AFL Rd. 14

[TazaD]

Collingwood +14.5 Not convinced about Port being 'back'. Their last 3 wins have been against poorly performing defenses, and even given that they beat the Dogs at home by just 15 and although they beat St. Kilda by 23, they had 10 less inside 50's and 2 less shots. They've relied on efficient conversion up forward to win, but Collingwood's backline is far better than the last 3 Port have faced. Collingwood's form has been better, only a loss to a strong Melbourne, and last week they had 11 more inside 50's and 4 more shots than Sydney. Port have lost their last 3 games at the dome by 92, 40 and 56 points, all as ~1.50 favs! Collingwood have lost only 1 of their last 7 indoors by more than this, inc. 2 strong performances this year v. Geelong and Adelaide. Although Port won this meeting by 37 points last year (MCG), Collingwood had 1 more inside 40 and 2 less shots, so the game was much closer than the final score suggests...Also in that game Tarrant was goalless, and Preti and Wakelin were both out for the 'Pies!! Really can't see Collingwood getting blown away here.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 14 Geelong -24.5 I said recently that I think Geelong are over-rated, but I think now the spread on this game is too low due to their recent 'poor' performances. Bad kicking v. Freo, 13 more inside 50's v. Collingwood, and low scores against the leagues best defense (Adelaide) and in rain in Brisbane coming back to somewhere near their best form. Hawthorn, on the other hand, have started to slide. 4 straight losses, all by 22+. Their goals have dropped right off, and they have allowed a goal every 2.86 entries into their 50!! If Geelong can score on anyone, it's this Hawthorn team. Geelong have won 9 of their last 10 at the dome, 7 by more than 29+, and they have won the past 3 meetings by 34, 56 and 65 points. Hodge out of the Hawthorn team will be a big loss, and I reckon Geelong will bounce back with a decent win here.