Flat Racing - Wednesday 10th September

[robertob]

20.15 Kempton: Conditions Stakes, Class 4 -

Very interesting little race here with plenty of really nice prospects in the line-up. When I was looking through it last night, without having prices, I was wondering how the market would look like this morning. Seeing the prices this morning, I am certainly a bit baffled. A quick check-in with any runner in this field first though: Mr Quicksilver: Expensive newcomer, cost €300k as a yearling and lovely bred with Group winning form on sire and dam side. Also a full brother to a French 2.000 Guineas and has some big race entries. Will have to be ready and live up to pedigree in order to win this against tough opposition. Restorer: Impressive

winner

on debut at Ffos Las. Quickened nicely and won hands and heels by 3 lengths. More required here, but should be competitive. Dam was All-Weather

winner

. Sharp Sailor: Was a €140k yearling, made half of that when sold a 2yo Fine pedigree and related to good horses. Won in excellent fashion on second career outing at Lingfield lto, producing some impressive change of gear. Form works out already. More to come. St Lawrence Gap: Shocking debut. Need to improve dramatically to be in with a chance. Local Time: Well bred, step up in trip no problem, i nfact should relish the additional furlong on pedigree. Won in super impressive style maiden here at kempton lto, going clear easily in closing stages. Form strong and works out well with couple of subsequent winners, including one who went on to perform with loads of credit in Group company. Receives weight from the boys here.

Verdict:

Local Time seems to set a very high standard given his strong win here at Kempton lto. He's bound to improve and looks a nice prospect. However his sires record with 2yo over 1m isn't particularly impressive and it might well be that Local Time turns out to be a better 3yo and find this test today tough. On that basis the price is too short given the strong field she has to beat today. Sharp Sailor makes plenty of appeal on paper and form too. More to come from him too. Bit the forgotten horse seems to be the newcomer Mr Quicksilver. Drifting currently in the betting and we don't know what he is like, but he boosts such a strong pedigree and is related to plenty of good horses, that he must be of interest here. Connections wouldn't start him in such a strong racing if he wouldn't have shown anything at home. That goes along with his entries for big sales races next month. So I'll be taking him a chance on him.

--- Mr Quicksilver @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

21.15 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap -

Very poor race and you can pick holes into the forms of any of the more fancied horses. That gives longshot Settle For Red a chance to find back to form. He is down to a very interesting handicap mark after a couple of disappointing efforts since racing in the UK. In fact he is down to his last winning mark of 59, when he won a Handicap at Dundalk. He subsequently followed up with another decent performance of six pounds higher. Since May he is care of Jeremy Gask who didn't find the key to unlock the potential of this horse yet, but as outlined, after three poor runs, the mark is down to something workable and it is interesting to see the visor on for the first, which bring out one or two pounds of improvement. On that evidence I give him a chance to well in this field. ---

Settle For Red @ 16/1 VC - 2pts win

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 10th September 5.45 Kempton - 2pts win Noverre To Go @ 5/1 (Bet365) Runs well on the all-weather and this represents a drop in grade. Needs them to go a nice solid tempo that he can slot in behind of from his wide draw. Ran well at Brighton earlier in the year when rattling home but he's always shaped as a touch better on the artificial surfaces. Wasn't really suited by the race last time which was better than this and with James Doyle on board can take the beating. 6.15 Kempton - 2pts win More Drama @ 11/1 (Bet365) Put in probably his best maiden performance last time when running here behind a smart animal (won since). Did some decent late work despite the fact he was always going to be outclassed. No surprise given his sire's record is substantially better on the all-weather than turf and now handicapping can go very well. 6.45 Kempton - 2pts win Shining Glitter @ 4/1 (Bet365) Perhaps more exposed than a couple of these but based on his runs in handicaps should be capable of winning a race like this. Has looked best on the all-weather and shaped well over shorter at Lingfield two starts ago. Upped to this trip last time and was only held by a progressive type (rated much higher now) and under ideal conditions can get off the mark. 7.15 Kempton - 2pts win Royal Warranty @ 6/1 (Hills) Has been let in a bit lightly here for handicap debut and registers as decent value for all this is competitive. Has done little wrong to date - running well over shorter twice on the all-weather before landing a maiden on turf at Bath. The second and third have franked the form (both rated higher than my selection here) and based on his opening mark under ideal conditions can go very well.