blank_frackis Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 I've got an accumulator that's waiting on one result in the Charlton-Fulham game tomorrow night (a draw). It's due to pay £968 if it comes in, but obviously it's worth hedging bets to guarantee getting something rather than going all out on a draw happening (which isn't a greatly likely result). The best odds I can see on oddschecker are 2.6 for a Charlton win and 3.0 for a Fulham win. I figure the most likely result is a Charlton win so I want to weight the stakes to ensure that pays out more than the other two results. What I've come up with so far is the following: 1. Take £768 to stake on the Charlton/Fulham wins, thereby guaranteeing a £200 win if the draw happens (£968 for the accumulator minus the £768 stake). 2. Put £339 on the Fulham win at 3.0, which would be £1,017 winnings, minus the £768 stake = £249 win overall 3. Put the remaining £429 on Charlton at 2.6, which would be £1,115 winnings, minus the £768 stake = £347 win overall Does that seem reasonable or have I miscalculated somewhere? I don't usually stake huge sums of money on bets so thought I should seek a second opinion before I blow it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristillus Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Re: Help with hedging bets on an accumulator I've got an accumulator that's waiting on one result in the Charlton-Fulham game tomorrow night (a draw). I figure the most likely result is a Charlton win... To be honest, a Charlton win is indeed the most likely result, but Charlton are one of those teams that can let you down. Over the season Charlton have managed to be beaten by teams that one would not bet on beating Charlton. For this game, Poisson states the following... Home Win------Draw-----Away Win --58%-----------22%-------19% Other Form factors give the following... Charlton----50% Fulham-----22% So to win, it suggests Fulham have to play in such a way that they overcome these recent and historical deficits, equally so to gain a Draw. It's not beyond possibility, but it does look unlikely. It all depends on which Charlton team turns up? The one that wants to win the game, or the one that can't be arsed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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