scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process

[dimayall]

Hello guys ! I need your help T here is a scientific article "Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process? A. Heuer, C. Muller, and O. Rubner" http://arxiv.org/pdf/1002.0797.pdf My english is poor in scientific texts ,so need your help where the basic equation ? how to get the estimates for Poisson process ? Please help me guys

[Grex]

Re: scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process Hi, Dimayall, I am a native English speaker, but only a simple-minded civil engineer. I tried to read the article, but the statistical mathematics is far too complicated. At first, I assumed the continued reference to "fitness" was physical fitness, but apparently it simply means the strength of the team based on recent performance. I notice two of the authors are from the Faculties of Physical and Organic Chemistry at a German university - so, I am not sure why they are publishing a paper on the statistical prediction of football matches. For me, you would have to be a mathematical genius to follow the methodology - there are much simpler statistical models available. I should try those.