AFL Rd. 7.

[TazaD]

12-8' (+2.99) Adelaide +17.5 i) I don't think Melbourne's loss to Freo last week was the 'exception' people are saying. A win over Essendon is nothing, and 3 wins over Bulldogs, Geelong and Sydney all masked horrible defensive performances. (These teams kicked 30.57 b/w them!)...They have allowed 25+ shots at goal in every game since Rd. 2. ii) The Crows are the real thing. iii) After a slow start they are scoring very well, scoring 124, 120, 109 and 74, but against a very good defensive team in wet, slipery conditions. iv) The Crows defense has been very good. They have allowed the 3rd least shots at goal this season, and allow a score every 2.27 entries into the 50, which is the best. The Crows have won the last 3 meetings, and the last 2 meetings at the MCG, both as underdogs. I really think the Crows will win this game, but will take the points to be safe. Doggies +39.5 Massive over-reaction here!! Yoiu're only as good as your last game?..ah, no! So Brisbane are 'back' after a big win over Essendon? I'm not so convinced. The Doggies have had 47 more inside 50's and 28 more shots at goal, and allowed only 6 less goals. Of course Brown back helps them no end, but he won't be playing on Ty Zantuck this week! The Bulldogs lost in Brisbane by 68 points last year, but it was 2nd v. 14th and a total mismatch. The Lion's forward line had Lynch, Brown, Bradshaw and Pike all firing, and the Bulldogs were without Harris. Lynch gone, Pike struggling, Bradshaw ?, but struggling anyway. Also the loss of Darcy won't hurt as much in this game, as Hawthorn showed it was certainly possible (easier even!) to kick a big score with a small forward line. I honestly don't think the Bullies are without a show here. Love getting nearly 7 goals!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 7. Essendon+21.5 Just find it impossible for Sydney to give this many points. They average 77 points a game! As badly as Essendon have been traveling, they have 23 more inside 50's than the Swans, are slightly better at the clearances and their backline has been tighter. The Bombers lost by 20 points in the same meeting last year, but had 5 more inside 50's and 5 more shots, but kicked 12.18. Hird and Solomon are out, but Bradley is in and McPhee (he played last year but was injured very early)...But more importantly Ball, Dolyle, Williams out for Sydney, and Hall in nowhere near the form he was last year. Again, most people are just remembering last week's results, but Sydney don't have a Jonathon Brown in their line-up!