Chi-test experts wanted

[Tonyvdb]

I'm not a mathematician, so forgive me for my - perhaps - silly questions. While surfing, I came upon something that soon fascinated me : the chi-test. It's an excel-calculation that calculates the % of the probability that your (betting-) strategy is based upon coincidence or - let's say - skill. I think I understand it, but I'm not sure : Here's an example, please correct my mistakes : - 881 bets : 304 correct, 577 wrong - average odds : 3,255 *3,255 = 0,3072 *0,3072 x 881 bets = 270,66 (while 304 correct) - adding these figures to the formula, the chi-test gives me the following figure : 0,015 Does that mean that this (succesfull) selection method is 1,5% good luck (coincidence) and that I would have a 98,5%-chance that I have a successfull selectioncriterium. Or is it not that simple? Any help or tips welcome

[razor1]

Re: Chi-test experts wanted I am no maths genuis but if you get 577/881 wrong, how can your selection criteria be 98.5% right? Your average odds figure looks wrong too, did you divide it by the number of bets that you made? I did economics in college and chi tests are all about "lines of best fit" and regression analysis. I would look up a different site to get a better explanation. cheers ray