snyena Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Just starting a small list, I am curious to see what people have to add. I am more interested in various cryptic errors rather than blatant newbie mistakes like Martingale, but any input is welcome. Who knows, I might even discover what a mug I am myself. :) 1. Combos are for mugs. While this is true under 'normal' circumstances, I can think of a staking plan and a specific type of high strikerate bets where doubles would yield more in the long run than singles. Of course, the basic prerequisite of profitable betting (value) has to be met. 2. Low Odds are bad. 1.4 shots (71.43% chance of winning if the odds were fair) aren't bad if they have an 80% or bigger chance of winning. They are excellent, because high strikerate combined with excellent value allows for higher stakes than value 'only' at higher odds. 3. The Bookmaker's Overround is the bookmakers yield. I was surprised to find this somewhere. Surely overround is just a sum of fictious 'probabilities' for all the possible outcomes, whereas yield tells you more about how much the bookie makes per one unit invested. An example would be a coin toss priced at 1.9 for both outcomes. The long term yield is exactly 5%, whereas the overround above 100% is 5.26316% (1/1.9 + 1/1.9). Similar, but not the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) Snyena, 3 good points there, - off the top of my (fast balding) head, one of the biggest betting fallacies usually assumed by amateur bettors is that a previous random event can directly effect or influence the next outcome or 'event result'. I'm thinking, in particular, of lotteries, ('hot' numbers etc.), coin tossing etc. Backing high odds in football bets will also lose you money, over the long term, and because an event hasn't happened for a long time - such as a lottery number unselected for 38 draws - it will happen very soon. That's a load of b*ll*cks. Loads more, but I can't think of them at the moment. Spreadman.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) My two favorites at this time of the year are really two sides of the same coin. 1. A football team is more likely to win because they need the points. Usually quoted about teams trying to avoid relegation. It's bollox. If a team need the points to avoid relegation it's because they havent been good enough to win. To suddenly expect them to wake up one day near the end of the season and decide to play well defies any logic but I can almost guarantee you'll see it quoted in the Brit forum this weekend. and the other side of the coint 2. A team is a good bet to be beaten if they have nothing to play for. Leaving aside the obvious cases where teams field weakened teams and also leaving aside that the odds compilers probably build this factor into the odds themselves anyway, teams will defy this "logic" so regularly that it becomes a nonsense. I don't have to look too far for an example, Blackburn (with nothing to play for) coming back to draw against West Brom (who had to win) tonight. No wonder the bookies are rich:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) I completly agree with you on point 1 there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazabroad Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) Completly agree on both points there ODM but its obvious to anybody that if a number hasn´t come up for 38 weeks then its gonna come up soon, Spread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) On average, once in the next 8 or 9 draws, Gazabroad,......................................................or maybe the next draw.................................. or maybe not for another 38 draws................. :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure :unsure ...........:clap Spreadm:duden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazabroad Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) My personal favourite is the rollover. Better put on twice as much cos its up to €1000000 or whatever. Me, I couldn´t win it at 1million but bound to win now at 20 million with my 2 extra lines:rollin :rollin :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) AHHHHHHH but youre getting better odds you see. So if you stake according to value....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazabroad Posted April 26, 2005 Share Posted April 26, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) In that case..............Mmmmmmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) I'm not sure it counts as a misconception, but I think most of us have a tendency to seriously underestimate the effect luck can have in the short to medium term. If you bet on even money chances with a long-term yield of 10% (which is not bad), then you still have around a 13% chance of losing money over 100 bets. If you bet on 2/1 chances with a long-term yield of 10%, then you have about a 1 in 4 chance of losing money over 100 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkayer Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) My two favorites at this time of the year are really two sides of the same coin. 1. A football team is more likely to win because they need the points. Usually quoted about teams trying to avoid relegation. It's bollox. If a team need the points to avoid relegation it's because they havent been good enough to win. To suddenly expect them to wake up one day near the end of the season and decide to play well defies any logic but I can almost guarantee you'll see it quoted in the Brit forum this weekend. and the other side of the coint 2. A team is a good bet to be beaten if they have nothing to play for. Leaving aside the obvious cases where teams field weakened teams and also leaving aside that the odds compilers probably build this factor into the odds themselves anyway, teams will defy this "logic" so regularly that it becomes a nonsense. I don't have to look too far for an example, Blackburn (with nothing to play for) coming back to draw against West Brom (who had to win) tonight. No wonder the bookies are rich:DDisagree with you here. My experience is that it's good value in backing hometeams in desperate need for points against awayteams with nothing to play for. What's usually the case however with matches like these, is that they get overhyped and the odds sink like a stone towards kickoff. But if you're out early you should profit on matches like those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) It's all about opinions kkayer.I'm sure there will be plenty of live examples you can give us in the coming few weeks.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted April 27, 2005 Share Posted April 27, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) The next one is: - Only winners pay overound. If you win around 55% of your bets you will pay half of the overound set by a bookie. - If you expect to have 60% hit rate , you will not win your next 12/20 or 18/30 bets. It is the most likely possibility but you can go 8/20 or 16/20 as well. Short-term record has nothing to do with your overall skills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted April 28, 2005 Share Posted April 28, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) My two favorites at this time of the year are really two sides of the same coin. 1. A football team is more likely to win because they need the points. Usually quoted about teams trying to avoid relegation. It's bollox. If a team need the points to avoid relegation it's because they havent been good enough to win. To suddenly expect them to wake up one day near the end of the season and decide to play well defies any logic but I can almost guarantee you'll see it quoted in the Brit forum this weekend. and the other side of the coint 2. A team is a good bet to be beaten if they have nothing to play for. Leaving aside the obvious cases where teams field weakened teams and also leaving aside that the odds compilers probably build this factor into the odds themselves anyway, teams will defy this "logic" so regularly that it becomes a nonsense. I don't have to look too far for an example, Blackburn (with nothing to play for) coming back to draw against West Brom (who had to win) tonight. No wonder the bookies are rich:D It's an interesting one this ODM. Like you say it's all about opinions and we're not likely to prove this one way or the other. However, I just thought I'd put my two penneth in. I think it can sometimes have an effect, for example when Arsenal were on their unbeaten season. Towards the end of the season they seemed to get quite a few draws against teams they were expected to beat. I put this down to the fact that a draw was a good result for both teams i.e. Arsenal had wrapped up the league and were jsut concerned with not loosing, and if you're southampton or whoever, a draw against arsenal is a good result. I also remember hearing a rumour that Ron Atkinson got sacked from Wednesday (in his 2nd spell) because he didn't take the last game against Crystal Palace seriously. Basically we were safe from relegation so he wasn't bothered, but us getting beat cost the club a few million in prize money cos we dropped about 5 places in the league. I think most managers will be wary of doing an 'Atkinson', and probably reel off the same team talk of - 'These fans work 5 days a week then spend all their money coming here to watch you idle bastards' etc. towards the end of the season. So, generally I think I agree with you, but I wouldn't rule it out completely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted April 28, 2005 Share Posted April 28, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) ....oh and another thing, My favourite misconception is that if you spend 2 weeks putting together a spreadsheet with some degree level maths and some fancy formatting on it, that the selections it makes must be good ones. rubbish in, rubbish out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidcampbell Posted April 28, 2005 Share Posted April 28, 2005 Re: Favourite Betting Misconceptions (Among Relatively Experienced Punters) nonsense that you hear from time to time in the bookies such as ...... "henry to score first and arsenal to win 5-2.... 200-1. that must be value" what? why? :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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