Flat Racing - Sunday 11th January 2015

[robertob]

12.50 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 10f - Rebellious Guest: Fair third lto at Lingfield, on realistic mark without being overly well handicapped. Won over 10f once but trip probably not his optimum. Big weight to shoulder. First time headgear - Spes Nostra: Bit unlucky lto at Wolverhampton when short of room at crucial stage, beaten in final strides penultimate start. High enough in the mark but likely pace angle in the race. - Docs Legacy: Impressive winner when last seen at Wolverhampton in November. Thriving on the All-Weather. Career highest required today. - Swing Alone: Didn’t take to fibresand lto and outstayed at Lingfield over 12f. Won well over preferred 10f at Lingfield in December. Consistent, optimum trip today and on fair mark. - Tryster: Very promising last summer but green and badly hanging when last seen at Newmarket after travelling strongly. Absence since a worry. Should take to AW on pedigree. - Gaelic Silver: On a four-timer, in spending form, optimum trip today but much more required as well a career highest. - Tatting: Looks very much up against it and didn’t seem to stay 10f in the past. Verdict: Godolphin's lightly raced Tryster proves to be a popular choice in the betting and it is easy to see why. He could easily the one with the most improvement and talent in this field. On the three occasions he appeared racing last summer, he showed potential. A good debut, followed by an impressive maiden success, while on Handicap debut he travelled like the winner until suddenly hanging his chances literally away. Considering that he was off for half a year, though, one has to be cautious and for that reason I'm happy to oppose him for a very short price. Rebellious Guest appears to me to be still too high in the weights, in order for him to win this competitive race. While his mark comes down, he has still to shoulder a huge top weight today and that may see him struggle. Gaelic Silver has been in tremendous form lately, question mark is if he can improve again to be competitive in a strong race as this is? His price tag is too short for me to give him the benefit of the doubt. Docs Legacy looks the rock solid choice in contrast. He won so well when last seen, that he could well be able to defy a 5lb rise in the mark. He is a fair price. Two horses are potentially overpriced here in my mind: Spes Nostra is the first one. He loves the All-Weather and was massively progressive on this surface over the years. One can forgive him his latest run, where he found himself short of room at a crucial stage, while in his penultimate start he made all in a very competitive race and just got beaten in the dying strides. He is the pace angle in this race. Says he is likely to be the only one who wants to go forward and that may give him an edge if the field allows him a soft lead. Spes Nostra has yet to win off a mark as high as the current one, but I give him the benefit of the doubt to prove today that he is up to this rating off 90. The other overpriced horse is Wing Alone. He is on a very fair mark, has won races off marks in this range in the past and is back to his optimum 10f trip. Southwell the last time is a form to ignore as he didn't take to the surface, and he was outstayed over 12f before But he won off 88 at Lingfield in fine style before against a runner-up who finished 3rd in a Listed contest as well as being successful in a hot Handicap subsequently. Spes Nostra @ 6/1 PP - 5pts win Wing Alone @ 14/1 VC - 5pts win

[geeuppy]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 11th January 2015 1.20 Chelmsford - zamoura 1.50 Chelmsford - luis vaz de torres 2.20 chelmfsord - zac brown 2.50 Chelmsford - super kid 3.20 Chelmsford - rizal park 3.50 Chelmsford - copper cavalier