Wisey's Asian Handicapping

[wisey10]

I'm a novice with 'systems' so please forgive me if I make any mistakes here. I'm a long term Asian Handicap punter who mainly operates in the championship. I usually use a combination of what I perceive as value whilst taking into account external factors such as form, team news, injuries e.t.c to determine which bets I take. Ive decided to do a paper trail though on a new system which purely uses value to pick selections and therefore doesn't include my own thoughts or any other external influences to determine selections. The system itself is very basic and simple , I hope can explain it clearly: There are 3 tiers that the league is divided into; Positions 1-8 = Tier A Positions 9-16= Tier B Positions 17-24 = Tier C A side playing someone in the same tier will be awarded a level ball handicap. Tier A v B and B v C would see a 0.25 line. And Tier A v C would take a 0.5 line as a base. We then have to factor in home advantage which for the sake of the system we will value at 0.25. Example: Home Away Tier A -0.25 v Tier A +0.25 Tier A -0.5 v Tier B +0.5 Tier A -0.75 v Tier C + 0.75 There are a couple of slight exceptions to this. A team has to be at least 3 places above /below another for the tier system to work. If they are within 2 positions of each other then a level ball base will be used with the simple home/away 0.25 handicap to be added. E.g team in 8th position (tier a) v team in 9th (tier B) would be a level ball still even though they are a different tiers. Similarly a team in 15th v 17th would be. Im sorry if I'm not articulating this well. A chart/spreadsheet would be the best way of illustrating this but I'm clueless on that front and just on an iPad. Assuming you are still with me, we ow move on to how the system determines the value. If the bookies make a side +0.25 better off than the system thinks they should be, then a point bet is made on that selection. If the real odds are giving a team +0.5 or better on the handicap than the line on the system then a 2 point bet will be staked. There will be a starting Bank of 100 points.I will be using the championship only. I will continue this with another post shortly...

[wisey10]

Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping So let's look at tonight's championship fixtures as examples: (All odds Bet365) Leeds (Tier B) + 0 2.10 v Reading (Tier B) +0 1.80 Wolves (Tier a) -0.75 1.825 v Huddersfield (Tier C) +0.75 2.075 Fulham (Tier C) -0.5 1.875 v Bolton (Tier C) +0.5 2.025 The system makes: Leeds -0.25 = 1 Point Bet Wolves -0.75 = No Bet Bolton +0.25 = 1 Point Bet I should have have added in previous post that odds need to be a minimum of 1.80 for bet to be a goer. So to get the ball rolling, two bets tonight..... 1 Point Leeds +0 @ 2.10 1 Point Bolton +0.5 @ 2.025