Creating my own odds

[scotty657]

Well after a few weeks of tough luck betting last month I decided to revamp my betting style and begin creating my own odds for races, in search of they much debated 'value' bets. I practiced without betting on a few races and my tissues were surprisingly accurate. I was creating the books with absolutely no idea of what the bookmakers priced up. Here's an example from a handicap at Wolverhampton last night: (I've lost the starting SP's on the exchanges, these from Sporting Life on-field SP's) My odds SP Lady Crossmar 7/4 7/4 Steelriver 4/1 2/1 Be Royale 6/1 11/2 Galatian 9/1 10/1 Hipz 15/2 11/1 Baltic Prince 14/1 20/1 Sakhalin Star 50/1 33/1 Two Pancakes 100/1 66/1 So I had a small bet on Hipz, finished nowhere. That's the problem, the ones I'm finding to be value bets aren't winning. And as you can see it's a fairly similar book, should I be trying to get it tighter? It's happening with the football as well, coming up with prices very similar to the bookies yet nothing winning that I'm backing. Should I be backing the favourites who I maybe rate at 11/8 and offer 8/5 or the outsider which is sitting at 6/1 even though I see them as a 9/2 shot?

[Toast]

Re: Creating my own odds Years ago it was proberley worth doing when bookies actually thought for themselves and priced up certain events accordingly, despite what other bookies were pricing up. Eg, it wasn't rare for hills for example to price up a rugby match, as say, Warrington +6 against, say, Wigan, whereas, Laddies would price it Warrington -6, giving a 12 point difference. Then they got wise to the arbers and now it is very rare to see more than a 2 point difference. Sorting your own tissue in match bets, based on your own thoughts and ratings is the way to go and then betting accordingly. When it comes to horse racing, it's pointless really, as the bookies won't be that much different with the first 5/6 in the betting. As an exaggerated example, if A derby winner was priced up at 1/100 to beat a class 6 winner from Southwell over 12f who was priced at 100/1, yet your tissue said 1/50 and 50/1, would you bet the Southwell winner at double your sp? At the same time, we've all missed or not bet 5/1 shots that we thought should have been bigger when they have won. Does that mean our perception of value was right or wrong? IMO, value only exists when the horse you've bet has won, irrespective of price. The choice you have if wether you take the price or not. Good luck with your approach though, would be interesting to find out how you get on in future. Ps, I know an on course bookie who has made profits for the last 20+ years by not reading the form book, but by laying the horses to lose x amount. Ie, the 6/4 to lose 2k, 2nd fav 1.5k and so on. When he has liabilities of 2k matched at 6/4 he will slash the odds to say 11/10, meaning no normal thinking punter will take that price and look elsewhere, leaving the bookie in the position to get all the other runners in the book.