Jump racing 29th April - Cheltenam hunter chase night

[Darran]

Here is my runner by runner guide for Cheltenham this evening 4.50 Penmore Mill – Only run in the one hunter chase this season at Towcester last month where he made slightly hard work of winning a bad race. His two point runs before that were decent efforts as he needed the run first time up and then was a close third to Moroman and Consigliere. You can ignore the one next to his name as he won a walkover last time. He ran at this meeting last year when he travelled so well into the race but just didn’t stay. This trip will be much more suitable and should be pretty hard to beat. Bay To Go – Finished a decent 5th in the Intermediate Final two years and then went on to win at Fontwell. He was disappointing last season until winning a 3 runner race at Marks Tey and then he was beaten a neck in 4 runner race at Guilsborough. Once Golan Way had refused to race at Southwell he was left with a very simple task to win his 2nd hunter chase. He was 4th in this last year and then was a decent third at Stratford. He hasn’t shown a great deal this time around though and was pulled up at Kempton last time. It is hard to see him bettering last years 4th. Swallows Delight – Has been fairly consistent in hunter chases and finally won one at Newton Abbot last May. Finished 2nd in this in 2012, was 4th in 2013 and 6th last year. He hasn’t shown a great deal in two runs this season and more likely to drop another two places than he is to win. Canshetrain – Runs like the drop down to this trip will suit, but bar a fair 2nd hasn’t really shown a great deal this season. Was pulled up in a hunter chase at Ffos Las, but it was run in awful ground so probably a bit better than that effort. Caulkin – His hunter chase efforts had been mainly poor, including in this race where in 2011 he was a well beaten 5th and 2013 when he pulled up, but he finished a 6L 2nd to Popaway last year. Would imagine this has been the target again this time around, but he only reappeared ten days ago when he won a two runner race at Fakenham’s point to point track. He was ¼ that day so it didn’t really tell us much about what sort of form his is. Delta Borget – He unseated in this race in 2012 and was a decent enough 4th last year. Has been so consistent over the years without ever looking like he was going to win a hunter chase. Not been at his best in the two hunter chases he has run in this season, but his pointing form hasn’t been bad and was a decent 2nd last time. Will be great if he could land a hunter chase one day, but a place is the best he can hope for here. Dr Anubis – Pulled up at 200/1 in a Stratford hunter chase last month and can’t see him doing much better here. Gather Round – Still a maiden and won’t be losing that tag here. Getaway Driver – Has two squiggles next to his name in the form book and the best you can say is this trip looks like it will suit him better than 3m in points. Loch Ard – Was trained by David Wachman on the Flat and then went to Willie Mullins over hurdles where he went and won at the 2012 Punchestown Festival. Fair to say things went downhill from there and was off for nearly two years when reappearing at Ffos Las for current connections. That was a decent effort after so long of the track as he was 3rd to Catspan in horrid ground. Interesting Will Biddick has got the mount and would have a decent chance if building on that run last time. The one issue I have is the ground given he handles heavy so well. Noble Ben – Put in a superb performance to win this in 2011, but sadly he got injured after that and he just hasn’t been the same horse since. Saw him finish 2nd at Andoversford last time, but it didn’t exactly suggest he was about to win again and was a well beaten 10th in this last year. Realt Ag Leimt – Won a hunter chase at Huntingdon two years ago and shown decent pieces of form this season. Travelled well into the straight at Southwell last time, but stopped pretty quickly and has had bleeding issues in the past so may well have bled again. Wouldn’t rule out a good run, but hard to back him after the Southwell run. Sam Cavallaro – Had a run of P’s next to his name until he caused a surprise by finishing 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at Ludlow at a massive 125/1. The form of that race has worked out pretty well. The winner finished a superb 2nd at Aintree, the 4th won a selling hurdle at Fakenham, the 5th won a hunter chase at Exeter and the 6th was 2nd in a handicap chase at Uttoxeter. He himself has won since although it was only a three runner point. There didn’t look to be much of a fluke behind that run and the drop in trip should suit round here. Popaway – Won this race easily last year and followed up at Southwell. Not been as good this season though as the first of her two wins was at 1/7 and the other was a walkover. He other runs have been disappointing including when a well beaten 7th at Leicester last month. If she was back to last year’s form then she would have a big chance, but hard to fancy on this seasons efforts and this renewal looks a little stronger. Summary – I wouldn’t want to completely rule out Loch Ard or Popaway, but to me this race looks between Penmore Mill and Sam Cavallaro. It amazes me that they have never run Penmore Mill in this before as it looks the perfect race for him and he looked so good here last year until his stamina gave in. He rates the main selection although if Sam Cavallaro does repeat his Ludlow effort he will be a very dangerous rival and worth having a saver on. Tip Penmore Mill Alternative Sam Cavallaro 5.25 Legal Legend – Had my doubts about the jockey when I saw this horse win at Thorpe Lodge and he didn’t look great at Towcester either. He only won that day because Mr Mercurial idled on the run-in and I think the form will be reversed tonight. Mr Mercurial – Everyone seems to be calling him all the names under the sun and yes he is a hard ride, but he just idles in front and needs putting in front as late as possible. Towcester didn’t look good, but although he was caught right on the line at Leicester it was by the horse who went onto finish 2nd in the Foxhunter so you can certainly let him off that. The Stratford form is strong and he got too far back that day because the winner was very good from the front. He won easily at Southwell as he was entitled to do. The one slight concern I have is about him staying this trip, but it could be because he idles he looks like he doesn’t want this far. Big chance if Paddy can get it right again. Carrigkerry – Going to be outclassed in this. Come On You – A horse I like and he has done well in the south east this season, but a fair way from the level required to win this. Done A Runner – Bidding to give Alan Hill a hat-trick in this race and has been priced up on that fact. The Racing Post spotlight has said that he has improved since finishing 2nd at Towcester a year ago, but not sure what makes him think that. His two wins this season weren’t in great races and the race he unseated in was the same. Would be a bit of a surprise winner for me. Empire Builder – Has really improved this season having won three of his four starts. He also has proven stamina having won over 3m5f last time. Yet to run over Rules fences and I am not the biggest fan of the jockey, but he looks progressive and has a chance here. Fine Resolve – No idea why they are running him as he jumped terribly at Chepstow on Friday and is surely going to struggle over these fences. Clearly has an engine though because he ran well considering. Gonalston Cloud – Has the beaten of Legal Legend at these weights based on when he was 2nd to him at Thorpe Lodge in March. Not sure he will reverse the form despite the fact he has won twice since. Goodnight Vienna – Won his last two, but although he won easily last time the horse he beat was coming back from a long injury and the form looks suspect. Needs to improve for me. Impact Area – A really interesting contender. Made his debut at Larkhill which you won’t see in the form but he was impressive. He then won a Restricted and an Intermediate and again having watched the videos I like what I saw. Based on the latter win he also looks like a stayer. You can ignore the run last time at Larkhill as he was found to be lame and I expect they have kept him back to run in this. Now obviously he is inexperienced and jumping round Cheltenham on your fifth ever start is going to be tough, but he has a much better chance than his price suggests. Minella For Party – I thought he still looked a little green when he won on his seasonal debut at Barbury even though he has had a few runs under Rules. Benn running in Ladies Opens and won a couple on his last two starts which is at a higher level than most of these. Looks like he will stay this far and place claims. Minella Web – Surprised to him running in this given he travelled so well at Exeter and then stopped very quickly to finish a well beaten 9th. He has had a breathing op, but that run suggests he still has issues. Out Of Range – Got a fair bit to find in this company. Raffa – Had plenty of starts this season, but has been running well in decent Mens Open’s for most of them. Ran on Sunday but got carried out at the 2nd. That does suggest this was very much plan b, but he has been running to a decent level and has place claims. Remarkable Man – Won three this season and 2nd the other time, although not sure he has shown enough to win this especially as the time of his Restricted win was pretty slow. Repeat Business – Having watched the videos of two of his three runs this season I was really taken by him. He can take the odd guess at a fence, but on the whole jumps really well and he has some engine. I don’t think the extra trip will be an issue given how easily he was been winning his races and the times have been good as well. Has got a massive chance. Supreme Danehill – Well beaten at Exeter last time and plenty to find. Summary – I give half a dozen of them a chance so it is quite open. Mr Mercurial has the best form in the race and I find it hard to not see him going close, but he needs to be ridden to perfection and there is every chance he will find it harder to go past Repeat Business than he did Archie Boy. Repeat Business has really impressed me when watching his videos and I think he has what it takes to win this. There are a handful who can go well at bigger prices with Impact Area the main danger for me. He has only run four times and the last of which he pulled up lame. I think there is more to come from him as well. Tip – Repeat Business Alternative – Impact Area 5.55 Barrick’s Hill – 2nd in an Intermediate last time and got plenty to find with the best of these. Church Gallery – Probably still wouldn’t win if he started when the first race does. Credit Crunched – Described as having legs like glass but has ability. Won well enough last time on his seasonal reappearance, but it was a poor race and shouldn’t be good enough to win this. Following Dreams – Improved all of last season which ended with a cracking 3rd in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford. Just got up to beat Mr Mercurial at Leicester on his seasonal reappearance over a trip which was too short for him. Then went and put in career best effort by finishing 2nd to On The Fringe in the Foxhunter. Had bet365 Gold Cup 4th Paint The Clouds just behind him that day and needless to say that is the best form in the race. The slight issue is he refused at the first in a two runner point over Easter. Frustratingly I can’t find anywhere that says exactly what happened, but hopefully it was just a blip as he will be hard to beat otherwise. Harbour Court – Was shocked to see him running in this race as his trainer had said since he was 4th at Newbury last month that he would be running in the 4 miler on the card as he needs that sort of trip now. Based on his runs this season I would agree with him and I can’t understand why the trainer has changed his mind. Ran really poorly in this race last year as well. Midnight King – Was fairly useful in 2013, but missed last season. Won last time, but it wasn’t a strong contest and even his form in 2013 wouldn’t be good enough to win this. Tugboat – Done nothing but improve as the season has gone on. He pulled up in his first two runs of the season in points, but then ran well at Stratford when staying on in 4th over a trip too short for him. He then finished a good 2nd at Chepstow before winning at Ludlow and Stratford the last twice. Rockiteer has boosted the form of his Ludlow win and he got outpaced on quick ground at Stratford before just getting up on the run-in. This test should suit him better and any rain will certainly help his cause. Summary – Obviously Following Dreams has the best form in this race and as long as he doesn’t repeat what he did last time I think he will win. The only other possible danger is Tugboat and he is worth having a saver on as I think Harbour Court needs further and the others look outclassed. Tip – Following Dreams NB Alternative – Tugboat 6.30 Coombe Hill – Won the previous race on this card in 2012 and has been a fantastic servant over the years. Was a lucky winner at Wincanton last time although it did see him complete a hat-trick in the contest. Should run his race, but not sure he will be good enough to win. Gotoyourplay – Did win a handicap chase at Taunton last March odd a mark of 117 which would see him be a contender her. Getting better with every point start this season, finished 4L behind Doctor Kingsley two starts back when last of three and then won at Brampton Bryan last time. This is certainly stronger, but won’t mind which way the ground goes and could outrun his odds. Moroman – A very good horse who continues to be on the upgrade. Was 2nd in a hot race on his seasonal return (Consigleire won and Penmore Mill was 3rd) and has since landed a hat-trick. He had Doctor Kingsley behind him on the 2nd of those wins and then he won a dreadful hunter chase as he liked at Fakenham over Easter. This is certainly his toughest test under Rules, but I think he is up to it. There is however one concern and that is his jumping. He jumped out to his right at Fakenham (something he has done at left handed venues before) and David Kemp said after the race they may skip this meeting because of it. He might be good enough to get away with it, but I just wonder if it might be what stops him winning. Doctor Kingsley – Has a fantastic record at this meeting have won here for the last three years and bids for a hat-trick in this contest. It is fair to say he hasn’t been in such good form this season. As I have pointed out above he has finished behind Moroman already although he has seemed to get better as the season has gone on. He finally got his head in front again at Guilsborough last time beating Gunmoney (the horse he beat in this in 2013) who is a solid enough yardstick, so every chance he is coming to the boil at just the right time, but I do think this is a stronger race than the last two renewals. Temple Grandin – A horse I like a lot and he impressed me when winning on seasonal debut at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He then ran a cracker to finish a good 2nd to Pearlysteps in the Walrus at Haydock. They then sent him to the Foxhunter and I thought it might be a year to soon for him to show his best and so it proved as he never got involved. I am certain he is better than that and his trainer has done the right thing in giving him a bit of a break since the Festival. Brackloon High – Has had a good season having won a couple of points, the form of which is decent enough. He finished in front of Temple Grandin in the Foxhunter although he also didn’t get into the race. Was no match for Consigliere in a match at Kimble over Easter and given how close Moroman got to him that is a concern, otherwise he has claims. Hameldown Tor – Deserves to win a hunter chase as he has got some really strong place form in the last couple of years, including finishing a close 3rd to Doctor Kingsley in this last year. In good form winning his last three points including over 4m just 11 days ago. The problem is that I think he will have to have improved to win this and at the age 11 that is unlikely and a place is the best he can hope for. Princely Hero – Outclassed. Quinz – Joe Hill helped produce some great footage on this horse when being unseated in the Fox Hutners’ at Aintree last time when getting badly hampered for the 2nd time in the race. His point wins don’t add up too much although he ran as well as could be expected when 2nd to Paint The Clouds at Doncaster in February. Has a chance. Rosies Peacock – Has won 26 from 50 starts between the flags, but his hunter chase form has never been as good having only won once in a bad race at Ffos Las two years ago and can’t help but think he will struggle to win this. Summary – Really decent and interesting race this and you can give claims to about half the field. I certainly couldn’t put any one off backing Doctor Kingsley being such a course specialist and his last run at least showed a return to something like his best form. If this was the other way round I would really fancy Moroman, but his jumping is a worry and I can only have a saver on him because of it. I am going for Temple Grandin as I think he is much better than he showed in the Foxhunter and that run at Haydock was a really good effort. Tip – Temple Grandin Alternative – Moroman 7.05 Chosen Milan – Had a fantastic season last year including winning on this card and then going onto finish 2nd the Theatre Queen in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford. Probably needed the run when running in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton and then had a nice canter round to hack up in a bad race back there in February. Ran a superb race to finish 5th in the Foxhunter here and came down at the 7th in the Aintree version. As long as that hasn’t left a mark she should be pretty hard to beat. Executive Benefit – Won 9 times in points from just 14 starts although had the easiest task possible when wining a hunter chase at Wetherby last month. It was only a match she won last time although her two previous wins came in decent affairs. Was in front of Chosen Milan at Taunton where connections felt they got the tactics wrong and I agree as they made way too much use of her. Worth bearing in mind though that she had already had a run when winning at Barbury in December. She looks the most likely to take advantage if Chosen Milan disappoints. My Flora – Looked to have the world at her feet a few years ago and was well fancied to win the 2012 Foxhunter where she ran pretty well to finish 4th. After that season she went to Donald McCain’s and the Dan Skelton’s and although she did eventually win, she certainly proved to be a big disappointment. Not surprisingly connections sold her and although it was good to see her win will on her 2nd start she was disappointing again last time. She comes up against two progressive mares her and hard to see her beating them. Miss Gotaway – Progressed through the ranks this season winning three times in points. That form does leave her with plenty to find though with the top two and the suspicion is she would need the ground to turn soft to be seen at her best. Roseyroo – A real likeable horse who has done really well for her trainer, but not shown form good enough to win this. Would be more interested if she turned up for the mares’ race at Fontwell in a couple of weeks. Tandori – To be fair ran better than I thought she would at Exeter last time, but won’t be wining this. We Never Give Up – Actually gives up more often than not and no chance here. Summary – Looks a two horse race on paper and as long as Chosen Milan is over her Aintree fall she should reverse Taunton form with Executive Benefit, who should be the one to take advantage if she isn’t. Tip – Chosen Milan Alternative – Executive Benefit 7.40 Jim Job Jones – Not shown much in two hunter chases this season and having won off only 74 in October shows he has plenty to find. Pentiffic – Ran a cracker to finish 3rd in this last season and managed to win the same Warwick contest for the 2nd year running in March. Disappointing in two runs since and is a very hard ride. He has the hood on for the first time, which might help. Alskamatic – Decent horse who finished a very close 2nd to Sharp Suit in the Intermediate Final last year and he actually reversed the form last time out. Ran as well as could have been expected in the Foxhunter and he has won a point since. Must admit though doesn’t strike me as a horse who would need this far, but place claims if he does stay. Bradley Brook – Proved he stayed this far when winning a 4m Mixed Open at Upcott Cross earlier in the month. It wasn’t a strong race though and he was a bit disappointing at Chepstow the time before. Probably needs to improve to win this. Gale Force Oscar – Not been anywhere near in the same form he showed when winning at Chepstow year ago and I don’t expect the step-up in trip to bring any improvement. Major Malarkey – A proven stayer and I wrote after he was 5th at Haydock on his seasonal debut that this race would be perfect for him. That day he got outpaced before staying on and it was a promising return. He then went to Kelso where he looked a good thing and duly bolted up from Railway Dillon who ran well at Perth last week. He then went back handicapping when unseating at Kelso but was still going well. He then ran at Aintree where he not surprisingly got outpaced before staying on again to finish 4th. He has got a massive chance here. Special Portrait – Won this race in 2012 and then just denied by Charles Bruce in 2013. It was great to see him win again at Sedgefield just reversing the form (who was then disqualified). He ran well to be beaten a head by Beggar’s Velvet at Hexham last week. I hope he runs well, but this is stronger than either 2012 and 2013 and I don’t think he is as good as he used to be. Ace High – Was pretty useful under Rules and went off at 14/1 when last seen in the 2013 Welsh National when he pulled up. His pointing form suggests he isn’t near that level though as his only win was in a very poor race. Didn’t run too badly last time, but hard to fancy. Ben’s Folly - Pointing form is nothing special and looks a fair way from the form he used to show under Rules. Bubble Breeze – Second to That’s Rhythm and Catspan first two runs this season, but pulled up last time and shouldn’t be good enough. Charles Bruce – As mentioned above he won this two years ago and returned to form last time at Sedgefield with the return of Charlie Deutsch. That was his first run for over a year so entitled to come on for it and has place claims. Connies Cross – Interesting his trainer is running him in this. Was 2nd on his first start for here and then although he was given the victory next time he actually looked to finish 2nd after wondering around on the run-in. He was impressive last time though winning by 40L in a decent time. He does need to show a fair bit of improvement to win this and is unproven over anything like this trip. It is also his first start under Rules so at the single figure price he is he looks too short, but his trainer knows the time of day so him running a big race wouldn’t surprise. Findlay’s Find – Always struggled with his jumping under Rules and not been anywhere near as good as he has been in points and happy to take him on given he is such a hard ride. Midnight Haze – Had a good season last year under his young rider, but probably not quite as good this time around despite winning last time. She should enjoy a good spin round, but don’t expect her to be competitive. Reliable Richie – Shown little in three hunter chases and although was a close 2nd to Bradley Brook in that 4m race at Upcott Cross last time he shouldn’t be good enough. Tarquinius – Been a long time since he showed any form under Rules and his three runs in points have been really really bad. On that he should be 250/1 not 25/1. Summary – Major Malarkey really does seem to have a class edge over these and he looks a really decent bet. You can give place claims to a few, but Charles Bruce can go well in his bid to get his title back. Tip – Major Malarkey NAP Alternative – Charles Bruce e/w 8.15 Current Event – Finally they have stuck him a race he can win. Ignore the fact he won over 3m3f as it was a bad race (Foundry Square ran no sort of race in behind) and they went no gallop. He went off way too short a price here in the Foxhunter and never got involved. He never had a chance to get involved at Aintree as he was hampered and unseated early on. His point form isn’t anything to get that excited about although he did beat Alskamatic by 15L on both their first starts of the season. He clearly still retains plenty of ability and this is the right trip for him. Fort George – I actually backed him at Chaddesley Corbett 11 days ago and he ran well until not quite seeing out the 3m2f trip. His 4th in the Royal Military in February suggested he needed a little shorter and he was outclassed in the Foxhunter. Not without a chance here. Foundry Square – Has had a really frustrating season, but he has shown more since finishing 27L behind Current Event at Musselburgh. I think they ran him too soon at Ludlow after his Ascot run and based on his 2nd to Calgary Bay there he will be flying up the hill. It is just a case of if he has got himself too far back or not. Rockiteer – Likes Ludlow so has to be a bit of a worry if he will like Cheltenham. The only time he has run here was in the 2008 Champion Bumper where he beat one home. Jane Williams gets on really well with him though and the trip round here should be perfect for him. He wouldn’t want too much rain to fall, but if he handles Cheltenham he has a really good chance. Drom – The drop in trip and a great ride by Emma Todd saw him win at Musselburgh back in February and he has won a point since. Will make a bold bid from the front, but this race a fair bit stronger than the Musselburgh one. Tinerlyra – Ran ok in a couple of points this season, but his handicap form since suggests he has plenty to find. Archie Boy – Ran really well last time at Southwell even if he was flattered by his closeness to the winner, this much tougher though. Cottage Oak – Done well for connections, but firmly on the downgrade now and can’t be fancied. Gauvain – Top class chaser in his day and won the Peterborough Chase in 2011. Was on the downgrade since under Rules, but has done well for new connections in points winning three out of five. It does say first time visor on the race card but he has worn it in points this season. He beat Invisible Man (2nd in this last year) at Hereford two starts back although I think he must have been below par that day. He beat Khyber Kim last time although that one’s jockey isn’t great. This trip should be ideal for him, but I just wonder if he will be good enough to win this. Orang Outan – Didn’t run that badly behind two good horses last time, but hasn’t been great otherwise and his last win was off 95 in a handicap so plenty to find here. Shanks A Bunch – Saw him win a maiden point in December but miles to find on that let alone what he has done in two races since. Theophrastus – Pulled up at Kempton last week and no chance here. Summary – Foundry Square will probably hit the frame given the way he has been running this season. If Rockiteer handles the track then he is a big danger, but after being so dead against Current Event her in March I think now is the time to back him. Tip – Current Event Alternative - Rockiteer

[beaker1]

Re: Jump racing 29th April - Cheltenam hunter chase night excellent write up as per usual good luck