advantage. ************************************************ Now – Onto the Hurling *Offaly 2/9 vs Clare (-9Pts @ 10/11) A hurling playoff which sees Clare needing a win to secure advancement to the quarter finals and Offaly needing a win to have any chance of getting to the quarter finals. This match has “slaughter†written all over it, with Offaly tearing itself to pieces at the moment, players angry and walking out, injuries and morale which is through the floor it’s so low, after getting beaten by 31 points by Kilkenny and another savage beating in the first game of the qualifiers. Tales of Offaly’s wows can be read up on at the link below; http://www.gaa.ie/plugins/newsfeed.cgi?rm=content&plugin_data_id=7254 That’s 8 Offaly players unavailable – Clare are a good side who reached the league final this year, including an impressive win over Kilkenny, before loosing in the opening round of the Munster Hurling Championship vs Tipperary in a good close enough game – they will be back to redeem themselves in this game, and knowing the turmoil Offaly is in they will be keen to boost their confidence here with a good win, after all, all other good teams are hitting Offaly at least as hard as to bust a 9Pt handicap. Pick – Clare to win (-9Pts @ 10/11), Confidence 9/10 *********************************************** Kilkenny (-9Pts @ 10/11) vs Wexford This game will have a serious motivation for both sides – but Kilkenny are probably the more motivated after loosing amazingly to Wexford last year in the Championship. Kilkenny are really hungry for success this year having already crushing Offaly (before their players deserted them) by a whopping 6-28 (46) to 0-15 (15). They also hammered Wexford in the league this season and went on to win the league outright also, beating Clare in the final. Wexford are missing a couple of first team players, such as Redmond Barry, while only one player is doubtful for Kilkenny. While it might initially seem like a large handicap to overcome in a provincial final, the gulf in here class is very big, and Kilkenny will be certain to win by as much as possible – no doubts over slaking off in a game like this one, mind you they already showed their attitude is spot on when demolishing Offaly by 31 points in the last round. Meanwhile, Wexford had an 11 point win over Laois in the last round – a team weaker than Offaly. In addition, if Wexford loose they still make the quarter finals, despite loosing (assuming they do loose) Pick – Kilkenny to win (-9Pts @ 10/11), Confidence 8.5/10 Good Luck All

[IrishTW]

Re: Gaelic Footie & Hurling - July 2nd & 3rd Great write-up as ever FA. :ok I'll definitely be backing Roscommon and Clare this weekend. I wouldn't be so confident of Kilkenny overcoming he handicap against Wexford however, esp. after the Leinster s-f between the 2 sides last year that Wexford won at the death.