The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm

[Aidymac]

:ok

[beaker1]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm 2015 RSA Chase Trends The last 51 winners all ran in the same calendar year The last 27 winners finished in the first 3 last time out The last 15 winners had run at least 3 times over fences 19 of the last 22 winners were novice hurdling the previous season 4 of the last 6 winners ran well in the Dr P J Moriarty Chase The last 12 winners finished placed at worst in a Grade 1 or 2 chase 13 of the last 15 runnings were won by a 7 year-old Look to prominently ridden horses All 19 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase to run have been beaten No winner aged 9+ since 1992 Only 3 winners younger than 7 since 1978 Only 2 of the last 22 winners were not traditionally bred Just 1 ex-flat horse has placed since 1994

[cpo]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm Pretty quiet in the Cheltenham forum! This looks like an absolutely cracking race but its difficult to know which horses will go for this. I do like the Willie Mullins pair in this but I am leaning towards The Young Master. I love horses with his sort of profile and who knows how good he can actually be over fences. He demolished a decent field at Wincanton before getting thrown out for being ineligible to race and then won well enough last time out at Ascot in a stronger field. The form of the race for me is good with Le Reve winning comfortably next time out and taking a line through Houblon Des Obeaux's form with Many Clouds. He does have to find even more improvement to win this race but I don't think that is out of the question. He is young and progressive horse and he will be carrying my cash at the festival.

[bennyblue]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm Hoping coneygree will not be running here, however if he does he really should be head and shoulders above the "Novices" those two years out have helped him greatly

[Binchy]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm Don Poli confirmed for this. Glad as have him in one of my multiples.

[arsenalfh]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm Very Wood also confirmed for this. Festival winner who needs a stiff track on a sound surface. Won nicely at Navan last time staying up the hill and he looks a cracking each way bet. I've taken the 20/1 available on Bet365, PP have already shortened him to 14/1 and I would be surprised if he wasn't shorter on the day.

[Aidymac]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm Cheltenham 2:05 - Rsa Chase(Grade 1) (1) 3m 110yds Don Poli will be all the rage for the RSA, and rightly so, but the Willie Mullins outsider ADRIANA DES MOTTES could be a bit of each-way value at 33/1 with Boylesports. She was brought down in the Triumph last season when going off a 20/1 shot and certainly is very hit or miss, but she beat some very decent horses at Fairyhouse back in November. She had Rule The World, Thunder And Roses, Noble Emperor and The Job Is Right behind, good staying horses that went on to win good races since. If she could repeat that run, I think she could well nick a place in the RSA, as now with Coneygree taken out, it does seem to lack a touch of class once you take out Don Poli and Kings Palace. She will also receive 5 pounds from every runner in the field, and with Ruby Walsh in the saddle, there is no better man in the business so I will place a small each-way on her. >>>>> Adriana Des Mottes - 1 Point each-way @ 33/1 Boylesports https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm 2.05 Cheltenham: RSA Chase (3m110y) Three recent winners of the RSA Chase have gone on to win the Gold Cup the following year but last years hero O’Faolains Boy was probably below that class. Hopefully we can see another cracking race this year and some exciting prospects for the future. The last favourite to win was Cooldine in 2009 and we have had winners at 25/1, 16/1, 14/1, and 12/1 in the last 10 years. Six of the best; Don Poli – Trained by that man Willie Mullins Don Poli has won both of his races over fences to date. He was very smart as a hurdler and looks even better over the bigger obstacles. Last time out he won at Leopardstown in the Topaz Chase when beating Apache Stronghold by 3 lengths. He has lots more improvement in him and could turn into a top quality-staying chaser for next year and head towards the Gold Cup. Kings Palace – Unbeaten chaser trained by David Pipe and came to the Festival last year with a similar profile when well fancied for the Albert Bartlett. Things didn’t work out that day and now attempts to make amends over fences. Has won twice here at Cheltenham and has yet to be extended but wont get things all his own way here. The Young Master – Runs here instead of the 4m Chase and one of the reasons for that was that Barry Geraghty could take the ride. They teamed up at Wincanton and won the Badger Ales Trophy only to be disqualified and then won at Ascot to make amends. He’s gone up 20 lbs in the ratings this season and hasn’t stopped improving yet. This is a different task but this horse has won 9 of his last 11 races over hurdles and fences so don’t write him off too quickly. Southfields Theatre – Paul Nicholls saddles this one and he has always thought a lot of him. He was second in the Pertemps Final last season and has now won three out of four chases. His only defeat came at Newbury when he was second to the useful Carraig Mor so that was no disgrace but will face stiffer opposition here so needs to find some improvement. If In Doubt – AP McCoy rides this one for boss JP McManus and a rare runner from the Philip Hobbs yard. Won at Doncaster last time out in a Listed contest to earn his place in this line up. Needs to find more improvement but is on the upgrade. Adriana Des Mottes – A Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh / Rich Ricci horse going off at 25/1! Well this proves that it does happen. Only a 5yo and one for the future, but obviously not one of the yards leading lights. Won a grade 1 over hurdles last season so not a total hopeless case. Verdict: Not the strongest RSA I have ever seen and should concern the top 4 in the market really. Don Poli has chosen this race ahead of other engagements when he heard Coneygree was going for the Gold Cup and I prefer The Young Master here for the Festival winning yard of Neil Mulholland and jockey Barry Geraghty. Improving hand over fist and could have found a good opportunity here. 2pts The Young Master 11/2 Paddy Power

[Smarty72]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm One Uk and one Irish Horse The Young Master - Win @ 11\2 PP Very progressive and yet to be beaten this season. Don Poli - Win @ 2\1 Bet365 Grade 1 Novice chase winner last time. Winner last year at the festival in the conditional jockey's Handicap chase.

[cpo]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm The Young Master stands between me and a 5 fig payout today ??

[cpo]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm Wow I have just read that no ex flat horse has even placed in this race since 1994

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm

RSA

I am not really that keen on the 3 horses at the top of my ratings in If In Doubt who cant jump, Kings Palace who just has a question mark about him in this class of race especially where his form hasnt worked out the greatest and Southfield Theatre who again isnt the greatest of jumpers and again doesnt have the strongest form. The latter will improve for good ground but that's not enough to interest me. I have actually backed the short price favourite in Don Poli for this one. He jumps, travels, stays well, he has rock solid form and he also has course form. I literally cant find anything to dislike about him other than his price but given that we know the yard seem to be in decent knick (that might be an understatement :)) then I cant pick any holes in him. I will have another horse against the field in the rapidly improving The Young Master. He is another whose form is rock solid, he has course form, he jumps well enough, travels nicely and we also know his trainer is in decent knick. I think he might have been priced up shorter with a more high profile trainer as well.

Don Poli 2/1

>William Hill

- 1 point - MB2 The Young Master 11/2

>Paddy Power

- 1 point

[scotty657]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm There's some classy looking, progressive animals going toe-to-toe here and at the prices I'm going to side with AP McCoy's mount IF IN DOUBT. The Hobbs trained runner scored nicely in a listed Doncaster event when last seen following up a cosy Catterick success. He's open to as much progress as any other here and is definite value at 12/1. WOUNDED WARRIOR relished the step up to 3m last time when scoring with ease at Naas and is fair each-way value at 13/1 as well. Looks a type which can come on again for the test.

[beaker1]

Re: The RSA Steeple Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 2:05pm RSA Chase There is every chance that at least one strong negative trend will be overcome here as the leading fancies don’t have the right profile but are strong on pure form grounds. Take the Willie Mullins-trained Don Poli for example whose victory over Apache Stronghold in the Grade 1 Topaz Chase was franked when the runner-up then won the Grade 1 Flogas Chase but he has not run since Christmas unlike the last 51 years, he has only run twice over fences whereas the last 15 winners had run three times or more and just two six-year-old have won since 1978. By the same token, the Neil Mulholland-trained The Young Master is also a six-year-old and has also not run this side of Christmas having won a handicap at Ascot in December on his last start. Mullins is the man for the RSA though with three winners, two seconds and four others bang in contention until falling late on. The stat that Kings Palace has to overcome is that we have to go back 13 years to find the last winner to have started their career over fences over the RSA trip of around three miles. In his favour is that he contested (though ran below expectations) in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last season like 4 of the last 5 RSA winners (may have all been all 5 if Boston Bob didn’t fall at the final fence when leading). He is also a seven-year-old as were the last eight winners. The only other seven-year-old likely to start at a single-figure price is last season’s Pertemps Final runner-up, Southfield Theatre, but he spent more than one season over hurdles unlike 19 of the previous 22 RSA winners. He does represent Paul Nicholls though who has bagged two RSA Chases. What a mess and something has to give. At least Coneygree isn’t running or he would have a great chance of being a first ever Kauto Star Novices’ Chase winner to win the RSA. He waits for the Gold Cup in a bold move. Other contenders not being sent over fences after one season of hurdling are the Sky Bet Chase winner, If In Doubt, who will need to jump a lot better than he did on the first circuit at Doncaster and The Young Master so that’s a third big negative stat he has to overcome and a fourth is that he started life on the Flat and no ex-Flat horse has placed for 20 years. The last 12 winners had finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase which is something that only the Gigginstown-owned pair of Don Poli and Wounded Warrior have achieved. The NH Chase was the plan for Wounded Warrior until 24 hours ago and this move to the RSA looks like being because Noel Meade now has the favourite for the four-miler in the NH Chase and owner/trainer wanted to keep them apart. If last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle third Apache Jack can win, he will be first horse to do so in the last 29 years having failed to finish in the first three last time out. I cannot recall a maiden over fences winning the RSA in my time following racing either. Of those, 25 finished first or second which is against Adriana Des Mottes who was third in the Flogas Chase, but that has been the best guide featuring four of the last six winners. She is only five and receives just a 2lb age allowance (but a 7lb mares’ allowance on top) whereas Star De Mohaison was getting 10lb when he won at the same age. Short List Wounded Warrior The Ould Lad (Kings Palace) Conclusion None of the leading fancies fit the bill ideally. WOUNDED WARRIOR does not to fail any of the negative statistics so he makes the short list and many a Gigginstown second string has beaten its shorter-priced rival in Ireland this season. THE OULD LAD also passes all the negative trends so he could be the real each-way value of the race for the Tom George yard who supplied the 25/1 runner-up in the Arkle. He has it to find on pure form grounds but big-priced horses placing in the RSA with a stamina profile are not unfamiliar. KINGS PALACE only fails on not starting his chasing career over a shorter trip and he contested the Albert Bartlett last season which has supplied four of the last five winners so he gets the final slot. Don Poli and The Young Master have three and four negative stats respectively overcome.