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Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November

Smarty72

By Smarty72
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Smarty72

Smarty72

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15.20 Ayr - Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase - 3m 1f Just the 3 runners...... Vasco Du Mee - 5yo trained By Gordon Elliott in Ireland who will be having 6th run over fences. Easy winner over fences for the 1st time at Down Royal on the 1st day of November. Has completed all 5 previous runs over fences and will have no problems with the trip or ground. Top weight and OR 130 by UK handicapper (125 by Irish). Real stayer and sets the standard. May have been over rated by handicapper. Wicklow Gold - 6yo trained by N Alexander having 2nd start over fences. Was previously with Willie Mullins and made chase debut in June when 2nd at Downpatrick. Was a better hurdler than Vasco Du Mee but gets 6lb today from Vasco Du Mee. Stephen Mulqueen is the jockey claiming an additional 7lb. Has won a hurdles on soft. Ballyben - 6yo trained by Lucinda Russell having 7th start over fences. Won last time out but may be suited by better ground. Runs from out of handicap (carries 2lb more than OR). Was well beaten by Vasco Du Mee (2nd) at Ayr in a novice chase over 2m 5f when 28 lengths behind (received 4lb) and unlikely to turn the tables today even though receiving 19lb. Originally looked at the race and thought Vasco Du Mee was a certainty but now think that he may be over rated and have to much weight to carry. Wicklow Gold looks better treated on hurdles form but has a disadvantage against 2 rivals who have had more jumping experience and the benefit of a recent run. Ballyben receives a lot of weight from his rivals but does not look a great deal better than his handicap mark. Wicklow Gold has a Conditional jockey on board claiming a valuable 7lb and could be open to improvement. If this was a hurdle would be carrying top weight. 1pt Win - Wicklow Gold @ 4\1 Paddy Power BOG

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Boulder5111

Boulder5111

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November nice write up Smarty - good luck :ok K5.50 Courier 1pt Win 8/1 Bet365 This bookie opened the betting at 14/1 for this and that didn't last long. It's been trimmed across the board and this unexposed horse could well start even shorter than the current 8/1. The horse hails from a particuarly potent trainer/jockey combo and it's often a hint to the horses chances when he books this particular 3lb claimer. He came from out of the clouds to win for this trainer on Monday and this unexposed horse is making its first appearance for its new trainer here and the money could be very significant. Closely related to some decent types that have won off marks in the 80s and 90s so the 52 here with the jockey taking off a further 3lb looks like potentially a very generous mark.

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robertob

robertob

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November 14.10 Exeter: Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) - I feel this is quite a hot race with most of those runners in the line-up very likely to do better over fences. The market reflects that to a certain extend, nonetheless Ballyculla, currently trading as the favourite, seems to short to my eyes. Surely one who may be able to improve further going chasing now, but I feel he is on quite a high mark already, and first has to show that he is capable of 133, now over fences. Minellahalfcentury is one I look forward to see with huge interest. He is one who should have plenty of improvement in him. He always looked a chaser, and his excellent point to point is confirming this notion. He finished a 2l beaten runner-up behind Foxrock in a point-to-point in Ireland two years ago, and the winner went on to become a multiple Grade 2 winner of fences. Under rules, Minellahalfcentury was rather progressive, resulting in a nice Handicap hurdle win in February. His subsequent disappointing performance at Cheltenham may have been the result of quick ground or breathing problems. He had since then a wind op and that is obviously a concern. However it may also help him to improve even further. Potentially he could improve past all his rivals here and looks not badly treated on official rating. Virtuel D'oudon looks a stayer through and through and has a fine pedigree pointing towards more improvement over the big obstacles. However he was disappointing on his comeback run and judged on that his opening mark looks stiff enough. Moorlands Mist and Chase The Spud can't be ruled out but they look up against it here in my mind. Desert Joe is one who should be better over fences. He is a ptp winner and has a nice pedigree suggesting chasing will be his game. He's been off for roughly two years and may need this run. Undoubtedly the horse that appears to be the most likely winner is Harry's Farewell. A point to point winner, nicely improving over hurdles, runaway winner at Kempton in February, he is potentially on a lenient mark and must go really well from bottom of the weights here. Looks likely to progress further over fences too. Harry's Farewell @ 7/2 Coral

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November Exeter 1:40 - Too Generous WIN @ 7/1 Bet365 American Life won well the other day and although he has a 7 pound rise in the weights, he still looks reasonably well treated. However his price reflects that and I will take a chance on the Pipe horse who ran well when 3rd of this mark of 118 back in May when last seen and can be expected to improve.

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Dund0n

Dund0n

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November 7.20 Kempton - Georgian Bay win @ 5/1 Bet365 This looks to be a very competitive race but I have my doubts about a few of them and I feel Georgian Bay has the best chance. Georgian Bay has not been in good form recently but since his last win he has raced exclusively on turf whereas, going by his record, he seems to prefer the artificial surfaces. He has also been contending with what looks to have been a high mark. However he has had 2 wins and a place on the AW with both wins coming over C&D. His last win was over C&D and was also from the same mark as today so he looks nicely handicapped for a big run back on his favourite surface. Grey Mirage won this last year but is 7lb higher and would need a career best to take this. The same can be said for Badr Al Badoor. Patentar smashed Georgian Bay at Lingfield but Georgian Bay is much better off at the weights and this race is also the AW debut for Patentar. Frontier Fighter might need the run and so might Magic City who has been off since August. However Magic city ran a good second in this last year and has been going close recently so I wouldn't be surprised if he goes well. Therefore while I can't totally write off the opposition as they all possess a chance. even though they have questions to answer, I feel that Georgian Bay who is tried and tested here might be able to benefit from a declining mark to continue his 100% C&D record.

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santos_

santos_

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November Bangor 2.00 - Dursey Sound (1pts win, 9/1 William Hill) Ran a very good race back in September when finishing 2nd to Mart Lane in a Market Rasen Listed event but was well beaten on last start in a hot Cheltenham race but I'm willing to forgive that run as this doesn't look as hard a contest.

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corky

corky

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November

1430 bangor 1pt win night bachelor 7/4 bet365 Tough race with unknown form on show but im with the inform warren getreaux yard a winner last time out and with stable jockey gary sheehan on board
Should have been warren greatrex
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BillyHills

BillyHills

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November 2.00 Bangor: Bob Ford 9/2 BetVic/SJ Won last time out wearing a hood for the first time and hopefully it will work here too. Many people have said the 12lbs rise is too much after his easy Chepstow victory but his mark of 132 is not that high compared to when he was made favourite for a better race than this at Haydock last season. He stays well goes on the ground and comes from a yard in form and now the fav is out its a wide open race.

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Tipsterix

Tipsterix

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Wednesday 12th November 15:05 Enghien: VADERO D'AIRY @ 2/1 Bet365 Ladbrokes Undefeated in three starts over hurdles, the well-regarded VADERO D'AIRY (1) has against him a long absence as he has not been seen in public since February 2013, but if Jacques Ortet has moved him out for the Prix Le Pontet at Enghien today is that the gelded son of Anzillero looks fit & ready to do himself justice.

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