NBA Playoff 2016

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NBA: Miami Heat - Charlotte Hornets

Recommendation: Heat – 4

Odds: 1.869

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


My pick will hardly surprise you. I expected some 2-3 points bigger spread here and willingly take this one.

Teams split season series 2-2, each winning one home and one road game. This is a play-off game though and as stated previously, experience makes a great deal of the winning process, not pure skills only. That’s exactly why Raptors failed again last night (go Pacers!) and I see Hornets’ in just the same situation. Kemba Walker had an excellent regular season but all the pressure is now on his shoulders and everybody expects him to lead his team. Easier said than done when you play against a future Hall of Famer in Dwayne and a pesky lightning like Goran The Dragon J Raptors analogy again, DeRozan and Kyle Lowry failed to accept that mental challenge yesterday, and they’re both better players than Kemba (talking of pure skillset).

Batum will play through a twisted ankle and I hope this will slow him down on the offensive end. Charlotte really need his boost from 3-point line and his smooth passing abilities. Heat should definitely win the war in the paint too, Hassan / Amare have clear advantage over Zeller / Jefferson on both ends of the floor.

All in all, Heat just need Dwayne plus at least one among Dragic / Joe Johnson to bring their average numbers in scoring in order to secure the win. Great probability to happen actually because of the experience we’ve been talking about. Actually this is the main reason I decided to skip trying UNDER 200 points as a second bet here. They’ve passed this line only once in the four regular season games and it really seems a bit high for the opening game of the series. I guess oddsmakers are cautious with Heat catching fire and/or Goran – Kemba start outrunning each other.

The prop bets, Dwayne to score over 20.5 points at around 2.10 looks like a nice thing. Dwayne will get Spoelstra’s confidence to shoot all the clutch possessions and will probably receive quite a few trips to the foul line too

 

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NBA: Houston Rockets - Golden State Warriors

Recommendation: GSW - 5

Odds: 1.909

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


I like this play even with the uncertainty around Steph Curry. Watching him practicing on Houston’s court, making 3-pointer after 3-pointer, everything seemed completely OK with him by the way. If he plays, it will be a big bonus obviously, but this spread (-5 – 6 points) is more like Rockets will ‘’only’’ have to do with Curry-less Warriors. It should still be a double digit win, or at least 7-8 points with the late possession foul calls.

This will be arguably the first case in history when Charles Barkley side with GSW in his prognosis. Sir Charles completely scratched Houston’s chances for even one win in the series, and I tend to agree with him. Rockets are obviously falling apart, Dwight will have a new home in the next season, and even staying Harden is not too interested in this series.

GSW at the other hand, and especially Steve Kerr, would love to sweep the Rockets and have a nice rest for Curry’s ankle and the rest of the starters of course. Their next opponent, Clippers most likely, will be much tougher, so any additional day of rest is of high value indeed