Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm

[Aidymac]

:ok

[beaker1]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm 2015 Rewards For Racing Novices Chase Trends 9 of the 10 winners won or finished second last time out 8 of the 10 winners were beaten on their first 2 chase starts 8 of the 10 winners started in the first 5 in the betting 6 of the 10 winners were handicap chase debutants 2 of the last 4 winners carried top weight since the race was restricted to horses rated 0-140 A horse wearing first-time headgear has placed at big prices in 5 of the last 6 runnings Only 1 of the 10 horses carrying a penalty has managed to place

[Aidymac]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm Cheltenham 5:15 - Chaps Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase(Listed) (1) 2m4f 110yds GENEROUS RANSOM is the horse to side with in the Day 1 finale @ 7/1 with Bet Victor who are offering 5 Places on the tough handicap. The 7 year old got the better of Astigos over course and distance back in January to cement his place in the field. He is now up 8 pounds for that success, but the ground was soft that day and the trainer is adamant he will be seen to much better effect on slightly better ground. I think he was value for more than the distance he won by last time out, as he idled when he hit the front and Jacob did a great job to keep him steady in the closing stages. He ticks a lot of boxes on the trends too, and Nick Gifford sounded very bullish when interviewed about the horse recently so he has solid each-way claims. >>>>> Generous Ransom - 2 Points each-way @ 7/1 Bet Victor (5 Places) https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm ...5.15 Cheltenham: Chaps Restaurant Barbados Novices’ Handicap Chase (2m4f110y) The final race on day one is the old Jewson/Centenary Novices handicap over two and a half miles. Present View won it last year and came into the race with very good handicap form here at the track so any runners with that profile are worth looking out for. Six of the best; Generous Ransom – Needed to win last time here to go up in the weights to get a run and duly beat Astigos a neck and went up 8lbs. Had won at Sandown in December as well and is proving to be a much better chaser than a hurdler. Had cheek-pieces on for the first time on his latest outing, which seemed to work and now needs another step forward to win this. Thomas Crapper – Robin Dickin trains this one and he has always thought a lot of him since his novice hurdling days. A very consistent horse yet to win over fences but has been in the first four on all of his five starts. Has gone well at Cheltenham in the past and is not too badly handicapped on his best form. Knock House – Mick Channon trains Knock House and he won on his fencing debut at Fakenham without to much fuss by 18 lengths. He was then sent to do battle over three miles against Kings Palace and couldn’t cope with either the trip or the opposition. Back to 2m4f last time at Kempton and ran much better when second to Stella Notion. Rated 137 which is fair enough and not without a chance. Keltus - 4^th in last years Fred Winter off a mark of 128 and now has reached 135 over fences after three starts. Ran poorly at Ascot but did well on his other two runs including last time at Newbury when second to Royal Regatta. Trainer Paul Nicholls reckons this horse is capable of much better could well run a decent race at a nice price. Little Jon – Not had the best of fortunes over fences so far but that may well have helped his handicap mark and could be a few pounds well in on 138. He kicked off by beating Solar Impulse and then was a fair third to Dunraven Storm in the Arkle trial. Next time out he ran through the wings when in the lead and after that came back here and fell, again when leading. On his last run he did complete at least and finished 4^th in a competitive handicap suggesting that this company would be well within his capability if things went right. Irish Cavalier – Rebecca Curtis trained 6yo and has been running well all season. She has booked Paul Townend to ride this one and they have teamed up well this season. Only had three races over fences and been placed in all of them and ran well here last time behind Generous Ransom only beaten just over two lengths. He is weighted to reverse that form now and looks a fair sort. Verdict: Paul Nicholls thinks Keltus has a live chance from the bottom of the handicap and many have a squeak in a very competitive handicap. Only 6lbs from top to bottom in this race and an each way shout is given to Irish Cavalier who has the beating of the favourite on these terms and I like the booking of Paul Townend. Irish Cavalier 1pt EW 14/1 Stan James

[beaker1]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm CHAPS Barbados Restaurant Novices’ Handicap Chase The race conditions make this a tough handicap to target in advance as any horse allotted a handicap mark of over 140 is ineligible to run and, remarkably, only 6lb covers all 20 runners this year so weight-based arguments really don’t come into it though I should mention two the last three winners carried top weight and Killala Quay holds that distinction this time despite being a maiden over fences but so was the 2008 winner and a maiden over fences has been placed for each of the last five years. Thomas Crapper has also yet to win over fences but loves this course and was second in the Martin Pipe last March only behind Don Poli no less and he runs off the same handicap mark as 12 months ago over hurdles. Monkey Kingdom (wears a first-time tongue tie) and the bottom weight, Keltus, are also maidens over fences. The latter is interesting having placed in last year’s Fred Winter and one of his higher weighted stablemates for the same owner that sponsors this race came out so he just crept into the bottom of the handicap. Although it is paramount not to be on a horse that has shown the Handicapper too much of its hand, the problem trainers face is that their horse must have shown a sufficiently high level of form to get into the race in the first place. Five of the last six winners won last time out and qualifiers this year are Leap Dearg who has won his last three starts in Ireland (Drumnea is the other Irish hope and they are a slightly disappointing 1-28), Horizontal Speed who broke his debut over fences at the fourth time of asking, Generous Ransom who won what is traditionally a strong novices’ handicap chase on Festival Trials Day that featured the 1-2 in this race two years ago (Irish Cavalier finished a close-up third and Stellar Notion was a disappointing seventh as favourite) and Gores Island who would become the oldest winner at the age of nine. In ten runnings to date, the winner has come from the first five in the betting on eight occasions. The top three positions are currently held by Generous Ransom, Thomas Crapper and Keltus and it’s a bun fight for the two other spots. Nicky Henderson has trained a winner and three seconds and he runs Golden Hoof and Cocktails At Dawn who both need decent ground according to their trainer. J P McManus likes to have a contender or two mapped out for this handicap from an early stage having had a winner and two second and he owns Bold Henry who won over 2m here at the November Meeting. Short List Generous Ransom Killala Quay (Thomas Crapper) Horizontal Speed Conclusion After GENEROUS RANSOM won the equivalent race to this on Festival Trials Day his trainer commented he would be even better on faster ground and he appeals most of the four last-time-out winners. That race threw up the 1-2 here two years ago and Irish Cavalier wasn’t beaten far so is also respected. Stellar Notion made too many mistakes as favourite but previously had Generous Ransom behind when winning at Kempton. Two of the last three top weights have won and KILLALA QUAY was fourth in last season’s Neptune only beaten 6l by Faugheen. Maidens over fences have notched a winner and five place positions recently so he could have the class to overcome that. THOMAS CRAPPER loves Cheltenham. That’s his big advantage and only Don Poli beat him in last season’s 24-runner Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. He was also a dual winner at Cheltenham over hurdles last season. He ran off 134 when second at last season’s Festival and has the same mark for this novice handicap chase after failing to win in five starts over fences but the first three of those were over an inadequate 2m when he ran well behind three Arkle hopes in Court Minstrel (beaten 3l at Cheltenham), Vibrato Valtat (beaten 1l at Warwick) and Three Kingdoms (beaten by 3l at Leicester). He didn’t finish in the first two places last time out but he was taking on a better class of horse in the Tingle Creek fifth and Josses Hill. He has a big each-way chance on his course profile. HORIZONTAL SPEED came good last time out after a slow start to his chasing career not unlike other winners and Hobbs won this race with a horse with a fairly similar profile in Copper Bleu.

[Smarty72]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm One from Uk and one from Ireland Knock House - Win @ 16\1 Betfair SB Totally outclassed in the Neptune at last years festival but already looks a much better chaser than hurdler. Great chance and form looks decent at this distance. Leap Dearg - Win @ 20\1 PP Won 3 from 3 over fences this year (all on soft over 2m) but stepping up in trip for this race. Has been finishing races as if he will improve for extra distance and better ground.

[Binchy]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm I really strongly fancy Horizontal Speed for this race based on the trends it is way clear. Philip Hobbs has done really well with chasers this year. A few key trends : 10 of 10 ran in last 60 days (take out Leap Dearg, Gorsky Island, Golden Hoof, Knock House, Rum and Butter, Monkey Kingdom, Keltus) 10 of 10 posted an RPR of 133+ in last two complete chase starts (take out Vivaccio)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm I am not being particularly imaginative with my selections in this race in that I am going for the current 1st and 2nd favourite but I cant help but like both of their form. Thomas Crapper was narrowly touched off last year in a hurdle handicap and he can go one better now. He might not have won so far over fences but he has been in some good contests against some really smart horses and this makes his mark more than workable. We know he enjoys coming up the hill and he should go very close. Generous Ransom also doesnt need much explaining. He may have been beaten at Kempton behind Stellar Notion and Knock House (who has been well tipped today) but Cheltenham is more his track and he showed that on his next start bounding clear of a good field before getting lonely up the hill. That run underestimates him IMO and he is more than capable of winning another good handicap, at one of his favoured venues. Thomas Crapper 8/1 Boylesports - 1 point Generous Ransom 10/1 Paddy Power - 1 point

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm 5.15 Cheltenham - 2pts win Thomas Crapper @ 15/2 (BetVictor) It's well documented how much this fella likes Cheltenham and his novice chase runs have set him up nicely for this. Hasn't faced perfect conditions really which means his mark has stayed relatively low and ready for a tilt at this. Has either run over an insufficient two miles in small fields or over the more appropriate 2m4f against top opposition so hasn't been winning races. However, gets in here at the bottom of the weights with ideal conditions and now back at Cheltenham should go very well.

[scotty657]

Re: Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase > Tuesday March 10th @ 5:15pm Very open race this and there's two at the prices I like. DROMNEA I marked up a good bit shorter. The Mouse Morris trained gelding scored a couple of good wins at Limerick and Fairyhouse before staying on at Navan and comes here open to improvement in a handicap. The trainer knows all about Cheltenham and this one is too big at 50/1. IRISH CAVALIER goes with the first time cheek-pieces for Rebecca Curtis and was a good 3rd here in January. He's only up 2lb for that and can improve for the headgear. 14/1 is a fair enough price in my book.