Flat Racing - Tuesday 16th June

[RussP]

3.30 Thirsk Class 4, 6f handicap with the 14 runners. An open race, the bookies going 6/1 the field and I'm looking to take on the market leaders. Hugie Boy is only a 3yo and is raised 8lb for a neck win lto and that in 2 grades lower than this. It will need to be a seriously progressive type to defy those negatives, whilst Kommander Kirkup and Native Falls have both been raised 3lb following a defeat lto. Signoret is another 3yo and did win lto but that was a maiden and this race is tougher. Straits Of Malacca (14/1 Betfair Sportsbook) - I can understand why people are looking to oppose this but 14/1 looks stupid. Still a 4yo having raced only 14 times so there could still be improvement to come. Has an excellent strike rate winning 4 of those starts, and 3 of its last 6. Surely the only reason for the price is that it's an all or nothing type and has bombed out lto. I can forgive that run. A few things of note; this one copes with an easy 6f or a stiff 5f, prefers fast ground and likes this track. This season's form reads 2/8, 8/9. 1/12 and 7/7. First run up was excellent finishing 2nd from a wide draw at a turning track in this grade but off 6lb lower. That's a good run especially as ground was possibly too soft. It then bombed out at Leicester on better ground but that was over 6f on a stiff track, conditions that don't suit. Was then stepped up in grade and won over C&D from a good draw off 3lb lower. Plumb last lto off this track but that was on the AW which evidently doesn't suit as only beat one home its previous try on the sand. One other thing to say was that its jockey that day has a habit of easing its mount once beaten so I won't read too much into the run. Jockey today takes 3lb off so, in theory, is down to the winning mark of 2 runs ago over C&D. Is eased in grade but doesn't have as good a draw. Assuming the track brings out the best and it runs one of its good races, 14/1 is a price I'm happy to be on at.

[mowgli77]

Let's Twist 5.20pm Thirsk - 0.5pt EW 100-1 Bet365 (1/5 odds first 3) Looked well enough in the paddock on debut but was awkward to post, swerved right out of the stalls and was never in the race. Could be an absolute no hoper but I'm hoping Kevin Ryan has got plenty of work into the horse and expect a better showing today. They haven't gone for any blinkers or cheekpieces and I think it could have just been nervousness and lack of experience on debut. Dark Red in 2nd that day has put in a few consistent performances and looks like a good yardstick. Not one to be too confident about but 100-1 looks big. (Originally took 50-1 earlier :( )