Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm

[Aidymac]

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[beaker1]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm 2015 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Trends 31 of the last 31 winners won or finished second last time out 27 of the last 29 winners started in the first 5 in the betting 15 of the last 17 winners had contested a pattern race over hurdles 16 of the last 18 win and placed horses started in the first 4 in the betting 5 of the last 9 winners were won by the Irish 6 of the last 16 winners recorded a top 6 finish in a Grade 1 bumper last spring 14 of the last 16 winners were NH bred Only 1 win aged over 6 since 1974 No winning 4 year-olds since 1991 All 14 Challow Hurdle winners to run have been beaten

[Aidymac]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm Cheltenham 1:30 - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle(Baring Bingham) (Grade 1) (1) 2m5f I was very disappointed in WARRANTOR in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time out, a well beaten 7th behind Tea For Two when going off a 9/2 joint favourite. I know he is much better than that, and at 50/1 with SkyBet I am willing to part with a small each-way investment with my hard earned. I was really impressed with the way he battled in the closing stages at Chepstow in November, which would suggest he should love the Cheltenham stiff hill. The 2nd that day, Arzal, went on to bolt up in a Kempton Novice Hurdle soon after, and the 3rd, Polamco, went on to win two races since. Warrantor went on to Market Rasen after his Chepstow success and bolted up by 6 lengths, beating Racing Europe who went on to win next time out. I don't know what went wrong with the horse in the Lanzarote, but I am willing to give him another chance at the prices, I genuinely think he has a solid each-way squeak in a relatively small field. >>>>> Warrantor - 1 Point each-way @ 50/1 Sky Bet https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm 1.30 Cheltenham: Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle (2m5f) We have had some very classy winners of the Neptune down the years and more recently we have seen Faugheen, The New One and Simonsig successful suggesting it takes a well above average individual to win this contest. We have only seen one shock result in a dozen years and that was a 20/1 shot back in 2007 so don’t stray too far from the front of the market. Six of the best; Nichols Canyon – The word from the Mullins camp is that Nichols Canyon is the best hope to follow up Faugheens success of last year. Owned by the Wylie’s he was Group class on the flat and won his first two hurdle races without much fuss. He unseated Ruby Walsh next time out but made amends by taking the Deloitte ahead of his much better fancied stable mate. That’s rock solid form and should go close here. Windsor Park – Second in the Deloitte Hurdle behind Nichols Canyon last time out puts Windsor Park in with every chance here for trainer Dermot Weld. He had disappointed before that at Leopardstown when only 4^th of seven and made errors. Travels well in his races but needs to jump much better. Parlour Games – John Ferguson’s 7yo won the Neptune trial here in November beating Blaklion comfortably and then followed up at Newbury in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle. That is about the best English form out there at present and has only been out of the first two on one occasion. He will need decent ground to show his best but jumps and travels easily in his races. Course and distance winner, which is a big plus and must have every chance. Outlander – Was made favourite for the Punchestown bumper last year and was a fair 6^th. Started off his hurdles career with a win at Fairyhouse and then was surprisingly beaten at Limerick by Martello Tower. Gained his revenge last time out at Leopardstown to earn his place here. Trained by Willie Mullins for the Gigginstown House Stud. Ordo Ab Chao – Trained by Alan King and won two average novice races at Huntingdon before being upped in class at Sandown. He was well beaten that day by Vyta Du Roc but King persevered with him and he won next time out at Cheltenham beating the useful Value At Risk in soft ground. Could be a lively outsider in an open looking contest. Beast Of Burden – Won his last two starts over hurdles and his only defeat was on his debut at Newbury in December when very well backed. Last time beat Mendip Express with ease over three miles and had the option of going for the Albert Batlett or the Neptune. Still improving and trainer Rebecca Curtis holds this one in high regard. Verdict: It’s a wide open Neptune this year and difficult to choose between the Irish contingent especially the pair from the Mullins camp. Ruby has picked Nichols Canyon although Gigginstown would have had Bryan Cooper anyway? I like Beast Of Burden at the prices, he will be better over further in time but the yard had a winner on day one and this one is good value Beast Of Burden EW 14/1 Ladbrokes

[Smarty72]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm Same Approach As yesterday 1 UK and 1 Irish horse Vyta Du Roc - Win @ 7\1 Bet365 Close to Parlour Games LTO and could just get the better this time. Nichols Canyon - Win @ 4\1 Bet365 Impressive winner of the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown and now going for 3rd Grade 1 novice hurdle win. Ruby to start the day the same as Tuesday!

[scotty657]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm Some promising types here but for me PARLOUR GAMES is the way to go and this one can get McCoy his first win of the festival. The John Ferguson gelding scored nicely here in a G2 novice in November before piping Vyta Du Roc at Newbury. The course form could prove big here and the 6/1 on offer looks good to me.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm

All season I have been saying that if Ferguson is to win one race then it will be this one with Parlour Games but looking at it again I think he has been sprinting clear of stayers so I am not as convinced as I was and in fact I have sided against him. Nichols Canyon will be my first bet. I liked his introduction to hurdling. It wasnt flashy, it wasnt spectacular but it did show that he can really wing a hurdle when he wants. Ultimately that was his undoing on his next start, getting a little too low and shipping his rider but his performance the last day really reminded me of Vautour in the way he pinged every hurdle and powered away from the field. Given how well he stayed on the flat the trip wont be a problem and he will relish the sound surface. The other horse I like with a touch of class is Outlander from the same stable. His form looks pretty solid to start with and the way he also came through and powered clear of his rivals was visually impressive. He was just done for stamina the time before that over 24f so a bit like Faugheen last year we know that he gets further and will power up the hill. I was quite sweet on Windsor Park after his last run where he stayed on late but he was the same against Outlander the time before over this trip. I dont think he really has enough of an excuse to think he can turn the form around with both of the other two. Ordo Ab Chao and Vyta Du Roc are the best English hopes but I think the former would be prefer more cut and the latter is more of a grinder who will stay on and may be an EW chance but I feel he will ultimately find a couple that little bit classier.

Nichols Canyon 4/1 Paddy Power - 1 point Outlander 4/1 William Hill - 1 point - MB2

[luke262]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm Skybet have Nichols Canyon at 7/2 but are offering money back as a free bet (upto £25)if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, seems like a safe choice to me, almost like a free eachway bet.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm 1.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Vyta Du Roc @ 7/1 (Bet365) Competitive race this but at least with Nicky Henderson's runner you've got a horse who stays this trip well. A slight concern would be how he can get outpaced in races before staying on but hopefully they'll go a nice solid gallop and he can come home well. Battled with Parlour Games all the way to the line last time and the bigger field can suit here. Has good form in the book and I don't see why he won't enjoy the better ground.

[beaker1]

Re: Neptune Novices' Hurdle > Wednesday March 11th @ 1:30pm Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Ten head to post with all the leading fancies standing their ground. Twelve of the last 17 winners had won a pattern race over hurdles and half the field have managed that. The quintet that have not are Anteros who was a well beaten second in a weak Grade 2 here in December, Beast Of Burden who has impressed at Ffos Las and Bangor on his last two starts, Snow Falcon who won a maiden hurdle at Navan last time out, Warrantor who was disappointing on his last start when second off joint-favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle and Windsor Park who was second to Nichols Canyon in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle. Just two of the last 29 winners started outside the first five in the betting and it is likely only Windsor Park of those mentioned above will start in one of those coveted positions. Anteros and Warrantor finished out of the first two last time out which is a big negative with only one of the last 31 Neptune winners doing likewise. With regards to the Deloitte, that has been the best Irish guide to the novice hurdles at the Festival and Danoli and Istrabraq both won it en route to winning the Neptune which is a positive for Nichols Canyon who also won the Grade 1 Royal Bond. However, Windsor Park’s supporters should not give up hope as Hardy Eustace won this race after he was second in the Deloitte and he shapes like the step back up in trip will be his favour. Both Nichols Canyon and Windsor Park are classy horses from the Flat, as is Parlour Games, and although NH-breds have much the best record in the Neptune, Istabraq, Galileo and No Refuge all came from the Flat and they are usually heavily outnumbered. With regards to Parlour Games, who won the Melrose Handicap at the Ebor Meeting, he won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury and is the leading British hope but all 14 winners of that race to run here have been beaten though six were placed. That said, most Challow winners on heavy ground get found out on a faster surface here but Parlour Games should relish this faster ground given his Flat profile. A better trial has been the Classic Novices’ Hurdle won by Ordo Ab Chao though, surprisingly, it is placed horses in that race that have gone on to win the Neptune. Four of the last five started their career in an Irish point-to-point so Ordo Ab Chao picks up another tick there (though he fell on both occasions) as did Outlander who was 0-3 in that sphere. Outlander gives Willie Mullins a second major player in addition to Nichols Canyon having won a very good Grade 2 race last time out at Leopardstown that has been a fair Albert Bartlett guide but this shorter distance looks his trip. Not only was Faugheen giving the Irish their seventeenth win since 1971 last season but, more pertinently, their fifth success in the last nine years and he also provided Willie Mullins with this third Neptune victory. A point worth taking on board with regards the non-Mullins Irish challenge is that winning Leopardstown form is a pre-requisite as their ten winners between 1975-2006 had all won at Ireland’s premier jumping course as did their most recent non-Mullins winner, First Lieutenant. Simonsig ended Nicky Henderson’s dreadful record in this race three years ago and Seven Barrows are represented this season by the Sandown Grade 2 winner and Challow Hurdle runner-up, Vyta Du Roc. The original plan was the Albert Bartlett but the stable already have two others for that and nothing for the Neptune after Kilcrea Vale was scratched so is he running here to spread their team? Short List Outlander Ordo Ab Chao Nichols Canyon Conclusion The shortlist picks itself with the top five in the betting dominating down the years and, of those, Windsor Park has not won a pattern race over hurdles and the record of the Challow winner is poor so Parlour Games also misses out. OUTLANDER and NICHOLS CANYON both represent Willie Mullins who has an excellent Neptune record and both won high-quality pattern races at Leopardstown last time so it is hard to choose between them. As Outlander is NH-bred and a bigger price he would be a marginal preference with this faster ground also expect to suit him whereas Nichols Canyon’s actions suggests he might prefer it softer. ORDO AB CHAO won Britain’s best guide to the Festival novice hurdles and came from the pointing field so he rates the best each-way value in the race.